Obama strategy backfiring--losing ground among Independents (Pew Poll)

[WI_DEM]

The Obama strategy is, apparently, to take democratic voters for granted and move to the right to attract Independents, who they say will decide the election. The Pew Poll is showing that, so far, the strategy is not working:

The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off.Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.

This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today.

http://people-press.org/2011/07/28/obama-loses-ground-in-2012-reelection-bid/

[jaxx]

1. Don't worry, he'll come back stronger than ever.

[WI_DEM]

6. I hope so...

[Andy823]

17. I agree

Another thing is last year a whole lot of the tea party crowd were "claiming" to be "independents", so just because some poll says "independent" numbers are dropping it doesn't mean much. It's also a long, long way till the elections, things change all the time and his numbers will come back!

[villager]

45. "You may say that I ain't free, but it don't worry me..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BYyDusJYJo

[ProSense]

2. "40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012"

Is that a generic Republican?

[WI_DEM]

4. yes, generic.

[Chan790]

77. Well lucky for us...

The GOP seems committed to choosing a non-generic Republican who will cause much teeth-gnashing among the public...or Mitt Romney who has no charisma or personality.

We learned that lesson once...the guy with no personal charisma can't win until he loses, develops a meaningful interest in something important, grows a kick-ass beard, turns his back on his corporatist pals...and his whiny white-bread soulless wife* leaves him. Oh, Al Gore...if you were this awesome before election day 2000, it never would have been close enough to steal.

*-Tipper Gore, staunch advocate of censorship and un-ironic stater of "Think of the children!". I bought every violent video game and 2Live Crew album I could as a child, to spite you.

[FormerDittoHead]

3. Most "independents" don't follow politics that closely.

IMO, if they followed politics at all, they wouldn't be independents.

[IndianaJoe]

29. Agreed. They are usually idiots. n/t

[boston bean]

39. those useful idiots hear cut SS and Medicare and that's all they need to know.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. An idiot strategy to begin with.

People were pissed at the economy. They saw two houses led by democrats doing nothing about the jobs situation. They say a president doing even less. No wonder the tea baggers won.

The Public has moved left. Washington has moved right. And he wonders why he is losing his support?

[ProSense]

10. "The Public has moved left." The poll

says: "40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012."

That's not moving left.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

15. that also shows 60% wanting a democrat in office

Recall the numbers when W "won" the first time?

[former9thward]

19. It didn't say that at all.

If you bothered to read the OP it said that 41% wanted Obama re-elected.

[Raksha]

42. Newsflash - Obama isn't the only Democrat in town, even if he is the incombant.

Maybe 60% want a real Democrat, not a corporate Wall Street Democrat.

[former9thward]

60. Newsflash - The OP is about a certain poll.

No where at the link was there any data suggesting 60% of the people want anything. If you want to make up facts go run your own poll.

[sabrina 1]

57. 60% do not want a Republican. I would call that 'moving left'.

And a majority of Americans want Social Programs protected, they want Medicare for all etc. So yes, this country is far more left than right. The problem is we have Democrats buying the propaganda of the far right and acting accordingly. Now we are beginning to see the results of that stupidity.

[RKP5637]

30. IMO they see A=B so they think WTF. If people want a republican they'll

vote for one, and sadly that well might happen in 2012. What they see IMO is just nibbling around the edges on a major jobs problem.

I read this someplace once and I think it's valid, people vote by how well their finances are, how well the economy is, how well employed they are. That said, the stock market can double, but that doesn't equate to jobs, so all the big buck guys feel great, but the masses are still unemployed, and they will pick a different party.

Also, we've seen too big to fail, all the money flowing to wall street, all the money flowing to banksters, all the big buck bonuses, all the incredible CEO pay, and on and on ... so, it's going to be pretty hard IMO to sell the masses on how great everything is.

Obama should have learned from FDR/LBJ/JFK, but he's following IMO a far different playbook. I don't get it, I just don't.

There should be a really major, really major jobs effort going on like FDR did, but many see what's going on as business as usual and the wealth gap growing and growing.

