Advance excuses for a NY-9 loss

[brooklynite]

nb - personally, I think we still have a chance because this race is dependent on party-driven turnout, but in case I'm wrong, we can speed things up and move on to more important issues.

[Broderick]

1. I think things might turn out to be surprising.

Got my fingers crossed on this one.

[closeupready]

2. Gay marriage.

nt

[TheWraith]

3. How about the reality: swiftboating and islamophobia.

The Reps went in to a heavily orthodox Jewish district and painted Weprin as pro-terrorist, including basically saying Weprin supported terrorists building a victory mosque on Ground Zero, complete with video of the World Trade Center burning and collapsing, pictured side by side with a photo of a mosque, and a smiling Obama.

[brooklynite]

7. I said "excuses", not "legitimate reasons"...

[monmouth]

4. I saw Weprin on Ed's show the other night and thought he was great...n/t

[Cool Logic]

5. There is also the possibility that Turner is a Bloomberg Republican...

You know...a Democrat.

Rs are heavily outnumbered in NYC--sometimes it takes a D with an R after their name to ensure that the ballot is full.

[AngryAmish]

6. Bad pork.

It worked for Roberto Duran.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. A significant number of Jewish voters are not convinced that Obama is sufficiently pro-Isreal

[WI_DEM]

9. Everybody mentions that this is a stoutly dem district--yes, but...

It's an Archie Bunker type district. It's socially conservative. Obama got 55% in this district in 2008 which is a solid win, but when you look at the fact that he carried New York City overall with about 80% and NY as a whole by 62% he underperformed in this district.

Second, the candidate has run a lousy campaign and it's like we take some of these elections (like the MA senate race, too) for granted and think that they will automatically elect any bozo.

I'm hoping the overwhelming Dem edge will in the end give the Dem a victory, but not counting on it.

[pscot]

10. You left out the President's 31% approval rating

in the district and the fact that large numbers of Democrats are apparently planning to vote for the Repug.
PPP has the following:

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/republican-bob-turner-is-poised-to-pull-a-huge-upset-in-the-race-to-replace-anthony-weiner-as-the-congressman-from-new-yorks.html

[Arctic Dave]

11. How about: Wiener should never have been forced out.

One of the few things Obama has time to comment on.

Democratic issues, not so much.