What I think about the debt ceiling/SS fiasco.

[tcaudilllg]

I think Obama is bluffing. I think he's cleverly maneuvered Boehner into a position that he really doesn't want to be in: responsibility for cutting Social Security. Boehner knows he will be rejected by the Ohio 8th district itself come Nov 2012 if he has anything to do with such an event, and is trying to squirm his way out.

However, I see some dangerous trends on the SS front. First of all, let's be honest: Obama will never need Social Security for himself. Although it's difficult to predict the future if he does succeed in raising the retirement age, we can project him netting at least half a billion dollars in speakers fees after he leaves office. That would be comparable to the Clintons, who were able to waste a hundred million dollars on their own campaign. His kids and their grandkids will never want for anything. He may have his values but from the place he stands now he's... not particularly dependent on us the way we think we are on him. So he just might not understand what it means to raise the retirement age.

I know what it means. It means an increase, over time, in people dying on the job. If you know anything about medicine at all, you know that the aging process is very difficult to thwart. Difficult enough, that we cannot expect substantial life expectancy increases in our lifetimes. We're going to die in our sixties, seventies, early 80s just as our parents are/did. One of the arguments used for cutting Social Security is that it was a program designed for a population that could be expected to die in its 60s. There is scant evidence any such arguments were ever entertained by Congress during that time. Social Security was created under the same pretenses that it is defended now: the elderly were faced with hardship and dying. Dr. Townsend is the man credited with forcing the program's creation. Since its creation, Social Security has become a part of the American dream. You work while you are young and through middle age, and then you retire at 65 with full benefits. Some people retire earlier, particularly if they work physically demanding jobs. In the case of teachers, there are good reasons for retiring them after 25 years, and such benefits must be offered as to make the deal attractive (it's not like they get their masters degrees all expenses paid, after all).

When we speak of Americans, we speak mostly of the middle class. The upper middle and make up only a small percentage of the electorate. These persons will not listen to pleas that they work five years (or even two) more for their social security just so the top 10% can make more money. They aren't that stupid: they know the rich. They knew them in high school, and work with them at the office. They don't buy the propaganda of a media they see increasingly intentioned for their entertainment. I took the initiative yesterday to "spread the word" about the proposed cuts/increases in the retirement age. The reception was the same by all: a feeling of hardship and betrayal, the feeling of being kicked when you're down. Imagine 90% of the people feeling this way. Wait, what about the polls? Well, don't believe everything you hear: in my experience, what a conservative votes and professes to believe, and what they say in private, are not necessarily the same. Now are there conservatives who believe in the stupidity they vote for? Yes, but it's fear of these people that causes many conservatives to hide their true feelings. Nor can they easily escape them: most conservatives attend church services, and who else would you expect to find there but the most virulently extremist and dispassionate, come to pay their dues for a week filled with arrogance and villainy? And this is where the real politics of the Republican Party happens, as the bullies use their old tricks to corral the men and women who still fear, even after all these years, that they will be left out of the "in" crowd.

What could 90% of the people do? I shudder to think. Might they throw both Obama and the GOP out of office? Possibly. But what about if they thought about it harder? Then their cynicism might take hold and they would lose trust in the system completely. The stage would be set for their revenge against the rich, and that of course, would be the prelude for what some might expect to be a long struggle. I think, quite frankly, it could be ended rather quickly... Hitler's is the model for taking control of a country's politics in a short period of time. People don't think it could happen in America, but it could and will if Social Security is tampered with in any way which negatively affects the working and middle classes.

So let's get to the point of this discussion: there will be no cuts. Such can only be attempted through acts that, even if legal, would be illegitimate in the eyes of the people. But if Mr. Obama does sign a bill attempting to do such, then consider this my pact with all those who feel similar to me. I won't try to persuade those... they are impenetrable to reason and lacking in original empathy... Laird Wilcox describes them well. My pet theory is there is a surplus of these people created by medical advances which have saved people that evolution effectively ruled against. People who should not have been saved, and now our politics is sliding out of control as a result of the psychotic element achieving critical mass. I don't really see them as the big problem though. No, I see Democrats who would justify the rape of social security, for any reason, as the primary threat to the program. I understand well what kind of pet delusions they may have. Therefore consider me not a Democrat, but a defender of the social safety net. And if you are also a defender of the social safety net, for our sake and the sake of those who come after us, then consider me, come what may, a comrade in arms.

But do not reply saying "there's nothing we can do." I will not listen. Do not reply saying "you're out of line" -- I will pay no heed. Do not condemn me for mocking you... I do not care. There is nothing wrong with this talk... it is the truth, plain and simple. I would that the program was enshrined in the Constitution, not in law, that it will no longer be toyed with by the politically antagonistic. If you share my enthusiasm for a constitutionally protected Social Security, then reply you might.

[JDPriestly]

1. K&R.

Great post. I wish it could go to the greatest page and don't understand why people aren't swarming to it. Thanks.

Your theories are corroborated by history. Read about the run-up to the French Revolution. You may not get the truth from the first sources you read. My sources are written in French so they won't help you.

But wasting money on foreign wars, trying to pay for the wasted money by taxing the peasants and the middle class and then responding insensitively to protests. Sound familiar.

Last time a fabulously wealthy government did that, the heads of the leaders fell from the blade of the guillotine. Horrible sight that must have been.

And the French military was helpless or unwilling to protect those leaders. Their attempts to escape were unsuccessful. Truth be told, some very good, kindly, intelligent, well-meaning aristocrats were among those who were either exiled or murdered. It was an awful business that lead to more and more chaos.

The French Revolution was not the only such episode in history. The upper 1% of Americans and the Republicans really should open a few history books -- and not the ones that are published in Texas.

The current situation, especially the attacks on public schools, on Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare and the excessive military spending and involvement in foreign wars are likely predecessors of a disaster here.

I have children and lots of family. Sometimes I feel like Cassandra, and it makes me want to cry. I do not want a revolution like the French Revolution in my country. Please, would someone in D.C. please wake up.

[tcaudilllg]

2. It does seem like we need a third party

that is a big tent for positivists (who are traditionally conservatives) and negativists (who are traditionally Democrat). The bipartite political system forces preferences to become identities, and creates anger and hate where it need not be.

But yeah I feel increasingly that the Democrats don't represent me anymore. They whine and whine about what they can't do and they refuse to demonstrate the courage to reach out to people who hate politics. I've known a good many people who hate it and many have good reasons for it.

I think a lot of people thought the Tea Party was a movement in this direction, and that's how the Republicans snookered the independents into it.

This triangulation by Obama is just the last straw. Obama has no right to use my future as a bargaining chip. That's not the platform he ran on.

[eilen]

3. I've posited before

The times are ripe for a populist candidate with a mandate. If none appears, in 2 years we will have civil unrest.