And, the republicans are clueless about everything. I see some pretty rough years ahead.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

33. well put, accurate, and sad to say,

you capture my feelings about this presidency perfectly.

WTF is not just for twitter anymore.

[Bandit]

7. Polls continue to show, Americans dumber than a bag of rocks

:shrug:

[Aerows]

8. Not a surprise

He's pissing off the base, and Independents left and right because ... wait for it ... a lot of people aren't Independent. They just refuse a label and want a party that stands up for the middle class. Since neither are doing that, they are rightfully pissed. I have a household of three taxpayers. ALL of us are pissed, at Washington as a whole. We elected Obama to be different, and he's just another corporate asshole whore wanting to handover our pensions, our retirement, and our health care to corporations.

He's fooling no one, and neither is Congress. All 535 of those assholes are just as bad. The play pretend games need to stop, but we have no leader willing to say - wait a minute, we are hurting the American people so badly, they are about to get fed up and rebel.

[jaxx]

20. I'm the base and I'm not pissed off.

I think this thing of 'base' is being used as a weapon against the President.
Along with calling him "another corporate asshole whore".
You might want to reword that.

[Aerows]

22. I'm the base

and I'm pissed. I've never voted Republican in my life, and didn't stray to third party, either.

YOU might want to reword your admonishment, because being starry-eyed and not clear-headed isn't wisdom or "acting like an adult".

[jaxx]

24. Getting personal now?

Can't come up with anything but calling names?
I'm a Democrat.
I don't care if you're pissed.

[Aerows]

26. I'm a Democrat

and I don't care if you are NOT pissed, but I am. If you took something personal from my post, that's all on you.

[jaxx]

28. LOL

:nopity:

[Aerows]

32. Same to you

when, we, both on the same side as Democrats, play that song when they lose the election.

You think turn out is going to be extraordinary when you keep pissing people off?

You think people are going to phone bank and contribute?

Play your own violin, honey, because making the base angry is a losing strategy that some Democrats seem to have mastered willingly .

[jaxx]

62. Who the hell do you think you are?

This is the Democratic Underground. The place that supports Democrats.
You are way off base thinking like that.

[Aerows]

79. I'm a Democrat

A woman, a lesbian, and I voted for Obama in 2008. That's not who I *think* I am, that's who I *am*. And you are way off base to accuse me of anything less than that.

I am pissed. I am "the base". And if you don't get that, or want to twist that into some personal insult, that's on you, not me.

[sabrina 1]

58. I'm with you!

[mitchtv]

53. I am a base member for many years

and boy am I pissed, and Obama has the reputation as one who will not fight for his base, he's losing it.

[Solomon]

9. Right. Republicans are in disarray but his strategy isn't working.

Thanks. :thumbsup:

[TheKentuckian]

78. They have been in disarray since well before he was elected.

Their shit is remains in disarray but they are in a far superior position than they were even in 2004 when they had to cheat and tell unworldly level lies on decent folks like Cleland and Kerry to scrape by in a falling over dead at the finish line type finish because his strategy isn't working.

They continue to implode all on their own, "bipartisanship" just joins us in their death spiral and is making it impossible for them to actually lose or for us to win by assimilating their horribly failed policies and worldview. We cannot win on their terms, to do so makes the conversation terms of surrender even if it wins elections because elections are a means not an end and the means is squandered when used to prop up and lend credibility to a dangerous opposition whose openly stated prime directive is your destruction and who's depth and length of treachery and criminality is epic in scope.

It is insanity to willfully share power and adopt the policies of the unreformed and unremorseful who have only hardened their absurd positions in the face of grand depths of failure. What does it benefit to leave their worst operators and most depraved brains to continue their foul work with not so much as open admonishment?

