House Dems in the Catbird Seat?

[alcibiades_mystery]

The House Dems did something very strong today: they acted as a block, and stymied Boehner's bill. Yes, yes, the Tea Party did it, sure. But the House Dems forced the Tea Party to do it, and thereby exposed the major rift in the republican ranks while at the same time grievously weakening the opposing Speaker. But what about the math?

We can assume, I think, that Boehner had the majority of Republicans on board. If he didn't, he would have called off the vote much earlier in order to avoid this massive public humiliation. I think he even probably came close. But let's still suppose that some number equaling the Tea Party's 40 freshman STRONG OPPOSE bloc, say 80 insurgents in total. Of the House GOP's 242 members, Boehner could only get 162 to vote for his bill. He needed 216. So, even in that worst case scenario, you have this math:

242 GOP members
-40 Tea Party Freshman
-40 Fellow Travelers
= 162 Voting with the Speaker

Why is this useful to know? The Dems have 192 members, but let's minus out the various sick and/or scandal plagued and call it an even 190. That means they need 26 votes to get to 216, which is the majority in the underattended House.

It turns out that Boehner had the much tougher task here: he had to prevent rebellion at a level of almost 90%. That is, he had to bring 216 on board out of 242.

The House Dems have a much easier task, numerically speaking. They only have to bring 26 GOP members on board. Now, let's assume that the only pool they have to pull from is that 162 who would vote for the Boehner bill, the other 80 being way too far gone. They only have to pull about 16% of the existing pool of members, since they're already bringing 190 votes to the table (presumably for Reid's plan OR a clean bill).

So, what's the strategy?

1) Identify GOP members in blue states and blue border districts
2) Start with the love: we'll give your 2012 opponent the bare minimum of support, and won't bring any superstars to the district
3) Move to more love: Hell, we'll be lukewarm to a 2012 challenge period.
4) Transition to a more aggressive posture: Obama, or Hillary, or Biden, or Bruce fuckin' Springsteen will appear in your district for each of the last six weeks of the 2012 election, standing on a podium with the strongest and most well-financed challenger we can find. We'll make ads about your vote here and flood the district with them all fall.
5) Where necessary, drop hints that cuts will immediately come out of whatever pork earmark the Congressperson has managed to put into place.

You can pull 26 of these assholes. Boehner's problem was that he needed to pull 216 of them.

[eleny]

1. Well, with the Speaker going on a bender it seems like the Dems own the moment

[johnd83]

2. That is the best option

Pass something that is reasonable in the Senate and then just get 26 of the GOP to vote with the dems. I think we will see a third party in the next election because of this insanity, probably the moderate wing of the GOP will peel off. It already happened in Alaska.

[flamingdem]

3. nancy pelosi vs. the trolls (or hobbits take your pick)

[animato]

4. Nancy did her job

Not one defection to the dark side.

[freshwest]

6. Yup

[animato]

10. She wants her old job back

Betcha she's in a good mood tomorrow.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Oh, I think she will be

:-)

[BeyondGeography]

5. Probably too late for that

But it would be glorious.

[BeFree]

7. Very well said A-M

So why has Pelosi waited so long?

It's almost as if they wanted to make it as much theater as possible.
Recall that posts here several years ago proffered the idea that dems wanted repubs to win just so they could show the world how awful the repubs handled power. If so, it is working.

[kelly1mm]

8. Two problems I see in your analysis - 1) getting 60 votes in the Senate

and 2) needing about a week to get a discharge petition to get a vote in the House over the Speaker's objection will put us to the 5th of August. Any thoughts?

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. With Boehner's bill either in shambles or rejected in the Senate

there's no way the GOP Senate can filibuster the Reid bill. They may vote against it, but they will allow it to come to a vote.

As for getting either a Reid bill or clean bill brought up for a vote in the House, I think Boehner would even allow it, no discharge petition necessary. He has all kinds of reasons to allow the bill to go to a vote, including sticking it to the folks that just humiliated him. He also knows that the limit MUST be raised: he doesn't have the balls to be the person standing between a passed Senate bill and a VOTE in the House - that would put the whole of the ensuing crisis on his shoulders and his shoulders alone. Guy couldn't stand up to it, period, especially since he's not one of the ideological crazies.