In the 2012 election, Democrats will :

[demwing]

...Will What?

What's your gut telling you about how the question in the subject line will be answered come Nov 2012? As much as Obama has disappointed some here, including myself, I think he'll win reelection by a narrow margin - not due to his leadership, but because the GOP line-up is scarier than hell. I see up taking back the House as well, for the same reason.

So again - In the 2012 election, Democrats will:

[Poll_Blind]

1. Other. No idea at this point.

PB

[demwing]

2. Don't answer from your head

answer from your gut - what does your most basic political instinct tell you?

[gateley]

5. How would you vote, demwing?

I said we'll keep it all.

[demwing]

9. In the OP, I said I think Obama will pull off a narrow win

and we'll take back the House as well.

I don't think Dems have earned a sweep, but we'll get it anyway, because the other team is a collection of right fucking villains, and the last few months have proven so.

[gateley]

21. I don't care how narrow a win we get, as long as it's a win. The

alternative scares the hell out of me.

Sorry I didn't catch that in your OP - :hi:

[Poll_Blind]

11. Neither are offering up a clear answer. Obama is at war with the Progressives in his own party...

...and the ideals it classically stood for while the Republicans are climbing over each other to be the craziest candidate.

LOL, I don't see any clear answer coming out of the dynamic any time soon.

PB

[demwing]

15. i think you're spot on, but the scenario you paint leaves a big hole

into which a Third Party Candidate can enter. If a Ross Perot type were to jump in, I could see him/her taking the Whitehouse. Obama will be running as "I'm not THOSE guys" and a 3rd Party Candidate can up the ante and run as "I'm not EITHER of THOSE guys"...

[Poll_Blind]

19. Yeah, a moderate 3rd party candidate or a really moderate Republican who can...

...do the best impression of Candidate Obama in 2008 could present a real challenge for the President. Basically, it would be the President running against his rhetoric as a candidate and I see a big uphill climb for him if that's the case.

PB

[gateley]

3. You have a good point - we really DON'T know what will happen.

We've learned that time and time again.

[digitaln3rd]

4. Lose the Senate, win the House.. and it will probably be close with the Presidency.

n/t

[CrispyQ]

8. That's how I'd call it too. --nt

[Rochester]

Would that be the first time that...

...both houses of Congress changed hands in opposite directions at the same time?

[leftstreet]

6. Democratic timidity and ineffectiveness is setting us up for a new Reagan

Obama will probably retain the Presidency, but it won't really matter

[MilesColtrane]

7. Contempt for those in Congress is at an all time high.

However, when it comes down to a voter tossing his own representative out, very few do.

It's a tough call this far out, but I'll say we see a flip flop. Republicans narrowly take the Senate and Democrats get back the House.

[Demit]

10. Too much can happen between now and then to have any idea. It's too far away.

You really can only ask 'If the election were held this November, how do you think Democrats will do?'

I think it's quite possible that the final Republican contender hasn't stepped up yet. The point of the current GOP lineup might just be to leach out all the crazy.

[demwing]

12. If the Real Gop Candidate hasn't appeared

he/she has got to do so soon. What's the requirement for getting on the ballot in the primaries come Febuary?

[Safetykitten]

13. He will be defeated in a Carteresque landslide.

[Vogon_Glory]

14. Take Back The House, Keep The Senate, BUT

I suspect that public disgust and anger with the Republicans' antics in the House and Senate will reach a point where House and Senate Republicans are likely to find themselves reliving the 2006 elections all over again.

The trouble is the White House. Our President still hasn't gotten it through his head that the Republicans and their Tea Party faction are passionately, viciously partisan, and are more than willing not only to blow up any political and economic initiatives he comes up with, but are more than willing to throw the country into recession and the federal government into default if they don't get their way.

I am increasingly fearful that while the Democrats may retake the House, while the Democrats might even EXPAND their majority in the US Senate, President Obama might lose the White House to Rick Perry.

President Obama's behavior has an increasingly distressing resemblance to that of an incumbent politician unknowingly headed for a landslide defeat--a politician who will break his supporters' hearts LONG BEFORE he loses at the ballot box.

:argh:

:dem:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. Obama wins. House tightens. Senate?

Obama will win because the Republicans will most likely nominate a complete, and obvious, ultra-right wing buffoon.

The tea-party has shot it's populist wad and has shown itself to be just a mob of rednecked racists and thugs. The Republicans as a whole are too frightened to rid themselves of them. The people will do so in the elections for the house.

The Senate? Who knows?

That said, there are any number of possible crises that could drive the electorate to vote for "change" of any stripe.

[demwing]

17. I think Obama ought to double down on Hope and Change

And sell the message that he tried to bring civility to Washington, but the Tea Party lead GOP turned Hope into Nope, and Change into "Spare any Change, mister?"

Then pivot, and sell a populist change. Campaign for a bulletproof majorities in the Senate and House, and 4 more years to finish the job fixing what the GOP broke 4 years back.

I seriously think he should start an all out populist class warfare battle. Balls to the wall. Labor will join in, and the middle class of America (those Independent voters the WH cares so much about) will hit the streets so hard Wisconsin will look like a Founders Day Parade down Main St. in beautiful downtown Bumfuck, Nebraska.

[War Horse]

18. From personal experience only

No polls, statistics or anything like that, but I know several life long Rs who are so disgusted with the GOTP that they will vote Obama (and I believe them when they say they will).

At the same time there are those on the left who are so disaffected that they might not even vote at all.

Based on this I see Obama gaining some disgruntled Rs and maybe losing some of the Left.

I have no idea how this will end up, really...

[demwing]

20. I anticipate 8 more months of wooing the Center

and then 2-3 of red meat for the left to help GOTV. I will feel used and betrayed, but what choice will I have? I will vote for Obama...grinding my teeth the whoe time.

I'm so fucking tired of being a member of a party that does not represent my interests, they just stand as the only opposition to the other party, who openly mocks and derides my interests.

[applegrove]

22. Obama has taken such a beating over the last year that when he finally does step up

and 'clock the bully' he will be a hero to Americans. It will be like a movie where the victim finally fights back. It will feel great.

[demwing]

23. You have great faith

that's admirable

[Fearless]

24. Historically when the economy is bad the party in power loses seats.

The economy hasn't been this bad in 70 years. Sadly, I see a landslide victory for many swing districts for Republicans. My only hope is that people wake up and the Democratic party finds its spine in time for the midterm elections.