Gallup Finds Significant Drop in Unemployment During October-9% to 8.3%(this didn't happen last Oct)

[Pirate Smile]

Gallup Finds Significant Drop in Unemployment During October
Unemployment, without seasonal adjustment, fell to 8.3% in the 30 days ending Oct. 23

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 8.3% for the 30 days ending Oct. 23 -- down sharply from 9.0% for the 30 days ending Sept. 4. Over the same period last year, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate was steady or increasing, suggesting the lower unemployment Gallup has measured in recent weeks is not fully the result of seasonal hiring patterns. As a result, the government next week is likely to report a seasonally adjusted October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.







The Government's Next Unemployment Report

Gallup is documenting a clear decline in unemployment and underemployment during October. Modeling based on statistical comparisons of Gallup's unemployment data to the government's seasonally adjusted data over time suggests that the Bureau of Labor Statistics could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0% on the first Friday in November.

The improvement in Gallup's measures may partly reflect seasonal factors, because Gallup's data are not seasonally adjusted. However, Gallup did not see a similar decline in unemployment at this time last year, suggesting seasonal impacts are not the only factors in play.

-snip-
Regardless, this improvement in the U.S. employment situation appears real right now -- and, in turn, this suggests that those on Wall Street might find themselves rethinking their expectations about the economy and jobs as the year comes to a close.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150365/Gallup-Finds-Significant-Drop-Unemployment-During-October.aspx

[Arkana]

1. Without even reading the responses to this thread, I know what they will all say.

How sad is that?

[NatBurner]

3. but, but...

*open nozzle*
*warm spritz of massengill™*

lather, rinse, repeat

[CreekDog]

2. It's anecdotal on my part, but traffic has grown steadily worse the past month

it's usually worse after Labor Day anyway (summer ends, classes start, vacations end, etc.). but during the worst of the recession, it never got that much more heavy (at least in my direction). this year, however, since summer it's gotten worse and especially as fall started.

[Pirate Smile]

4. I have a lot of new construction since September going on in my area and the stores seem

pretty busy - and lots of hiring signs so it is looking good.

Back in August when there was all the "double-dip" chatter, for the first time in years, a lot of new construction started springing up. The dissonance was jarring. I haven't been surprised by the better then expected economic numbers that have been coming out.

[Andy823]

5. I wonder

If republicans in congress had not been doing everything they could to "CUT" jobs since last years election, and if they had actually been helping to INCREASE jobs, what the number would be now? And if the big corporations that pay those republicans in congress to do their best to make sure Obama does NOT get elected would have cut loose some of the "TRILLIONS" they are sitting on right now, how many more jobs could have been saved, or created?

I all the years I have been watching politics, I have never seen one party do more damage to this country than the republicans have since Obama got elected. They made the mess were are, along with George W. Bush, but they also have done their best to make this mess WORSE, not better, and they should be held accountable for that when this country votes next year, and I really think they will, no matter what the right wing trolls, and Obama haters here will try and tell you otherwise!

[Pirate Smile]

6. It has been shocking how they are intentionally trying to damage the economy.

It was shocking that before President Obama was even sworn in, they decided to do nothing.

The country was falling off a cliff and Republicans decided (according to Sen. Spector) that it probably wouldn't recover enough by the 2010 election (according to economists) for people to be pleased so if they just opposed everything then they would benefit. They have doubled down on that since 2010 (because now they actually have power).

It is stunning that they truly don't give a damn about the people hurting in the country but, then again, I suppose they don't consider them "their" people. "Their" people (the well-off) are going just fine.

[Laelth]

10. Indeed. "Their people" are doing quite well. n/t

-Laelth

[Andy823]

11. Yes I agree

When a party starts out with their main goal to defeat the president 4 years down the road, and in this case even before he was sworn in, it should make every singe american stop and think about just how much damage an agenda like that has caused this country, and how much it has hurt the economy, and job creation.

For the life of me I can't see how they can believe this kind of "plan" was going to work for them, and not come back to bite them it the butt. Sure their was a slim chance it might work, but it seems like somebody in the party would have had enough brains to figure out that if they became the party of NO, NO, NO, from day one, it was going to put them in a bad light with the "real" people of this country. I think the teabaggers had a lot to do with them going down this path, and they figured that since the tea party crowd helped them take back the house, they would use that on down the road. To bad they didn't see far enough ahead to figure out the tea party was going to hurt them more than help them, and that most americans would see just how insane the tea party really was, and stop supporting their extremely radical agenda!

[1StrongBlackMan]

18. I was thinking pretty much ...

the same thing. I wonder where we'd be if republicans (and the bluedogs) had not decided that now was the time to destroy, er ... I mean, shrink government.

