The ‘food bubble’ is bursting, says Lester Brown, and biotech won’t save us

[marmar]

from Grist:



The ‘food bubble’ is bursting, says Lester Brown, and biotech won’t save us
by Tom Philpott

12 Jan 2011 3:53 PM


For years -- even decades -- Earth Policy Institute president and Grist contributor Lester Brown has issued Cassandra-like warnings about the global food system. His argument goes something like this: Global grain demand keeps rising, pushed up by population growth and the switch to more meat-heavy diets; but grain production can only rise so much, constrained by limited water and other resources. So, a food crisis is inevitable.

In recent years, two factors have added urgency to Brown's warnings: 1) climate change has given rise to increasingly volatile weather, making crop failures more likely; and 2) the perverse desire to turn grain into car fuel has put yet more pressure on global grain supplies.

Brown's central metaphor -- which he's been using at least since the mid-‘90s -- will be familiar to readers who've lived through the previous decade's recent dot-com and real-estate meltdowns: the bubble. The world has entered a "food bubble," he argues; we've puffed up grain production by burning through unsustainable amounts of three finite resources: water, fossil fuels, and topsoil. At some point, he insists, the bubble has to burst.

Well, for the second time in three years, the globe is lurching toward a full-on, proper food crisis, especially in places like Haiti that have de-emphasized domestic farming and turned instead to the global commodity market for food. In 2008, global food prices spiked to all-time highs, and hunger riots erupted from Haiti to Morocco. Now prices are spiking again, and have already surpassed the 2008 peak, The Sydney Morning Herald reports. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.grist.org/article/food-2011-01-12-lester-brown-the-food-bubble-is-bursting

[defendandprotect]

1. K/R

[Hannah Bell]

2. lester brown pretended the "rice crisis" was real too. he's a shill.

[flvegan]

3. What's that about "meat-heavy diets" there?

:popcorn:

[marmar]

4. Bad, bad vegan

:spank: :P

[DCKit]

5. Horrible floods in Australia, Brazil, India and Sri Lanka.

A billion more hungry or starving this next year.

[Hannah Bell]

7. In just one month in July 2010, the price of wheat increased by 60%.

The huge increase in the price has already led to people across the world paying more for the staple food. The sudden change in the price of wheat has had knock-on effects on other crops. The global maize price increased by 40% between the start of July and the end of August.

At the end of August, demonstrations against rising food and fuel prices were held in Maputo, capital of Mozambique. 'I can hardly feed myself. I will join the protest because I'm outraged by this high cost of living,' said Nelfa Temoteo, who lives in Maputo's crowded Malhazine suburb. Protesters particularly complained of a sharp increase in the price of bread made from wheat. Mozambique tends to import between 200,000 and 400,000 tonnes of wheat a year.

Drought and the consequent fall in Russia's wheat crop were quickly blamed for the spike in prices.

Yet the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) pointed out that despite events in Russia there was still plenty of wheat in the world.<1> The US in particular was producing a bumper wheat harvest.

Hussein Allidina, head of commodity research at the bank Morgan Stanley, said: 'Fundamentals do not seem to support the rally, with inventories, especially in the US, abundant and poised to increase with the arrival of a good spring wheat crop.'<2>

http://www.stwr.org/food-security-agriculture/massive-bank-and-hedge-fund-speculation-causes-food-prices-to-soar.html

[Gregorian]

6. Why is discussing population so difficult.

We were talking about food supply in the 20's. We began supercharging the soil with man made nitrogen in order to feed the growing population. In other words, we decided that we would ignore population limits, and start living on an artificial ledge. There is exactly as much water on the planet as there was in the beginning. Except for a tiny, insignificant amount that I am forced to mention in order to satisfy the smart asses who like to be pedantic. We don't make water. So there is at least one limit that will never change. Yet we talk about water shortage as if there is now less. How blind can we be to population to think that we're short on water and food. Just look around at how the planet is dying. No fish in the streams, acidification of ocean waters because of the nitrogen we have produced in order to grow the food to feed too many people.

Are we going to talk about population, or the symptoms? If we talk about the symptoms, then we will be forced to work harder and harder to accomplish less and less. Electric cars will only alter carbon dioxide production by a fraction of that required to keep the planet from changing into one that may be uninhabitable by future generations.

What is with the human race that it cannot simply face the fact that it must stop reproducing at this rate.

[Grey]

8. You are absolutely right.

[Gregorian]

13. Wow, with such impressive lurkage

I am honored to have your reply. Thanks. I probably blab too much, and people like you probably should join in more often.

Cheers.

[SoCalDem]

9. Because no one wants to be told how many kids to have

even though sensible people do control their family sizes.

[RandomThoughts]

10. Becuase those that are capable of sterilizations and mass murders.

Pick the wrong people to remove.

If you make the argument for lower population, and then use food shortages or economic shortages to keep people from having children and families, then you are not the person that should decide who has families.


There is an argument in the normal that lower population would make things easier.


Earth can easily handle 40 to 80 billion people, weather it should or not, should be the choice of individuals.


If you want to reduce population, then educate why people could choose to not have children, don't take away the ability or choice for people to have children or health care and economic stability.


Side note, I am still due beer and travel money.

[Hannah Bell]

12. Current global total fertility rate per woman is hovering around 2.5 children per woman,

down from 4.9 during the 50s.

most of the world is already at or near zpg, the major exception being africa, the poorest continent in the world.

But Americans with their small families use more resources than africans with their large ones -- on average.

It's not just about population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

[Synnical]

11. And fossil fuels and clean water

Planet Earth is in danger.