Central and Western Gulf of Mexico DUers

[malaise]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.



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Rain for Texas?????

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. Good for you, malaise. Thanks for the heads up.

I have other things on my mind this am and would have not checked the tropical forecast today.

:hi:

Just found this on Jeff Master's blog:
the statistical models have generally been favoring a Brownsville landfall scenario, but the dynamical models have been inching north over the past day or so. The HWRF is in line with the ECMWF deterministic today, with landfall near Corpus Christi.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1857

( about halfway down page)

[malaise]

4. Now Tropical Storm Don

Rain is coming Texas folks!!

[Lisa0825]

2. We need the rain badly.

I just hope it doesn't cause major damage.

[starroute]

3. The hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to arrive there at 2 pm edt

Meanwhile, satellite imagery suggests the storm is getting better organized. Speculation by the commenters on Dr. Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground is that it will be declared Tropical Storm Don by midnight.

Current track projections have moved likely landfall north from Mexico to somewhere along the Texas coast -- though until the storm consolidates and has a clearly defined center of circulation, its path will remain hard to predict.