What is Needed is Doomed Big Jobs Plan as an Excuse for Unilateral Action
By: Jon Walker
August 30, 2011
Going small would be a political disaster in every scenario. I agree with David Dayen, it is probably impossible to structure any stimulus plan in a way that gets Republican support. If Obama goes small, he will piss of his base and still get nothing. On the off chance the GOP agrees to a really small-bore jobs plan, it will probably not do enough to improve the weak economy noticeably. That leaves Obama with a still bad economy and everyone blaming Obama because the Republicans agreed to “his plan” and it didn’t work.
Demanding a big jobs plan that is destined to fail in Congress is better politics, but only slightly. It at least helps inspire the base and gives Obama an excuse for blaming the poor economy on the GOP’s refusal to act. Passing the popular parts of the big jobs plan can inspire people to vote for Congressional Democrats in 2012. While this better rhetoric should help politically on the margins, presidential elections are mostly decided by the state of the economy. Even really good speeches won’t be enough to improve what looks to be a stalling economy.
That is why the Obama administration needs to choose a third course. Obama should acknowledge the economy is bad, lay out a big direct jobs plan, and demand the GOP pass the whole thing. When the Republicans quickly make it clear they won’t pass the big jobs plan, Obama can publicly make it clear that Republican intransigence “forced” him to be creative with the powers he currently has. At this point, Obama should unilaterally implement his “Plan B,” creatively using unspent TARP money and using the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to implement massive mortgage refinancing and own-to-rent programs. If done right, it’s a substantial stimulus.
If the economy still doesn’t grow even after the added unilateral stimulus, Obama is doomed; but he would be doomed regardless of the jobs speech he goes with. But if the economy experiences strong growth, Obama can take sole credit for it. Similarly, if the economy grows only modestly, he sets himself up to take all the credit for what growth there is giving the blame for the slowness of the growth to the GOP and its refusal to pass his big jobs program. Politically, this positions Obama as best as can be expected given the state of the economy.
Read the full article at:
http://elections.firedoglake.com/2011/08/30/what-is-needed-is-doomed-big-jobs-plan-as-an-excuse-for-unilateral-action/