http://www.businessinsider.com/laurie-goodman-11-million-mortgages-2011-7A major bear on the housing market, Amherst Securities' Laurie Goodman has predicted since 2009 another housing crash as banks are forced to liquidate tons of bad loans.
Up to 11 million mortgages are likely to default, according to Goodman. This is a frightening figure, seeing as only several million have been liquidated since the crisis began. When it happens the market will be flooded with supply.
Goodman reached 11 million by projecting default rates for non-performing loans, re-performing loans, and underwater loans. Here's a slide from a recent presentation (via The Atlantic):
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-the-housing-market-is-worse-than-you-think/242514/?source=patrick.net#thanksForSharingIframe--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a95Kqr8QTXsM&refer=homesnip
Goodman garnered more top rankings in annual polls of bond investors by Institutional Investor magazine than any other analyst, the statement said. Her team was third-ranked overall for structured-finance securities this year, taking top honors in three categories including ``non-agency'' mortgage bonds, or the ones lacking implied or explicit government guarantees at the heart of the credit crisis.
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http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/20-of-americans-may-lose-homes-report/3x3aafgn?cpkey=9e4506ab-2745-4699-8e51-b514c14048d2%7C%7C%7C%7C (video)
20% of Americans May Lose Homes: Report
Twenty percent of Americans may lose their homes before the housing crisis is over, according to Amherst Securities. Laurie Goodman, author of the report; Philip Swagel, a Georgetown professor; and CNBC's Diana Olick discuss.