You know, there's a "common wisdom" that holds that the powerful really don't want a default .......

[Stinky The Clown]

..... as it would hurt them.

I am not an economist and I am not a wise person when it comes to making money on bad news, but someone always seems to do just that - make money on bad news. I have a feeling that the rich and powerful may actually want a default. I have a feeling they have figured out a way to make huge amounts of money on the US's default.

I think you and I are massively fucked.

[peace4ever]

1. i can see the few, at the very top, being able to gobble up a lot of businesses at fire-sale prices

if there is a default.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. I think it is easier than that. I think it involves our T-Bills or some other monetary instrument...

..... they've already gamed.

The financial equivalent of Locked and Loaded

[peace4ever]

6. yes, and that will hurt a lot of businesses that have invested in them

and some wouldn't be able to survive after taking that kind of hit, not to mention high interests rates, drop in the value of the dollar, not being able to get loans, etc. which will expose them to take over bids at fire-sale prices.

[Autumn]

2. I think you are right

this whole thing stinks.

[Taverner]

3. At this point we are playing chicken

How do you respond logically in an inherently illogical situation?

[DontTreadOnMe]

5. Anyone who is shorting T-Bills will profit on a default

yes, we are screwed

[rucky]

7. Eric Cantor would do alright.

[AndyTiedye]

8. Cantor Invested in an Ultrashort ETF that Shorts Treasuries

We can assume that his paymasters have invested simliarly (but add a few more zeroes at the end).

[riderinthestorm]

9. While that's a possibility, history demonstrates default is so destabilizing, even pros are leery

of the fall-out.

Honestly, I'm not sure anyone can predict with real accuracy what the result will be in our global, hyper-sensitive market where transactions are guided by computers in nanoseconds.

I have to believe that even global traders aren't this stupid. They KNOW from historical records that the massive instability can and will do real damage.

China's unprecedented investments in our currency will also play an enormous role.

I believe the PTB will put the hammer down and make sure the US doesn't default.



(then they work like mad to find another currency). Either way we're screwed.

[chalky]

10. The big secret of the century? Not everyone went broke during the Depression.

Just check John D. Rockerfeller's Wikipedia page. Snapped up real estate for a song.
He wasn't the only one who somehow managed to eke out a profit during that time.
You think the decendants of those that ran in Rockerfeller's circles didn't take a lesson from grandpa's book?

[starroute]

14. I'm reminded of a riddle I encountered as a kid

I ran into it when I was about 6 or 7, the age when kids get big on riddles, and it took me another 20 or 30 years to learn enough history to understand what it meant.

Q. Why was pharaoh's daughter a good businesswoman?
A. She drew a prophet (profit) from the rushes on the bank.

[pa28]

11. For what it's worth here's the Treasury Secretary:

“Each side has said definitively that default is not an option,” he said, “They’re not going to play around with this.”

The really rich have an array of investments and most of them would suffer badly in a default event. To think otherwise suggests that the rich are somehow conspiring to profit from a default and shifting all their capital accordingly. It's just not realistic and the bond market would be telling us now if there was even a grain of truth to this.

Normally I agree with you Stinky but not this time. They took a hostage they are not willing to kill and one wonders why we are even "negotiating" at all.

[applegrove]

12. They could put all their money into gold and it may double if there is a prolonged default. But I

don't think there will be a default at all so those people who invest in gold may loose money.

[PSPS]

13. There won't be a default. This is all just theater.

They will drag it out to the last moment and then obama will end up with another of his patented "compromises" that will infuriate his "base," and he will "blame" on the GOP. It's all in the script we've seen before with HCR and his tax cuts for the rich (including himself.)

At the end, it will still accomplish what both Obama and the GOP want -- the gutting of social programs that neither he nor his GOP brethren believe in.

[indurancevile]

15. They make money off everything because they know what's going to happen before everyone else.

Because they're the ones MAKING it happen.