Perhaps health insurance stocks have gone up because the Dow has gone up at the same pace. Let's see

[mcablue]

We shouldn't be simplistic and jump to conclusions that the latest health care news have caused a spike in health insurers' stocks. Perhaps the Dow Jones has gone up at a comparable rate in the last few days. There's only one way to know. Let's go to the statistics:



As you can see, the light blue line represent the Dow in general. That line is roughly flat during the past 10 days or so, when big events have rocked the health care reform news world, whereas health insurance stocks have experienced a surge.

How do health insurers' stocks compare to the Dow in general? Those lines represent United Health, Aetna, Humana and WellPoint.

What can we conclude regarding these numbers?

Here's the link to the graph: http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI

[DJ13]

1. If the market expected this to hurt profits, the stocks would be lower

Its pretty basic stuff.

[mcablue]

2. Unrec'ers, I would bend the lines in order to make you feel good. But I can't

Trust me. I do not want to hurt anyone's feelings with this hard data.

[gravity]

3. Health insurance stocks had been down since Obama won the nomination

out of fear of what he was going to do to the industry. Despite the small boosts today, health stocks had been down 40% since Obama was the beginning of 2008.

[mcablue]

10. You only mention "today" as a good day for their stocks

But the graph does not show just a one day boost. The surge began roughly when the streak of dead liberal measures and amendments (public option, drug reimportation) began. We do not simply see a one-day blip in that graph.

[Unvanguard]

12. But the poster's point still holds.

If he or she is right about the pattern, then the recent stock price upswing (assuming they are actually connected to the health care bill) reflects a judgment that the bill without a public option is better than the bill with one: it does not mean that investors think the bill without a public option is better than the status quo.

[quiller4]

4. Your graph doesn't go far enough back.

Insurance stocks in general are down from where they were in March-April whereas all the exchanges are up from their March lows. The insurance stocks have rebounded a little bit since they didn't take the hit they expected but they are far below the DOW and the S & P for the year.

[dave29]

5. I have seen a lot of creative graph work today

It is silly to use the short term market as an indicator of anything except for gambling habits

That is not to say there is no merit to the stocks rising due to some perceptions about the healthcare bill. Ironically all the people talking about it today probably helped the bump.

[pa28]

6. delete

[ipaint]

7. Well the house could always reinsert the public option and the senate

could send out a rumor they are considering keeping it in and then watch what happens to ins. stock prices.

[SpartanDem]

8. Lets look at their performace YTD

I don't know how to post the graph YTD Atena is +19.44%, Wellpoint +42.43, Humana + 20.82%, United Health +20.94%, the Dow +18.66% with the exception of Wellpoint since about April all of their stocks have generally followed the Dow.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1261442481397&chddm=95404&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXDJX:.DJI;NYSE:UNH;NYSE:WLP;NYSE:HUM&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=NYSE:AET&ntsp=0">LINK

[treestar]

9. This one is way out there

Who even cares if the bill does good?

It still doesn't prove anything. Very oversimplistic, I'd need four economists at least to make a case that it is related.

Hatred of an abstract organization this great should not trump reform if it helps people.

This post is not even in favor of the bill, Congress or the President. It is merely in favor of information rather than jumping to fun conclusions based on logical fallacies.

[Honeycombe8]

11. Windfall profits for the cos. and their shareholders. Profits provided by you and me.

Glad I still have a job where I have to work almost 6 days every week and get only one day off for Christmas. Lots of things coming up for me to pay for! Oh, and no cost containment for MY insurance, since my employer provides that. So my premiums will cont. to go up, which will affect my salary. And I may get taxed for that benefit, too, in the end!

Oh, joy! Oh, rapture!

St. Peter, don't you call me, 'cause I can't go! I owe my soul to the country store!