Endgame, we are quickly approaching it folks

[nadinbrzezinski]

If in the end the debt ceiling is raised (aka the children decide to grow the fuck up in forty eight hours, and yes they are behaving like petulant kids...Cantor that means you)... historians will look at this like a marvelous thing that POTUS did.

If this does not... well he can reach for Herbert Hoover territory.

Yes, the day after will not be nice... to be frank beyond much higher interest rates, services cut, austerity program, well my crystal ball is based on... what has happend in other countries... on steroids.

I will not put beyond the realm of expectation a full economic crash. I know that for those who wish the Empire goes away will applaud this... as this is the functional end of it.

Trying to read the tea leaves I think Eric Cantor was read the riot act and his phone is ringing off the damn hook from the financial community. That is why he is quieter than a church mouse today. Readying the tea leaves crisis is starting to dawn on these people... and the polls don't help... aka the Republicans are getting blamed for it.

If you believe in prayer... this is one of those times. If you don't (like I don't) it couldn't hurt.

The reality is that default is not a government shut down. That is bad. This is far, FAR, worst.

[kanrok]

1. Oh, I thought you meant the NFL lockout.

Never mind.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. That is important from a labor rights POV, incidentally

:hi:

[DocMac]

51. I know this is serious...

but your post is funny!

[sendero]

3. I believe that the Republicans..

... are not QUITE as stupid as they pretend to be. They know that this has to happen. They are merely trying to soak Obama for whatever they can get because they have had such an easy time of soaking him before.

If Obama shows resolve the Repubs will fold, I guarantee it. This bullshit about not having the votes in the house is just that, BULLSHIT, they will tell the Tea Party FUCKS what to do and they will do it.

The debt ceiling will be raised one way or another - it's just a question of what Obama gives away.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. They are STARTING to fold

and more than a few tea baggers WILL NOT vote for it. So they will need the MINORITY to vote with the adults in the room.

[dissidentboomer]

4. Thoughtful. Thank you. I have no wish

for a crash, disaster, etc., but, should things not improve (i.e., get worse), then what? Try, try again within the narrowing political confines that don't allow some solutions to even be mentioned? My guess is more pain and I have NO idea how this public will react to it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. I will recommend a few books, because you are onto something

Start with Gary Nash's The Unknown American Revolution...

http://www.amazon.com/American-Revolution-Democracy-Struggle-America/dp/0670034207

Suffice it to say that no event of that nature, or a civil war, comes out of zeus's head athena like.

People are starting down the path of radicalization... and we started down the path of civil war at the very least in 1996

There are a few others, but start with Nash. Yes, it is about the American Revolution, suffice it to say it did not start Athena like in 1776, the seeds were planeted at least a generation before.

As to openly calling for one... I won't... they are not nice. But if or chiefly WHEN the shooting starts, I will not be surprised either.

[dissidentboomer]

23. THANK you....

:) Kind of you. I don't wish for it. I saw the people power uprising in the PI in the '80's and a subsequent coup attempt. It was mostly peaceful but it scared me. I have read numerous books on radical and revolutionary thought and movements - Russia in the 19th and early 20th centuries, rest of Europe, 20th century US. I love history and I think I have a feel for it. I've observed the hill, politicians, etc.

I know this sounds silly but I FEEL something coming here. Strange, I know but in the early oughts I told a few freinds and family that we were going to have a major crash within 10 years. I couldn't prove it and I wasn't a wall street or hill "insider". I sensed it based on what I knew about the economy, human nature, government and regulation.

This started in the '80's and I think the last opportunity to really turn it around was the late '80's to mid '90's. This post is gonna get laughed off the board... :rofl: OR deleted but I FEEL that we are now beyond traditional mixed market fixes. The window has closed. Too many events are converging - peak oil; tired, predatory capitalism; an uninformed population with limited access to knowledge; industry that mostly won't come back and leaders with no stake in bringing it home; growing racism and nationalism; and disrespect for knowledge, age, and experience. This is dark. I'm cassandra, I guess.... or just an aging, scared boomer but I give us 20 years, at most, before there is general disruption and a true break down. After that, I don't know.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. I won't here is another book recommendation

http://www.amazon.com/Chrysalis-Effect-Metamorphosis-Global-Culture/dp/1845193113/ref=pd_ybh_2?pf_rd_p=280800601&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_t=1501&pf_rd_i=ybh&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=132V9MAF5AJW868CHBN7

The Chrysalis Effect...

We are at the edge of something... fully agreed, and I am a historian by training.

