538.com: Why the G.O.P. Cannot Compromise

[brooklynite]

The chart that I’m going to show you is one of the more important ones that we’ve presented at FiveThirtyEight in some time. It helps explain a lot of what’s going on in American politics today, from the negotiations over the federal debt ceiling to the Republican presidential primaries. And it’s pretty simple, really, although it took me some time to track down the data.

Here’s what the chart will show: The Republican Party is dependent, to an extent unprecedented in recent political history, on a single ideological group. That group, of course, is conservatives. It isn’t a bad thing to be in favor with conservatives: by some definitions they make up about 40 percent of voters. But the terms ‘Republican’ and ‘conservative’ are growing closer and closer to being synonyms; fewer and fewer nonconservatives vote Republican, and fewer and fewer Republican voters are not conservative.

The chart, culled from exit poll data, shows the ideological disposition of those people who voted Republican for the House of Representatives in the elections of 1984 through 2010. Until fairly recently, about half of the people who voted Republican for Congress (not all of whom are registered Republicans) identified themselves as conservative, and the other half as moderate or, less commonly, liberal. But lately the ratio has been skewing: in last year’s elections, 67 percent of those who voted Republican said they were conservative, up from 58 percent two years earlier and 48 percent ten years ago.



This might seem counterintuitive. Didn’t the Republicans win a sweeping victory last year? They did, but it had mostly to do with changes in turnout. Whereas in 2008, conservatives made up 34 percent of those who cast ballots, that number shot up to 42 percent last year. Moderates, on the other hand, made up just 38 percent of those who voted in 2010, down from 44 percent in 2008 (the percentage of liberals was barely changed). The 2010 election was the first since exit polls began in 1976 in which a plurality of the voters said they were conservatives rather than moderates.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/why-the-g-o-p-cannot-compromise/

Here's the OTHER chart:



While self-identified liberals are a growing proportion of Democratic voters, the largest share is (and has been for a considerable period) moderates. We've pushed out most of the conservatives, but some people seem to want to, in the name of ideological purity, have the moderate voters follow them out the door, rather than build a center-LEFT coalition.

[rucky]

1. What's so conservative about corporate welfare?

Do they really support gaping tax loopholes for the very wealthy? I thought they resented everyone who pays less taxes than they do?

[jaxx]

2. Excellent. Thanks for posting.

K&R

[Bluenorthwest]

3. Typical East Coast thinking

It is not 'the moderates' that are the problem, it is policy that is far too conservative. Policy, not people, not personalities. Making it all personal is a cheap tactic.

[brooklynite]

4. What have I made personal?

Policy is a matter of getting the voters/elected officials together to implement something, not simply having an academic discourse. Liberals are not a viable voting bloc ON THEIR OWN; neither are conservatives. Pushing away moderates will result in either 1) an eventual restored center-RIGHT colation, or a primary CENTRIST bloc with fringe groups on either side.

[msongs]

5. "build a center-LEFT coalition"? Dems in DC are NOT interested in an anything-left coalition nt

[AlinPA]

6. Thanks for posting. It's helpful to me.

[dmallind]

7. Wait a minute - I thought it was lefties who "stayed home to teach Obama a lesson" in 2010

These data would imply it was moderates who were less enthused.

[n2doc]

9. no no no. It's ALWAYS the Dirty fucking hippies' fault

No matter what those lying graphs show

:sarcasm:

[dmallind]

10. Well sure, but I'm more concerned with the lefties who BOAST about doing so and making a difference.

[OHdem10]

8. With a Democratic Party like ours, the REPUBLICANS DO NOT

NEED TO COMPROMISE. We roll over and give them everything
they demand.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. This is amazing!! Thanks so much! 2010 was about turnout, plain and simple.

Why people can't understand that beats me.

I really appreciate this analysis.

Bookmarked. Kicked. Recommended.