Not a damn thing has worked as a result of these probably scammy tactics and foolish at best strategy. Working to reduce our civil liberties, increase poverty, deconstruct public education, to further radicalize the opposition, to increase apathy and anger, to make the people less secure and less free, to increase the wealth disparity, to further corporate power, to reduce corporate accountability, to enhance the power of the state and the executive, and mostly to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and exchanging chains to a wicked insurance cartel for both our treasury and people for worst than nothing by putting the long term stability of our nation's economy and our safety nets for those that will only need them more firmly into the crosshairs, pretty much appearing to make cuts in the net a priority.

The fool has made Reaganisim the unargued state doctrine and has moved the debate entirely into that frame.
So, if you see winning in this steaming pile of shit you must want something pretty fucking vile or really silly or both.
What the fuck is the endgame here?

[girl gone mad]

11. It's also threatening to derail the economy.

Frankly, the country can't take much more from these DLC "centrist" clowns.

[Skink]

12. More republicans than ever now say they are independants.

and for once I agree with them. If they are centrists they can not belong to this party.

[Kahuna]

13. These polls at this time mean less than nothing. Same thing happened

after the healthcare debate.

[MannyGoldstein]

14. Obama's strategy worked fine in 2010, it'll work even better in 2012

Oh, wait...

[ChairmanAgnostic]

16. LOL, talk about catching the moment perfectly

[JoePhilly]

31. You can hope.

[MannyGoldstein]

34. I hope for good things for the 99% nt

[JoePhilly]

36. Yea ... Obama hates them ... nt

[SidDithers]

46. If only McCain had won in 2008...

remember when you said you would have preferred that?

Keep working on 2012.

Sid

[bluestate10]

71. If Mac has won. McCain would have been dead within a year from the stress

of the job. Bin laden would be alive and hale in Pakistan, probably the PM there. President Palin, who took over after Mac croaked, would have quit a year or more back, leaving an already destroyed country in the hands of another, generic, incompetent republican. We would have been living in tent cities, standing in soup lines and hopping freight trains to look for work since February 2009.

[robcon]

18. There's no generic Republican running... they're all unappealing to independents.

The president will be re-elected easily when he runs against a specific, not a generic, Republican.

[blm]

21. People misread Independents. They're attracted to STRENGTH and appearance of COMPETENCE.

Even as a supporter of Obama's, I can see he certainly gives the APPEARANCE of someone too willing to bend to pressure from the right. THat is not an admirable quality.

I loathe Clinton's triangulating governance that Obama is emulating, but, Clinton was able to ACT like he was the one leading even when he was caving to the right. It sucks, but, that is what Independents admire.

[fredamae]

23. Seriously, are polls reliable beyond the Honesty of the

questions/wording asked?
The Pres Knew this would happen, he accepts it in his efforts to save us.
Me and my friends are still with him. That feedback is more accurate than these polls, imho. They didn't get polled either.

I wish I would get polled once in awhile, but I am not in the group that will give them the responses they seek. Pro R's and Anti-Obama/Dems

[loyalsister]

80. That's so true

The people who label themselves and participate are simply denying that they have strong opinions. People who are willing to vote usually have an agenda.

[treestar]

25. To what? Republicans?

That's what it looks like.

[florida08]

27. well it's like this

We're in deep doo. Everyone knows it. I don't know how the economy is going to come back with 20 million out of work..consumer spending continues to decline overall and huge tax cuts still going out the door. This isn't about popularity it's about peoples lives. It's about oil subsidies and corps not paying their fair share of taxes. It's about people feeling they're being served up as hors d'oeuvres for the wealthiest. No jobs bill. Lost homes. No innovation or building. Inflation. Medical costs. Defunding states of federal money raising property taxes, utilities and sales taxes. Lost pensions and 401K's that haven't gotten a bailout. Reduced wages and now cuts to SS and health programs.

How in the world does that give the incumbent an edge? The buck stops with him. Yes we can blame the republicans, it is still Bush's economy but there's been no accountability from this administration for what was done to us and the world with the CDS through the scam of subprime loans. America has a long fuse but a short memory. When they're pissed they will react in panic as they see no other choice. What they see is we have gone from 'yes we can' to 'this is the best we could get'. This will not be acceptable.

