So it looks like my district in NYC district is about to go Repuke.

[edhopper]

I live in Weiner's old district. Heavily Democratic, but our Dem candidate now trails by 6 points. The Repug is an asshole, but folks are still going to vote for him.
So next time I hear Obama will easily be re-elected or the Dems will retake the house, I'll remember that most voters just aren't paying attention and we could easily see a GOP sweep in 2012.

[Lasher]

1. IIRC the GOP candidate is being helped substantially by endorsement by Orthodox Jews.

Is that correct?

[brooklynite]

6. Pro-Israel supporters have decided to make this race about Middle East policy

Apparently there isn't much to discuss about the economy.

[Dawson Leery]

10. Is this poll accurate then?

What are Weprin's chances?

[brooklynite]

13. PPP is a reliable pollster...

That being said, this is an off-off-year election, and may hinge on turn-out operations.

[aquart]

16. Yeah, why would a German-Jewish community support Israel?

Or think their lives depend on it? Not like there are people eager to hate them here for exercising their right to vote.
RIGHT?

[Exilednight]

63. I often wonder why America supports Israel, carte blanche. n/t

[Unvanguard]

Only a small fraction of the district thinks Israel is a decisive issue.

It isn't about same-sex marriage either. It is about people disaffected with the economy in a not-so-Democratic district, and an apparently effective campaign by a Republican politician against an apparently ineffectual Democrat.

[edhopper]

41. Dems outnumber Repubs

3 to 1 here. It is very Democratic!

[Bluenorthwest]

46. Then it is all about GOTV

In any election, there are more people simply not voting than you would ever need to win. Get them to vote and you win.

[Unvanguard]

49. Lots of conservative southern states have a Democratic edge in registration.

It's meaningless. What you want is not how people in the district are registered, but how people in the district vote.

[edhopper]

50. Democratic

like forever. This is the middle of Queens in NYC, not the south, not Long Island, NYC!

[Unvanguard]

54. It leans about five points Democratic in presidential elections.

It's rare for seats with that kind of party lean to have House representation from the other party, but it's far from unprecedented.

[edhopper]

56. No, that was just in 08

Weiner won by almost 20% in 2010.
We cannot spin this away from the Dems are in big trouble.

[Unvanguard]

58. No, it isn't.

I'm referring to the Cook Partisan Voting Index score for NY-09. The score is calculated by looking at the past two presidential elections, and comparing the district vote to the average national vote. The average of the difference in 2004 and 2008 is +5.

2010 is irrelevant, because Weiner was an incumbent, and the dynamics of elections with an incumbent are vastly different from ones without. The fact that this is a special election might also make a difference. The Democrats suffered a more stunning (and vastly more consequential) loss when Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat, but there was no comparable victory to that one in Nov. 2010, not even in Massachusetts itself, where the Democrats swept statewide offices.

[edhopper]

59. I don't agree

Year Democrat Republican
2008 Barack Obama: 55% John McCain: 44%
2004 John Kerry: 56% George W. Bush: 44%
2000 Al Gore: 68% George W. Bush: 30%


Kerry won bigger in a losing Presidential bid and Gore kicked ass.

Unfortunately I think Obama's race hurt him here in 08.

This is not just about this district and bodes very badly for 2012.

[Unvanguard]

60. Actually, those numbers are even more in accordance with my point.

Obama got about 53% of the vote nationwide, so in the most recent presidential election, the district leaned Democratic, relative to the national average, by only two points.

By all appearances, it looks like lots of people in the district really aren't fond of President Obama: plausibly his race does play a significant part in that. And this is manifesting in a willingness to vote for Turner over Weprin. It doesn't help that Weprin is apparently a rather bad candidate.

[edhopper]

62. I think we are seeing things

from different angles, but coming to the same conclusion. The Dems are screwed.

[Unvanguard]

33. Duplicate. n/t

[aquart]

9. Gosh, you hounded a guy out of office without knowing his district?

I wonder why a German Jewish community thinks Israel is important. Could you hazard a guess?

[edhopper]

42. Who "hounded" him out

Weiner kept a majority support in his district during the scandal.

[Llewlladdwr]

14. Why does that matter?

You aren't implying that this is some sort of nefarious Hebrew plot, are you?

[aquart]

17. Duh.

Don't you know it's all the fault of the Jews?

