So if the house cannot get votes for a republican bill, why would the house accept anything from the

[still_one]

Senate coming from Reid?

Since this whole thing started because the republicans wanted to attach a deficit cutting part to raising the debt limit, why would the tea baggers now accept just a raising a debt limit by itself?

They won't compromise, and as far as I can see Obama better reconsider his use of the 14th amendment

[NightWatcher]

1. Ding! The House won't/can't pass anything

O's gotta go 14th or else we default

[liberalmuse]

6. My best guess/hope...

is that President Obama has all the best people on this and will pull something out at the very last minute. I can't see him allowing the US to default, or bowing to Tea Party demands. I know many here who have much less faith in President Obama think otherwise. Fair enough. It's getting more and more obvious that Congress isn't going to do jack, but he still has to let them play a little longer. That's all they did today - play and eat pizza. I've posted many angry rants here on DU, but at this point, I'm so beyond angry that I actually feel calm.

[EarlG]

2. Because House Democrats will vote for the Reid bill

House Democrats won't vote for the Boehner bill which is why Boehner needs all the Republicans to vote for it, including the teabaggers who are currently refusing.

If the Reid bill makes it to the House, House Democrats will vote for it meaning that just need a few dozen Republicans would need to cross over to pass it, and they can bypass the teabaggers altogether.

The question would be whether they can get a few dozen Republicans to cross over, but presumably there are still some Republicans in the House who aren't actually that keen on destroying America. (Although don't quote me on that.)

[tridim]

4. The crossovers will win relection, the rest will lose.

I bet more than 12 House Republicans know that.

[still_one]

5. That is actually my question are their any republicans who will vote for the Reid bill in the house?

[EarlG]

7. alcibiades_mystery has a good post on this

here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1601375

[still_one]

8. Thanks /nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. If I worked in the WH tonight

I'd be pouring over district maps, recent earmarks, possible challengers, etc. I think you can lean on 30.

[Recursion]

19. Boehner can probably get a majority of his caucus

But not enough to pass the bill. If he can get something Pelosi can sign on to, he can probably pass something.

[kelly1mm]

13. Two problems I see in your analysis - 1) getting 60 votes in the Senate

and 2) needing about a week to get a discharge petition to get a vote in the House over the Speaker's objection will put us to the 5th of August. Any thoughts?

[Faryn Balyncd]

3. There are only 3 choices:

1. a few patriotic Republicans join with the Democrats to pass a clean bill.

2. 14th amendment

3. Default, bring home the troops, shut down the government.

[kenny blankenship]

9. It could be that they have the votes but won't pass anything until LATE Monday night

and then they'll disappear from the Capitol.

Thus presenting the Senate and President with a take-it-or-leave it deal. Take it, or face default with the rising Sun.

[still_one]

11. Maybe, but if the Senate is as good as their word they said the House bill was DOA /nt

[applegrove]

12. The teaparty people will not vote for a Reid deal but some of the old time Republicans

may not want to see economic mayhem so they could vote with the House Democrats... and there are alot more of them than there are tea partiers so only some of them will have to vote for Reid's plan for it to pass the House.

[Kaleva]

14. Here's what my teaparty rep. said just today on Facebook:

"If given the chance to cut $2.7 trillion with Harry Reid leading the Senate and Barak Obama in the White House, count me in."

Three days ago, he had said this:

"I will not support any increase in the federal debt limit unless it is paired with significant spending reductions, enforceable caps in the amount the government can spend going forward, and the addition of a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution."

That 2.7 trillion is the Reid Plan and how I read it, he's now willing to vote for it if it were to come up in the House. My guess is what happened in three days was that he got alot of calls from citizens in his district letting him know that standing firm on the "Cut, Cap, and Balance Pledge" was unacceptable.

[applegrove]

16. It seems tonight that the tea partiers are sticking to their guns in great numbers.

[newmexicodem]

15. It seems deadlocked either way

If Speaker Boehoner's plan could not get Democratic votes......why would any one from the GOP agree to Reid's plan. It seems deadlock either way. Both sides are afraid of getting primaried. Teap Party folks are threatening to primary anyone who is even half way rational.

The Senate refuses to support Boehoner's plan and the House refuses to support Reid's plan. Both are screwed unless they merge the two bills somehow in the middle.

It seems that in order for Reid's plan to succeed he needs 100% support from the House Dems and he needs 25 cross-over Republicans. House Dems would also need Speaker Boehoner's consent to put the bill on the calendar. Easier said than done for someone who has pie on his face. Not to mention their would need 60 votes in the Senate to avoid fillerbusters.

The 3rd option is Obama pursuing the 14th Amendement and dealing with the impeachment and Supreme Court injunction dilemma

The 4th option is to let the US default have the stock market crack......have commodity lines.....hold SS checks and the panic that ensues for the Seniors and the panic for rich corporates with empty portfolios......and then rational minds return in 2 weeks to compromise on a bill that includes revenues(eliminating corporate tax breaks such as deductions for mortgage interest/business losses/etc.... and welfare child tax credits/earned income credits) AND fair spending cuts(entitlements AND foreign defense spending). Take a little from BOTH sides. The upper class and lower class will need to sacrifice IMHO for true compromise.

[pampango]

17. Welcome newmexicodem. I heard on PBS that the government takes in $178 B and pays $308 B monthly.

So even without the capacity to borrow money they could pay $178 billion in bills every month, so it's not like they would not be able to spend a dime.

But, if Obama doesn't invoke the 14th Amendment, the tricky part will be prioritizing who gets paid from the $178 billion and who gets stiffed. (I'm probably not remembering the figures precisely, but they were in that neighborhood, IIRC.)

[Recursion]

18. Because Pelosi, unlike Boehner, can deliver her caucus

However, Boehner already had to come to Pelosi for the tax cut/unemployment deal; having to do so again would probably end his tenure as speaker.