However as long as the Teasters hold the republicans hostage Obama is probably safe for the next term. But a democrat after that?
If things don't get better we will have another George Bush 2 term fiasco of putting the screws to us again. We need to think in the long run. Presidents come and go but some stability is much needed for our country.

[RKP5637]

43. Well said IMO. If one took the label of democrat off Obama, just looked

at perceived performance and not political parties, I bet a number of people would say we need different strategies for unemployment. You're so correct about Americans having a short term memory.

I think there is a good chance of another George Bush 2 term fiasco if Obama does not get in. It's damn clear what the republicans' priorities are for this country. IMO Obama needs to radically shift his strategies to address unemployment in this country ... to get the FDR playbooks out and read them, get some innovative ideas.

[florida08]

55. +10000

couldn't agree with you more. Perceived Performance..exactly. Obama definitely needs to move to the left and now would be a good time.

[enlightenment]

35. Part of the problem is the presumption that all

independent (lumping 'independent', which is an actual political party, with 'unaffiliated', which is not) voters lean right. The number skews right (at the moment), but not by a huge percentage. By pandering to the small majority of independents who lean to the right, the administration ignores the large minority of independents who lean to the left.

The recent Pew Research poll makes the situation worse by persisting in lumping independents - suggesting that if they lean to the left or right they must really be some form of Democrat or Republican. The need to define everyone by a political party is odd to someone who doesn't see the value of defining themselves by a party; not everyone needs a cozy box to live within.

http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/typology-group-profiles/

[Aerows]

38. Exactly

It's also a huge mistake that many Obama supporters make. They assume that swing voters are this homogenized mix of people, when they are most certainly not. I know a few swing voters. I'm displeased with Obama, and I voice my displeasure because he's too far to the right. Guess what? Swing voters pick up on that and start disliking him, too. I don't have to work to get the man elected just because he claims to be a Democrat and I AM a Democrat.

If he votes like a Republican, acts like a Republican and supports right wing ideology like a Republican, as far as I'm concerned, he's a Republican. I don't need to hear what he says, I just need to see what he does.

I'm one of millions of people that supported and voted for him, campaigned for him and donated to him that now feels that way.

If I don't matter, that's just great! I'm glad to be in the "I don't matter club" that I have been in since candidate Obama became President Obama. I won't matter all the way to the polls, when suddenly, I WILL matter, and it will be my fault because he lost. Never be his fault, though. Just me, and the other people that don't matter.

[woo me with science]

72. "...not everyone needs a cozy box to live within."

That's good, because pretty soon many people will not even be able to afford boxes.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

37. Thank gawd "Generic Republican" isn't in the race.

Or we'd be screwed. As it is with the idiots who either are, or are considering being, in the race, I'm less worried.

Then there's the current antics by the Republicans, which won't set well with Independents if we do see a default.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

41. Rick Bachmann-Christie

You go that southern tug, the narcissistic wombat-eyed bible beater from the north, and the east coast hindenburg neocon all factored in.

[Blasphemer]

40. Gallup has similar numbers but neither poll answers why

It could be just general souring and dejectedness of the electorate because of the debt crisis with the POTUS taking a hit along with all of Congress. Without specifics, it's hard to say what exactly those who now disapprove of him are most upset over. Aside from that, the tea party still has a stranglehold on the GOP, which is not going to help their cause in the 2012 presidential election. I do think we have reached a turning point and the outcome of this debt ceiling debate will significantly impact the election next year.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

44. It's been said many times many ways:

"generic republican" isn't running in next year's election. There will be a Democratic candidate named Barack Obama and an as-yet-undetermined Republican candidate running for POTUS next year. This kind of poll does NOT assure just *any* Republican candidate of victory and should not be read as such IMHO.

[cableman24]

47. different polls say different things.

[liberalmuse]

48. Independents are kind of fickle...

They go back and forth a lot. I suppose people want life to work like a movie, where the President comes out with his Big Daddy stick and starts kicking serious ass. Come to think of it, I'd like to see that, LOL.

