There is No Deus Ex Machina - The House GOP Matters

[alcibiades_mystery]

We've all been seeing a lot of so-called solutions to the debt ceiling "crisis." An invented and purely false crisis it surely is, but we also know that the false has real effects. The solutions, in any case, increasingly take on the air of the deus ex machina: the miraculous intervention that wasn't implicit in the plot that saves the hero (the American people, in this case) at the last minute. Here are a few of these suspense-laden magic acts that have circulated popularly:

1) The "14th Amendment" Solution: With this device, the House GOP is completely circumvented through an executive branch decision, based on a particular reading of the 14th Amendment. Very few people explain how this magic chariot flying out of the sky would actually work, but plenty of people like to yell "Invoke the 14th Amendment," as if it is a little magical incantation. Subspecies of this magic device are the signing statement and the executive order, both of which also circumvent the House GOP through executive fiat.

2) The "Money Guys": In this device, the moneyed interests - presumably a collection of business groups, banks, and financial companies - get on the horn with members of the recalcitrant House GOP at the eleventh hour, insisting that they raise the debt limit come what may. Since the House GOP is supposedly in thrall to these interests, they buckle, finally, trying to work out some face-saving operation.

We should notice what at least these two points have in common: the magical belief that the House GOP can be either avoided altogether, or forced through some external means to a favorable position. Neither of these is a bad belief given the absolute intransigence and dangerous stupidity of the House GOP. Neither, however, is likely to happen, as both are simply magical narrative devices rather than real probabilities.

No doubt the members are receiving some pressure from lobbyists (#2), but that will not be enough, since they are also receiving 3encouragement from others, and they largely believe (and may even be right) that they were elected to do just this. The first deus ex machina is just ridiculous: you can yell "Invoke" all day, but the reading of the Amendment is just silly, and the mechanisms for doing what needs to be done are currently so vague as to be non-functional. There is a third plot twist that may also be a bit of magical thinking:

3) "The will of the people" Solution: In this device, some massive influx of phone calls, emails, and letters forces the House GOP to some more favorable position. It's easy to see that this one has the same basic structure as the others: the current ideas and positions of the House GOP are bent to some degree. But it is not by some external power. It is by our own. That might be the only thing that moves it from the land of magic to the land of democratic agency.

Will the third plot device avert disaster, pull our heroes from the circular saw just before it splits them in half? It's hard to tell. But it's the only one that leaves us as more than spectators. At the end of the day, I suspect, the House GOP may be able to be moved to a slightly more favorable position, but the idea that they're going to drop their demands in the face of some miraculous external intervention is just childish. Whatever happens now, they'll have a say in it.

[piratefish08]

1. the "will of the people" has been abundantly clear for weeks

you see, they choose to not give a flying fuck.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Like I said, there's no reason to think it is any less magical thinking

[gratuitous]

3. Boehner can't get anything through the House without Democratic votes

Oddly enough, however, that has not resulted in any influence accruing to House Democrats, which is how absurd this situation has become.

As for a "silly" reading of the 14th Amendment, you could be 100% right. But I seem to recall some pretty "silly" - not to mention "criminal" - readings of the Constitution that occurred under the previous administration. Readings that were subsequently validated by the succeeding administration under some bullshit rubric that because a legal opinion had been proffered, no criminal investigation would be launched. I'm not in favor of any so-called 14th Amendment Solution for a variety of reasons, but "legally justifiable" has proved to be a far more elastic concept that I would have thought.

I'd like to see the House Democrats assert themselves and rally public opinion against Boehner with the notion that he can't do anything without support from the Democrats. As such, he needs to adjust his proposals to suit the sane members of his legislative body, rather than twisting himself into a pretzel trying to appease the insanity that is the Tea Baggers.

[Johonny]

7. If he did that he loses the speaker title

It's the tea party plan to force him to join with the dems to pass something through the house likely to pass the senate. Then to call him a RINO and force him out. So far he has tried everything he's got to not fall into the trap.

The whole debt ceiling debate is an internal fight between Republicans. I've always felt at the end of the day Boehner will pass a simply debt ceiling raise with the Dems support and his side of the Republicans because he has no other likely option. A smart Republican could use this issue to disgrace and remove these horrible and non-loyal Republicans from office, but who thinks Boehner and the RNC are filled with smart people right now? Not me. Now Rove and Cheney they'd have crushed these people.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. This is how I see your choices...

(1) The President invokers the 14th, announces that by their reading the debt ceiling is unconstitutional and continues to borrow to pay our debts. This works until Congress goes to the SCOTUS with a case and ask them to tell the President to cease and desist. This court has tended to side with the executive power, but from everything I've heard I think they will slap that down because it violates the powers of the House to raise funds. It would,at best, be a temporary fix. If it is permanent, it continues to move power to the executive branch and that is probably not in the long term interest of the citizens.

(2) I don't think that will work. Republicans created their tea party faction, gave it power, and they are now at the mercy of a far right fringe movement who will not hesitate to primary any GOP member that steps out of line. They may be manufactured by Republicans, but they have real power, including about 90 Congressmen who will not dare to ignore them. Under the tea-party populist demands, the corporate faction of the Republican party is helpless. They will ride this horse until it falls over.

(3) There is not enough time for 3 to work. Republicans are now receiving vast numbers of phone calls form their fringe, and they are scared shitless of them. Long term, a real populist revolt from the left could do something. but this is not a short term solution.

We either surrender to the demands of the House or encourage Obama to use the 14th while recognizing that it is likely a short term fix at best.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. They weren't my "choices"

:-)

[Ozymanithrax]

6. Poor word use, they seem to be the three ideas most discussed...

here.

I don't think any of them is a viable solution. I don't think there is a viable solution.

If congress doesn't pass some short term solution, then we will default.

[AndyTiedye]

8. k/r

[girl gone mad]

9. Yes there is.

Coin Seigniorage. 100% legal, 100% effective.

http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2011/07/coin-seigniorage-legal-alternative-and.html

[lumberjack_jeff]

10. There is another option

Better defensible legally, but with more political risk.

http://www.correntewire.com/beyond_the_debt_ceiling_the_30_trillion_plan_for_ending_borrowing_and_the_national_debt#more

Yes, it's "printing money". Is it inflationary? No, but even if it is, it's a distant 2nd place on the worry list.

[treestar]

11. Rec'd - one of the best posts on this issue

People may have elected Republicans, but they can tell them they didn't mean they wanted a debt default.

[KittyWampus]

12. Agreed. And on the basis of what you've described here it's nearly miraculous that Dems & Obama mana

managed ANY progress at all.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Agreed