Impact of NY-9 result on redistricting

[brooklynite]

The 9th district is almost certainly going to disappear before the 2012 election. However, New York is due to lose two seats. Assuming Gov. Cuomo can't get a non-partisan redistricting plan in place, the likely result will be an agreed on loss of one Republican seat and one Democratic seat. NY-9 will now be the Republican seat to go; the Democrats will now have to surrender an incumbent seat; likely in Upstate NY, which would mean the 21st (Paul Tonko), 22nd (Maurice Hinchey ), 23rd (Bill Owens), 26th (Kathy Hochul), 27th (Brian Higgins) or 28th (Louise Slaughter).

[TheWraith]

1. Hochul is the one with the least senority, and in a Republican-friendly district.

It's been suggested a lot that the "trade" is going to be bumping one downstate Rep in a D-friendly area, and one upstate Dem in an R-friendly area.

[frazzled]

2. I think it was always slated to be the Democratic seat to go, anyway

Wasn't it? From what I read, it probably wasn't going to survive. It is bad news, however, that another Democratic seat will have to go.