Think about it ... for all the private sector gains, we're seeing public sector loses; where would we be if we weren't bleeding those public sector jobs?

[WI_DEM]

7. psychologically it will be good to have unemployment below 9%

for the first time in--how long?--if it actually happens.

[Pirate Smile]

8. It had dropped into the 8's earlier this year - Feb & March.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. There will be a psychological event coming soon

Hiring will be in vogue again. And the GOP will be ever so pissed.

[Enrique]

12. the withdrawal from Iraq might be it n/t

[southernyankeebelle]

13. Don't worry republicans will want to take credit for that. Anything

bad they give that credit to Obama and the democrats.

[eridani]

14. That would be nice if unemployment figures as calculated--

--had anything to do with reality.

[Pirate Smile]

15. When they show bad news, people accept them but if they show any good news, people dismiss them.

They are either a valid way to identify something or not - both for the good & for the bad.

There are a lot of hiring signs out right now. I know because I've seen them all over the place lately. It isn't crazy to think this survey has picked up on some hiring.

This isn't the government. It is Gallup.

We'll find out what the Government says about unemployment a week from Friday.

I hope this is true. I'm sure everyone (except Republicans) hopes this is true.

I don't understant the necessity of dismissing good news on the economy.

[eridani]

17. Good news would be an end to structural unemployment

All this Pollyanna nonsense is just a statement that the current utterly devastating "new normal" is acceptable, and that we should be fine with incremental decreases.

It reminds me of announcing to a bunch of people who are still drowning how wonderful it was that a rescue boat saved 10% of them.

[bhikkhu]

19. Better news would be when every living adult doesn't have to work for wages

We actually have a much higher labor participation rate than has been the historic norm, and a much higher rate than most countries. What we don't have is a society that gives a damn about anyone not willing and able to work for a wage.

And also we have a wage system that provides too little to most workers to support a household. This compels most people, skilled or not, to go out and scrounge for work that will also not support a household.

In some societies, and in some times here, wages were higher and there was much greater opportunity for people to fill creative or nurturing or simply human roles...

[eridani]

20. Good points all. What they imply is--

--that we need reduced work hours at higher wages. Lavorare meno! Lavorare tutti!

[ieoeja]

26. Agreed. Technological advancement should mean we are working fewer hours and retiring younger.

Instead, we create an artificial environment where people go hungry because they don't have money. Noone should go hungry unless there is a shortage of food, not a shortage of money.

[fujiyama]

16. It's only anecdotal

but after a bit of a slowdown since May, I'm getting quite a few phone calls from recruiters. It's kind of a rough personal gauge of the job market. I just mute the phone because it's at least several calls a day. Someone I know that runs a business ended up with three projects all within the course of 2-3 weeks.

I'd be interested in hearing the numbers for manufacturing, especially of heavy industrial equipment, the automotive sector, and durable goods. Construction would also be a good indicator of a possible improvement in the job market. We may be seeing an uptick here but it will be interesting to see how Gallup's measurement compares with govt. numbers. Anyone have any rough past comparisons of Gallup's numbers with the labor department's?

[DCBob]

21. nice trends..

keep it going!

[quaker bill]

22. This I can say

I run a small art jewelry business on the side. I actually make the product the very old fashioned way, and I sell it at juried art festivals. I got in the business in late 2006 and sold pretty well through most of 2007, then came 2008. I have been selling enough to keep my self in business since 2008 literally because I do not pay the labor (me). Every dime I have turned has covered costs or has been reinvested.

I just did 2 shows and for the first time since 2008 I am in the black with cash to spare and two more events in November fully paid for. My sales have not hit 2006-2007 levels, but have come up to 80+ percent of that. As important, much of my model has depended on quick sales of smaller affordable pieces, low margin, but good volume. This was the part of the model that failed from 2008 on. Since 2008 the business has been living on selling the occasional high end piece to someone with a large wad of cash or good credit. Folks I would have sold the affordable stuff to, looked at it, liked it, but could not afford it.

The last two shows, these folks are buying again, not as many and not as fast, they really look things over and think about it, but then many of them buy. Interestingly in 2006-2007, these folks would just pull out the plastic. Today they bring cash, pay in cash, and when they run out of the cash they brought, they stop buying. But, they are bringing cash again.

I am getting a direct sense that it has turned a corner.

[Pirate Smile]

23. Thanks for that info. That is what I feel is happening too.

[Pirate Smile]

24. kick

[Safetykitten]

25. Information from the good Gallup, as compared to the bad one when it reports...

President Obama's relection polls.