The President needs to do some simple political math

[MadHound]

A few weeks ago I was thinking, and writing here, that Obama's chances for winning in 2012 were very good, considering that the Republican party is divided against itself and the candidates were(and still are) seemingly going out of their way to shoot themselves in the foot, over and over again.

Meanwhile, the Obama money machine was fired up and running, and it was looking like an easy cruise for Obama, whose only real threat was the one that he posed to himself.

Well, with the current debt ceiling talks, the talk of cutting SS and Medicare/Medicaid, with the economy starting to take another dive, guess what. Obama's chances aren't looking so rosy. That threat to the Obama campaign that I mentioned, Obama himself, well it has materialized, quickly and with a vengeance.

Within the short span of thirty six hours from the time when the rumor of SS cuts being on the table first materialized, the left has, justifiably, gone into full out attack mode, enraged that a president who has already abused the left is now daring to touch that third rail.

Now today brought us the news that most of us already knew in our gut, that jobs were still not to be found and that our economy is still searching for bottom.

This double political whammy should give the President pause, and he needs to use that pause in order to think about his options. They are very simple, and the political math is very clear.

He can continue down the path he is currently on, bending over backwards to please Republicans, trying to look statesmanlike, above the fray, bipartisan, and following DLC/Third Way policies. He can continue to dismiss the left, abandon traditional Democratic positions and values.

And he will lose in 2012. He has already alienated large swathes of his constituency, and if he continues to forge ahead on the path he is on, he will alienate even more.

Or, he can do something that he promised to bring about in his campaign, namely change. He can start fighting for those traditional Democratic policies and values. He can actually do something he has yet to do, namely court the left, teachers, anti-war folks, and start giving out rewards to these groups instead of the back of his hand. If he does this, he will win.

The math is clear, the choice is his. Now, what will he do?

[RKP5637]

1. Well said!!! n/t

[gateley]

2. ALL he has to do (it's always so simple from our viewpoint) is

present his case to the American people (the vast majority of whom are vehemently opposed to Medicare/SS "adjustments") and say, PLEASE write your congressman and let him/her know that you want us to leave SS/Medicare/Medicaid alone. I'm trying to save it, they won't agree to help the budget unless I slash the benefits.

Something like that.

Problem-o solved.

[MadHound]

5. Good point,

But remember, the final buck stops with him. If he signs a bill that contains SS/Medicare cuts, he's toast. He needs to know that.

It would also help if he tapped into his inner LBJ just this once and come out fighting. These "outreaches", ie caves, he has towards the 'Pugs are simply unacceptable, and aren't necessary. Frankly, if he hadn't caved on the public option, or last December on the tax cuts for the rich, he and we wouldn't be in this position. The 'Pugs are like any other bully, they will continue to come at you until you stand up and thrash them, then they will never mess with you again. It is past time for Obama to stand up and thrash them.

[gateley]

15. He's in a hard place. If he doesn't sign a bill that somehow

makes it past the House and Senate (doubtful?), he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. But I agree, he'll be held responsible.

I've often said he should send Biden down to the floor to do an LBJ -- Biden's got history with lots of these people (although a lot of new ones are on the scene), but he DOES need to kick some butt no matter how he does it.

[WhiteTara]

3. You know, he has never had angry marches like *

He was given accolades and people forgave him for the Rick Warren business and turned out by the millions to tell he how great they wanted him to be. Maybe he needs to see the part where we tell him to stand with us; megaphones in hand, signs in the air and boots on the ground in a march, 100s of thousands. Not to tell him we hate him, but to tell him we are with him and need him to be with us. That we still hate the republicans and he can either join us or be pushed out by them.

[Liberal Veteran]

4. I'm not sure this board is a reflection of our entire party, but to answer the last question...

If he were to come out and say he would veto any legislation that involves cuts to SS or Medicare, the anti-Obama brigade would parse every blink, breath, and eye movement to say he's lying and really the evil spawn of the Koch Brothers and George Bush.

[MadHound]

7. Actually I'm not basing a lot of my opinion on this matter by what goes on here,

But rather on what I observe and hear in the outside world. And yes, Obama has indeed pissed off major parts of his constituency. Teachers, anti-war folks, leftists, the LGBT community, on and on.

As far as what you say about the "anti-Obama" brigade, that is nothing more than broadbrush slander and insulting, and should be beneath you. You know better.

[Liberal Veteran]

10. I respectfully disagree.

There is a faction within our own party that latches on to anything they can to bash Obama and even when he does something good, the response is somewhere between tepid and begrudging.

That's just how see things. Would you prefer I lie or just pretend it doesn't exist?

[EFerrari]

6. The Obama you've seen is the Obama you get.

He's not going to change course now.

[Harry Callahan]

8. Judging from the present state of the union, no one in Washington can do simple math.

[elocs]

9. If the economy is still in the crapper a year from now, with unemployment high,

and he continues to alienate more and more Democrats, if the Republicans can nominate a reasonably sane nominee, then Obama is going down.

What will he do? How about becoming a Democrat's Democrat, draw a line in the sand and say "no further, no more compromises". Republicans equate compromise with weakness and for them it's like blood in the water for sharks.

[Johnny Harpo]

11. Yes...Like No Jobs May Well Equal No Votes...n/t

[nevergiveup]

12. I have always thought his re-election

would be problematic mainly because of the depth of this recession/depression and the present biased state of the main street media in this country and finally because of the 40% of Independent voters who vote with the wind. By and large progressives will be with him in 2012 but if there is not significant improvement in the jobs numbers it won't make much difference. I say this as one of the very few on DU who do not think there is a chance in hell Barack Obama will allow a reduction in Social Security or Medicare benefits. It is not going to happen but regardless it will be the job numbers that carry him through 2012 or bury him.

[Edweird]

13. He will count on most Americans having the attention span of a goldfish

and this all being a distant faded memory.

[stuckinarut]

14. My guess is that he will capitulate...

There is no political will for any investment, and it is quickly becoming apparent to the rest of the world that the US no longer has the ability to grow, so long as it is stifled by its bloated, imperialist war budget. He is hamstrung by his wall st. investors and MIC henchmen that seem to keep finding "terrorists" in more and more countries.

This cut to the big 3 was signaled as early as December when Mr. Obama gave tax-cuts to the richest Americans, in a trade for extended UI benefits--many of these extensions are now ending.

I fear we are quickly approaching the dreaded point of no return.