[DCBob]

49. this is all about the debt "crisis".

he is being blamed, mostly unfairly, by the Indy's for not bringing both sides together in an agreement.

[dameocrat67]

50. I think the democratic party has lost alot of progressives in the last

two years.

[robcon]

61. No evidence in the polls for that opinion.

n/t

[dameocrat67]

65. Evidence

The phenomenal growth of independents in the past 2 years has been completely at the expense of democrats.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145463/democratic-party-drops-2010-tying-year-low.aspx

sorry.

[robcon]

67. Sorry... that's not evidence AT ALL that Obama has lost independents.

It means that Democrats have lost party affiliations.

That's not even CLOSE to being the same as losing a share of independent voters.

[dameocrat67]

68. then evidently you havent been paying attention for the last week.

evidence independents dont like obama.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/independent-voters-sour-president-obama-183041986.html

indeed you dont even have the attention span for the original post in this thread.

[quinnox]

51. People in general don't like weak presidents

The wishy-washy air has surrounded Obama for months now and people don't respect a president with no principles or strength.

[woo me with science]

75. Yep. +1 Combine wishy washy* with their increasingly desperate situation,

and people will be willing to try ANY change.

*on edit: Make that "the perception of wishy washy." He is actually doing a very effective job of getting what he wants.

[blkmusclmachine]

52. It didn't work in 2010, and it won't work in 2012 either. The WH already knows this:

The WH needs cover for the RW legislation it's pushing, and so-called "independents" are the WH's ruse of choice. The WH knows EXACTLY what it's doing.

[EFerrari]

74. Yep. And in particular, these voters already said they care about jobs.

So cutting spending isn't going to impress them when it hikes unemployment.

[DefenseLawyer]

54. Everything will be fine once Ross Perot throws his hat in the ring

The tried and true Democratic election strategy

[Poll_Blind]

56. Independents care about Social Security & Medicare too!

PB

[NCarolinawoman]

59. Exactly. And they care about jobs! n/t

[woo me with science]

76. Now that's a powerful dirty little secret. nt

[JoeyT]

63. We wouldn't have thought it a year ago,

but it looks like the presidency is on the table. Maybe someone can push Social Security and Medicare off to one side to make room for it. Or maybe putting SS/Medicare there is what put the presidency there too.

[mmonk]

64. I heard an independent voter on the radio ask why wasn't he

standing up for the middle class and against the Republicans (specifically Tea Partiers) concerning debt ceiling lifting and cuts.

[Doctor_J]

66. Indys don't like appeasement either

How could anyone be impressed by a man who never gets anything during "deliberations"? And who puts "entitlement" cuts on the table at the beginning? He's supposed to be a leader.

[Tatiana]

69. These results reflect the fact that no one likes a WEAK President and Obama is definitely weak.

I'm sure independents are shaking their heads over the President of the United States being held hostage by a bunch of freshmen wingnuts. Moreover, it appears that the wingnuts are the actual WINNERS in this debate and most people want to be on the winning side.

It's stupid reasoning, but hey... clearly our education system isn't what it used to be.

[bluestate10]

70. Generic republican means that the republican does not have a face and a record.

No republican matches up once that person has a face and a record. Romney looks good now, but his record on jobs destruction and waffling will doom him when the direct campaign against President Obama heats up. Rick Perry is already starting to spring leaks as his record gets scrutinized. Pawlenty left Minnesota with enormous state debt and his extreme social views will turn off indies once Indies are confronted with Pawlenty's record during the heat of a general campaign. Romney, even as some hail him, would be a rather easy republican for President Obama to defeat once Romney's history is shown to the public. The spate of intransigence by House republicans is going to be a negative for the republican party. President Obama's current ills are directly tied to the uptick in unemployment. Unemployment should be measurably lower when 2013 elections come about.

[amborin]

73. independents had also strongly favored a robust Public Option....

[Odin2005]

81. That's because the "centrist independent swing voter" is a myth.