[KamaAina]

20. Which is kind of rich, seeing as how the Dem candidate is an Orthodox Jew.

:eyes:

[aquart]

26. Party hack. Lackluster party hack.

DU thought this seat was a rotten borough and replacing Weiner would be a cakewalk.

I may never stop being disgusted.

[KamaAina]

28. Yup, lackluster party hacks look pretty bad

that is, until you compare them to repukes. :puke:

[Bluenorthwest]

47. 'Lackluster' is a word used by Democrats to explain why they

are about to let a Republican win. Gray Davis v Arnold. Davis was 'lackluster'. So they went with Arnie, twice.
Every time I hear that word, I wonder what the fuck it really means. What is this luster, which the Republican always has, but the Democrat lacks? What does this quality of luster do for the district once elected?
How can I tell if a candidate has luster or lacks luster? Can luster be learned?
And if the goal is to elect a Democrat, how does your 'lackluster hack' routine help GOTV?

[ClarkUSA]

2. The district is not "heavily Democratic" at all. There's a large number of Republicans & indies.

That's what The New York Times said, as I recall.

[edhopper]

43. It is 3 to 1 Democratic

and id does seem to be about the Democrats and Obama.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/why-democrats-are-losing-anthony-weiners-seat.php?ref=fpblg

This is a bad sign for 2012.

[still_one]

3. I do not think anyone here is that confident that Obama will be easily re-elected, especially if he

goes up against romney

In addition, who knows how stupid the American people are, much of the problems we are going through can be laid directly at the feet of the republicans. Deregulation was started by reagan, both for financial institutions and business. The anti-labor agenda started by reagan is a mainstay of the republican platform.

In addition, there is a lot of frustration with the President from the progressives in the party, however, it will be the so-called independents that decide the election

[aquart]

11. Great superior attitude toward your fellow Americans.

That should work real well. I know it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

[primavera]

37. If the shoe fits

A knuckle-dragging flat earther is a knuckle-dragging flat earther, whether that fact is politically polite or not.

[still_one]

61. Just look at the midterm election results, and superior attitude or not, the results were not so

Great, and the reflection they shed on the voting public, is not very inspiring to me

[gateley]

21. It will depend on if voters have a job when the election occurs.

As the OP said, most don't pay attention to the politics, but know how much they have to struggle. If the majority of people are scraping by and counting their pennies (if they have any), Obama's gone. That's what happened to HW even though the economy was beginning to improve.

[elocs]

4. The Dems are not going to take the House & will be very fortunate to hold the Senate.

Will Obama be defeated? Never say never, stranger things have happened.

Of course if he does lose and Republicans control everything, welcome to Hell.

[izquierdista]

12. And if he wins.....

The Repubs only control the Supreme Court, the House, the airwaves, the debate, and the talking points.

I view the Obama Presidency as a breath of fresh air -- while the Repubs fill their pitcher to start the next round of waterboarding the average American.

[elocs]

34. Here in WI the GOP controls everything. I only wish we had a Democratic governor like MN

who can at least put the breaks on the Republicans.

An Obama win would give us at least that, or so we could hope.

[a kennedy]

44. lots of folks here scoffed at this......Repubs control the senate....

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=639655 and I know it's early, but.......just a thought. and it does look like hell.

[elocs]

55. Hey, from across the river. At least in MN you have a Democratic governor.

If Obama were to somehow lose next year we would be in a world of hurt, literally.

[AverageJoe90]

5. I'll never forgive Breitbart for what he and that other guy pulled............

...but I'm still not happy about Weiner capitulating as quickly as he did. Perhaps he thought it would help him, but it only destroyed his career, and rather quickly at that.

On the other hand, it's only one district, and Weiner's old one at that. Who's gonna want to vote for a scandal-ridden politico regardless of whether or not he was actually guilty, anyway?
The average Joe & Mary probably wouldn't.

[elleng]

8. As usual, its the 'cover-up' that gets them.

Too damn bad. Can't believe this happening in NYC!

[aquart]

18. Funny. You think they would have let it go if Weiner had come clean.

That is so sweet and innocent.

[AverageJoe90]

29. Talking to me or the other guy?

Basically, I agree with you in a way.

[newspeak]

51. yeah, and look where Vitter is today?

Did worse than Weiner, still holding on--the sad thing is Weiner was for the people, he was our representative while Vitter represents big business over us. Yep, Weiner had to go, can't have someone who represents the people over big business.

