The Political Economy of the Lesser DepressionEveryone in the forecasting business is scrambling to mark down both their estimates of second-quarter growth and their forecasts for later in the year.......
At this point, GS is predicting an unemployment rate of 8 3/4 percent at the end of 2012 — five years after the Great Recession began.
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So, terrible growth prospects; low inflation; oh, and low interest rates, with no sign of the bond vigilantes. Ordinary macroeconomic analysis tells you very clearly what we should be doing: fiscal expansion and monetary expansion by any means we can manage......
And what are we talking about in policy terms? Spending cuts and an end to monetary expansion.
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.........But the susceptibility of politicians — including, alas, the president — and pundits to these wrong ideas demands a deeper explanation.
Mike Konczal ratchets up my rentier argument, arguing that what we’re seeing is:
"
a wide refocusing of the mechanisms of our society towards the crucial
obsession of oligarchs: wealth and income defense."
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But the upshot is terrible: more and more, this really does look like the Lesser Depression, a prolonged era of disastrous economic performance. And it’s entirely gratuitous.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/16/the-political-economy-of-the-lesser-depression/