That said, one of the things I did while a volunteer with the Mexican Red Cross, was debrief refugees from the Central American wars... What you are witnessing is the failure of civil society... which is what these people did and told me about. The parallels are there. But with Global Weather Change, Peak Oil, Population collapse... I will make one prediction that people will not like here. Like Roman Religion went bye bye at the end of the Empire, supplanted by Christianity, our bronze age faiths, all of them, are going to to away too when the dust settles. The US, and the current global order, will not survive either.

Oh and final recommendation... while hockey as hell... it places Toynbees theories on the cycles of history in an easily understandable way and within American context.

Read the Fourth Turning.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=The+Fourth+Turning&x=0&y=0

[DJ13]

6. Its still possible its all theater

The reason I say that is because the woosies of Wall St arent acting like they're worried.

If theres no debt ceiling increase the stock market would probably fall a few thousand points in the first two weeks, they would be screaming if they thought it might threaten them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Actually the street is... it's not been too stable

and the threat of downgrade of the credit rating IS coming from the street.

Phones, though, I am sure, are ringing off proverbial hook. And I don't mean the Secretary's, but the direct line.

[DJ13]

11. Its not been stable, but thats been due to Greece, Italy, & Benanke

I watch CNBC and Bloomberg every morning, and most of the traders are (at least publicly) ignoring the debt ceiling.

The action the last two days was almost all based on Bernanke's testifying on Capitol Hill and not promising them more free money (QE3) for the foreseeable future, leading to both days seeing a late day childish fit that led to declines.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Publicly, in private they are not happy campers

I know a couple...

And the boys from the local trading house go over to the same coffee shop I go to write for lunch.. let's just say the week's conversations have involved this...

I know that in private calls are being placed.

They will not act like hair on fire... because nobody wants a panic sale. But they are not happy and they are worried. (The US default is just one of many)

[DJ13]

17. But they are not happy and they are worried.

They should be.

Theres a good chance that no matter what happens, whether a deal is reached or not, the markets will decline after.

If the GOP holds firm and refuses to compromise, its bad for business.

If Obama wins the street will still say its bad for business.

So the result could be treated the same either way.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. If we default it could literally put half the street out of business

young traders don't get it. Older traders do. Those are the ones worried.

Hell, one who is as republican as they come... anecdotal mind you, was blaming both Boehner and Cantor today... and cursing the Tea Party.

I could not do much but chuckle by the way.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. Recommended for your excellent analysis...

:kick:

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Thanks I am tempted to change the channel to FOX

of all places...

[villager]

26. recc'd, too, but see that the dutiful, silent unreccing crew has been by...

n/t

[FreakinDJ]

12. Cantor wasn't that quiet today

Him and Boner had a presser taking kudos after the GOP run house sunk the High Speed Rail Funding Bill

"America has a spending problem blah blah blah"

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. But at the meeting he said not one word

Which means he was privately spanked

[FreakinDJ]

16. I listened to Boner only

a Cantor approached the mike it was just too much for me and I changed the channel

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. But according to nooz reports at the meeting this afternoon

he said not one word... that is not Eric... which means he was ahem... read the riot act.

[FreakinDJ]

22. Yes - I read that too

No doubt Boner schooled him - but more importantly the GOP in general wants to keep the negotiations out of the media.

The American Public - both Democrat and Republican alike WANTs the Tax LoopHoles Closed AND they do not want any Cuts to Social Security and Medicaid.

The Pres is walking a very fine line even suggesting they be included in the discussions. BUT any measures that insure the program's health over the long run would be welcomed. Doesn't take a Genius to figure out Pelosi was clearly signaling proposals to Raise the Cap and place the surplus in Treasury Bonds would insure the stability of America's Debt while keeping interest rates low and allowing the program to remain solvent past 2037

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Yep, we agree

Why I think we are reaching end game. The Rs chose the WRONG thing to make a stand on.

:hi:

[former9thward]

32. Were you at the meeting?

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. You tell me the AP and Joe Carney were lying?

Oh add to this Lawrence O'Donnell

[former9thward]

38. Were any of them at the meeting?

I didn't know that. Who else said "not one word"? Anybody? Or was Cantor the only person sitting in dead silence?

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. Carney probably was, his boss is the POTUS

they don't make these things up you know.

[former9thward]

40. I googled that quote. Nothing comes up except this post.

They showed a video of the room with the people around the table. Carney was not there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. You realize that the message from the Press Secretary is

carefully crafted, right?

You can believe whatever you want to believe.

There is nothing I can do about that.

But they will not tell the press that, if that was not the case...

[former9thward]

43. Where is the message with that quote?

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. Go listen to Carney

period.

have a good day.

Good night, Good life. bye, bye...

:banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead:

[former9thward]

50. Didn't have it. I knew it.

[thewiseguy]

15. Why would it be marvelous for the POTUS to raise the debt ceiling?

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. It needs to be done

a default will create a crisis people really cannot fathom. But if he does, I can see a book Obama: Master of the Senate... there is one on LBJ on a similar title...

[thewiseguy]

21. I understand the dire alternative but this would be the easy way out.

and I do not see that helping the POTUS or us in the long run. Lets raise the debt ceiling so we can borrow more!

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. It is a small business like thing

usually it is handled with one page at oh dark hundred. The Rs decided to create a false crisis.

As to borrow more, yes, they need to reform and stop spending... alas in the middle of an economic slow down, which we are still in, deficit spending is not a priority. In good times, see the clinton years, you can do that.

Also we need to raise taxes. We have gotten to the point that there is no way around that one.

[ozone_man]

33. Kicking the can down the road like Greece.

I see some logic in allowing the debt ceiling to increase, only if the budget is cut by an equal amount. Essentially, the Republican plan. The way I would handle that though is to make all of the cuts come from the defense budget. The problem is the MIC and no one has the guts to cut it. Not Obama, but it has to be done.

Otherwise, if you just let the debt ceiling keep rising like it has done in the Bush years and now the Obama years, it's only going to make the crash much worse when we go to the wall, and we will.

The debt driven Keynesians argue that we will grow out of this recession/depression, if we just fuel the economy with more debt, but that is erroneous, magical thinking. It's no different than living off your credit card. It's fine as long as the credit flows, but it all comes to an abrupt halt at some point. So, as a country, we are approaching that point, whether it is this year, next year, or the one after. It will only get worse if we extend the debt. We had the chance to let those zombie banks go to the wall and nationalize them, like Krugman suggested in 2008, but chose to bail them out, along with the toxic paper and underwater mortgages. It won't end until it is all revisited and dealt with properly.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. While trickle down works just dandy

talk about magical thinking...

[ozone_man]

53. And we need to raise taxes on the rich.

Cut defense spending and raise taxes on the rich. Actually, it is just restoring their previous tax rate.

But, instead of doing what's right, there is now talk of reducing the payroll (again), which is a way of eventually eliminating SS.

Our country is like a punch drunk fighter lunging at anything to preserve the status quo, growth economy. Whatever it takes to make that 3% growth, even bankruptcy.

[unkachuck]

27. if I was Prez....

....on August third I'd tell Geithner to crank up the presses....remember, the dollar is a reserve currency and only we can make them....

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. If we default that will be gone so fast it's not even funny

If we don't, there is talk already of REPLACING the USD as reserve, and Bretton Woods.

[xmas74]

29. I pray that all will be well.

What more can I do?

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Call Congress

[Hawkowl]

36. I believe Obama will declare it unconstitutional

I know he has said he won't do it, but he will really have no choice. The batshit crazies won't pass a debt ceiling increase and the alternative is economic chaos. Obama will have no choice but to instruct Treasury to keep paying and then file suit in the Supreme Court.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Today they did suggest an alternate solution

read 14th amendment... so yes, it was floated already.

[Hawkowl]

42. It is inevitable

Look what happened when Lehman Bros. threatened to take down the world: TARP and the Fed giving away TRILLIONS of dollars to virtually any rich bastard with their hand out.

Default is never going to happen. Congress not getting their shit together, priceless.

[flamingdem]

44. On the Ed show they discussed how Cantor got 70 rethugs to say they pledge

not to raise the debt ceiling... I'm wondering if the banksters hammering him, and I agree Wall St. is putting pressure left/right/center - were enough to undo the damage he's done...

sheesh! Did you read about Cantor's high school yearbook quote: "I want what I want when I want it"



:hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. Cantor reminds me of a spoiled brat

and :hi: back at you

[Marr]

46. There is zero chance the debt ceiling will not be raised.

Big business demands it, and they own these clowns. This is nothing but political cover for the last stage of a plan that began under Bush Jr.; bankrupt the nation, then use our economic problems as an excuse for cutting social programs.

It's all political cover, from the "Deficit Commission" to extending our budget shortfalls by extending Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, to constantly talking up right wing austerity fantasies and trickle-down economics. It's zero hour, alright-- but there is absolutely zero chance that Wall Street is going to feel any negative effects-- and they would with a default.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. There is that, but there is also a little factoid

they did not count on things like WI... people are waking up

[Lucian]

49. Who's Clove, Hamm, Nagg, and Nell?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endgame_%28play%29

[rucky]

52. Can you give some examples?

[nadinbrzezinski]

54. Yep, we are close

POTUS even gave them a deadline today.