Maybe some in New York are disheartened by seeing their senator thrown under the bus by their own? I hope they get out in vote--would you screw yourself just to make a point?

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. Capitulating quickly? You are misremembering fairly recent history

He let this thing drag on for almost three weeks.

[NNN0LHI]

7. The real lesson to take from this is if Obama goes down he won't go down alone

So I hope the Obama haters have their fun now.

I have already altered my plans to prepare for this likelihood.

Don

[gateley]

25. We can't just blame the people who are kvetching here

about Obama.

There are millions of Americans who are hurting a LOT financially, and unless they see results by 2012, they'll try the other guy. It doesn't matter if he's digging out of a mess that was dumped on him, they'll figure he hasn't helped, maybe someone else can. :shrug:

I'd hate to see that happen, I will do what I can to keep any Republican away from the WH, and I'm still supporting Obama anyway, but those of us who are paying attention to the nuts and bolts are in the minority, IMO.

[gateley]

15. Why do you think the Dem candidate is trailing? If Weiner

hadn't gone off on his ego trip, do you think he would have been reelected?

[aquart]

22. Ah. This is WEINER's fault.

Yeah, he would have been re-elected. He was a popular, pro-Israel incumbent. If they didn't start organizing a primary when he married a Muslim, then they were fine with him.

[gateley]

27. I'm so mad at him for doing this, but you get that fame and

power and your brain tilts, I swear.

I was thinking about him the other day, wondering if he's surfaced at all. Have you heard anything?

[Gin]

39. I thought his district was going to be redistricted...

[AverageJoe90]

30. Yep.

Had Weiner stayed the course instead of flip-flopping he might still have been ruined but at least Breitbart & a certain other someone would've been exposed for the liars they are, to many more people.

[sufrommich]

23. Why are your heavily democratic voters going to vote for

a republican?

[Broderick]

24. They are using polls to disenfranchise Democrat voters

Do NOT fall for it! If you live there, get out and vote. Talk to people on the corner and drag them to the polls. Don't let our bought and paid for polling companies and the mass media dictate our representatives.

[Freddie Stubbs]

36. Even Democratic polling firms are bullish about this race:

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/statuses/111985726626873344

[Unvanguard]

32. It's not that Democratic. There is a big Democratic edge in registration.

But in the way the district actually votes, the Democratic edge is more marginal: about D+6, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index.

[Vinca]

31. Damn that Weiner and his weiner.

:banghead:

[primavera]

35. Do you know why?

Admittedly, Dems haven't done much to deserve to stay in office of late, so I certainly have no difficulty imagining why voters would be disillusioned with them. But still, what do voters think the alternative is? There can't be that many people who think that wackos like Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are a better alternative. God knows, we Dems certainly hear all the time about how we have to support spineless, quisling Dems because they're better than the alternative. Doesn't that sort of cut both ways, though? Do Repukes really want to see their party and their country continue on in the lunatic fringe Teabagger vein they've been following of late?

[Zax2me]

38. WHAT?! Good grief....

hopefully not.
Get out the vote!

[joeybee12]

40. Yup, if we get 5 seats total in the House in 2012 that would be something...

We are so screwed.

[rug]

45. I used to work in Kew Gardens. What the hell happened?

[BlueMTexpat]

48. What a shame, if so.

But what are you personally doing to GOTV and inform voters?

Have you volunteered to help the Dem candidate?

If we really want to see Dems win, we have to get off our bums and do something about it.

[Odin2005]

52. "Dem" does not equal "liberal"

Many "Dems" in NYC are finance industry twits that are socially liberal but also pro-corporatist.

[edhopper]

53. Working class

Queens.
This is all dissatisfaction with Obama and Congress.

[JVS]

57. So, where did the pressure for Weiner to resign come from? Blame those people.

[pintobean]

64. How about blaming Weiner.

Without his stupid, asinine actions, he would still be in office.

[JVS]

65. According to the polling, even with his actions he could have stayed in office.

Would the people who decided to eat their fellow dem please raise their hands?

[pintobean]

66. We posted our opinions

on an anonymous message board and brought down a sitting US congressman. Man, do I feel powerful.
:hi:

[JVS]

67. Who said anything about us? I was referring to the people within the party that pressured him out.

[edhopper]

68. His district still supported him

It was Pelosi, Schumer and Obama who pressured him to go.