This put a BIG SMILE on my face...How it will all go down over the next few days...

[Change Happens]

This isn’t a prediction, but here is one highly plausible sequence of a series of events that could play out on the debt crisis:
Some time in the next 5 days, the President reaches an understanding with Speaker Boehner, Congressman Hoyer, and Senators Reid and McConnell for a deficit reduction/debt ceiling package that will be described as $4 trillion over a dozen years that will be heavily weighted towards spending cuts. There will be some language about a corporate tax reform measure (lower rates, fewer deductions) to be worked on in short order.

The media will initially be all excited about the deal, but will turn almost instantly towards declaring it has no chance to pass, seizing on every criticism of the package or declaration of opposition as sure-fire signs the proposal is dead. The outcry against the package (both before and after the details are known) will be intense on both the left and the right. Interest groups from all quarters will denounce the measure as unacceptable. National security conservatives, for example, will declare that the Pentagon cuts will eviscerate America’s ability to defend itself; liberal groups will deem the entitlement reductions unacceptable. Thumbs down will also come from Paul Krugman, Rush Limbaugh, and every Republican running for president in 2012. Boehner’s deputies – Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy – will do a gut check and then agree to get the behemoth through the House. Center-left and center-right newspaper columnists and ed boards will all say, in effect, Congress should hold its collective nose and vote “yes.” Senate passage will be complicated, but the bill will receive overwhelming bipartisan support, with almost all in favor emphasizing the historic opportunity to truly address our national balance sheet – and the necessity of avoiding a government default.

Those same arguments will also be used in the House, by both Boehner and Hoyer, whose aides will have to work in tandem to figure out how to win 218 votes. Democratic strategists (including those associated with the President) will quietly argue to liberals that this is the best deal they could get, and that a deal is vital. They will also argue (even more quietly) that such a deal will make the President’s re-election even more likely (by as much as 15%-20%), freeing him up to raise more money for them in 2012. Smart/honest Republicans will agree with that judgment, but will be powerless to make it in public. As the House prepares to vote, the media will declare again that there is virtually no chance of passage. Strange-bedfellow allies, including prominent elements of Big Business and Big Labor – plus, inevitably, Bill Clinton – will make the “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good” argument in public and in private. As the measure’s details become more known, there will be another round of fly-specking from webizens of the left and the right, declaring the package the worst thing ever considered by Congress in American history. Obama will give some blockbuster speech explaining why the bill must pass. The measure will appear dead both before and immediately after his speech. Then a handful of liberal and conservative House members will come off the fence and declare themselves in favor (some might even flip from declared opposition). There will be TV and radio ads against the measure, and various online petitions. The Simpson-Bowles crowd will belatedly get on the field and fund some limited advertising.

And, then, the bill will heart-stoppingly pass the House, with some secret backroom deals and lobbying that will be revealed (if ever) only long after the fact. Reps. Bachmann and Pelosi will vote against. And then it will fully dawn on Boehner and McConnell at the White House signing ceremony (likely as Obama is handing them their souvenir pens) that they were part of history, including part of the part where Obama was able to take off the table the single most damaging issue that could be used against him in 2012.


Read more: http://thepage.time.com/2011/07/08/the-road-maybe-ahead/#ixzz1RY38twg5

[KittyWampus]

1. I think there will be no deal. The debt will default. The economy will further suffer BUT

bringing up Social Security has gotten seniors and others attention. Those voters who usually don't pay that much attention. And now they know who will be to blame. It will be obvious.

[notadmblnd]

2. So, he's giving in to republicans so he can get re-elected and help get Dems re-elected?

It tells me that playing with peoples lives for their political gain is what it is about with these people. It's all they seem to care about and it doesn't matter to them who suffers for them.

[Myrina]

6. BINGO!

Sigh.

[Ozymanithrax]

3. Last week, Ryan's threat to Social Security and medicare was the issue...

most considered to give Democrats a chance to retake the House and hold the Senate.

Today, Many people on the left see Democrats as the biggest threat to Social Security.

What a difference a week makes.

[whosinpower]

4. So a crap sandwich is better because.......

Obama will be able to spend more time fundraising for 2012?

Is that what you are saying?

I read another scenario over at dailykos.

In essence - the republicans are going to withdraw their support in the house at the last possible moment - to force the democrats to vote to cut social security and medicare......why? Two reasons - they can remain true to their teabagger base in stating that they did not vote for the debt ceiling to increase - AND TO FORCE THE DEM'S TO SLASH SOCIAL SECURITY - IT IS A TWOFOR using the crisis of the debt ceiling....and Obama is helping them.

So they have a hammer for 2012. The democrats stole Grandma's social security!

[lame54]

5. that's no reason to smile