Minority RULES: Scientists Discover TIPPING POINT For The Spread Of IDEAS

[Segami]

:smoke:



" Troy, N.Y. –Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.



"When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority," said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer."Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame." As an example, the ongoing events in Tunisia and Egypt appear to exhibit a similar process, according to Szymanski. "In those countries, dictators who were in power for decades were suddenly overthrown in just a few weeks." The findings were published in the July 22, 2011, early online edition of the journal Physical Review E in an article titled "Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities."



An important aspect of the finding is that the percent of committed opinion holders required to shift majority opinion does not change significantly regardless of the type of network in which the opinion holders are working. In other words, the percentage of committed opinion holders required to influence a society remains at approximately 10 percent, regardless of how or where that opinion starts and spreads in the society. To reach their conclusion, the scientists developed computer models of various types of social networks. One of the networks had each person connect to every other person in the network. The second model included certain individuals who were connected to a large number of people, making them opinion hubs or leaders. The final model gave every person in the model roughly the same number of connections. The initial state of each of the models was a sea of traditional-view holders. Each of these individuals held a view, but were also, importantly, open minded to other views.



Once the networks were built, the scientists then "sprinkled" in some true believers throughout each of the networks. These people were completely set in their views and unflappable in modifying those beliefs. As those true believers began to converse with those who held the traditional belief system, the tides gradually and then very abruptly began to shift. "In general, people do not like to have an unpopular opinion and are always seeking to try locally to come to consensus. We set up this dynamic in each of our models," said SCNARC Research Associate and corresponding paper author Sameet Sreenivasan. To accomplish this, each of the individuals in the models "talked" to each other about their opinion. If the listener held the same opinions as the speaker, it reinforced the listener's belief. If the opinion was different, the listener considered it and moved on to talk to another person. If that person also held this new belief, the listener then adopted that belief.




cont'


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-07/rpi-mrs072511.php



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[woodsprite]

1. So we're screwed with 12% of the House being Tea Party zombies..n/t

[Segami]

3. I believe their study focused on " the tipping point of spreading IDEAS " only.

From the article, they are looking to study ' a model where society is polarized '.


"...The researchers are now looking for partners within the social sciences and other fields to compare their computational models to historical examples. They are also looking to study how the percentage might change when input into a model where the society is polarized. Instead of simply holding one traditional view, the society would instead hold two opposing viewpoints. An example of this polarization would be Democrat versus Republican...."



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[RC]

4. Yep. We might as well give up and go with the flow.

The flow being the swirl around the drain.

[ZombieHorde]

2. I wonder what type of opinions the researchers were spreading.

Both liberals and conservatives have had more than 10% of the population for multiple generations now.

[bemildred]

5. Unless some different 10% disagrees. Then you get war. nt

[RickFromMN]

6. Do they have a way to simulate the affect of money on the spread of ideas?

Money let's one buy a bigger megaphone to spread an idea faster over a larger area.
Money lets one buy people to spread one's propaganda.

[Lyric]

7. So what happens when two different ten-percent segments of society hold opposing beliefs?

Let's say that there are 10% of people who have an unshakeable belief in marriage equality, and 10% who have an unshakeable belief that marriage should be restricted to heteros only. Other issues work just as well--abortion, social justice, war, etc.

What happens then? Is civil war inevitable at that point?

[Segami]

8. See #3

[BR_Parkway]

9. So since 84% of us want to raise taxes on the rich, that's what will happen?

I'm thinking that their research is about to be shattered by conflicting evidence

[backscatter712]

10. Interesting. This is a useful study for us atheists.

Get enough atheists to adopt the New Atheist ethos, and actively speak out against religious woo-woo, and eventually, we could hit the tipping point.

[Arugula Latte]

12. The rise of the Internet is crucial.

More people feel comfortable talking about atheism/agnosticism. More and more people are aware that there are millions of us not buying nor drinking the religious Kool Aid.

[MilesColtrane]

11. How can they test the accuracy of their models?

It's not like they can employ 75 million people to log onto Facebook and spread a meme.

Sounds like dubious science to me, but hey, it's only our money. The Pentagon is rolling in it these days.