I don't think the NY 9th District is a bellwether for Republican landslide in 2012

[kentuck]

It is simply the result of the stupid and wayward actions of the previous Democratic representative. It turned voters off. We can defend Anthony Wiener all we like but the majority of the voters in his district were obviously not thrilled with his replacement.

I doubt very much that it is any indication of how voters will vote 14 months from now. Democrats should be aggressively seeking the House moreso than the Presidency. I think their odds are better with the House and a strong vote for Congress could actually carry Barack Obama to another victory. It's sort of a reverse coattails strategy but I think it is more logical than assuming that Barack Obama can carry Democrats to a victory in the House with his coattails...

[dennis4868]

1. You did not add that...

the demographivs of NY09 is not represented of the rest of the country - 1/3 ultra orthodox jewish hawkish for Israel.

[kentuck]

3. That could be a very big part of that race.

I would think.

[dennis4868]

4. of course...

the ultra orthodox jews said that it was against jewish law to vote for Weprin because he is for gay marriage...you lose the jewish vote in that district, you are done! :-(

[wellst0nev0ter]

7. Heh, I Wonder How Many Votes He Would Have Lost

if it came out he was against the stoning of disobedient children?

[dennis4868]

11. sad but true :-(

[RZM]

2. Absolutely

I'll bet that Obama's numbers only had a marginal effect here. The Dems lost this one on their own and it's nothing to get too concerned about. It happens.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

5. Nor do I

Some are saying that district will disappear in redistricting

[MineralMan]

6. It's "bellwether," just for accuracy, and here's its derivation:

"A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.
The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep.<1><2> The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellwether

[kentuck]

8. Sorry about that.

Thanks for the correction.

[MineralMan]

9. I just like the derivation of that word.

I'm not being the spelling nanny. Thanks for correcting it.

[kentuck]

10. That is an interesting derivation...

I did not know that.

[realFedUp]

12. The fact Dems in this district couldn't get a Dem elected

Says volumes about the state of the Democratic
machine. They still don't have a great messaging
system, few strong voices outside the ones we
can count on one hand and despite election fraud and systematic
the continued chipping away of the ability to vote in
this country.

I really can't believe hired Dems in that district couldn't
get a Dem re-elected. Everyone should be fired.
Shameful to say the least and in this day and age,
dangerous.

[WI_DEM]

13. Actually it had more to do with a faulty democratic nominee

Most voters don't blame somebody else for what another person did. If the Dems had nominated a strong, competent candidate he/she would have won.

[GKirk]

16. So how did the 'faulty democratic nominee'...

... get on the ballot. Was he the first person to raise his hand?

[Bluenorthwest]

14. Fewer than 60,000 total votes cast

Under 30,000 Democrats voted. Margin of victory under 5000 votes. Basically, in both Parties, the turn out was awful and on our side, better turn out could have flipped the results. Too bad. Again, this district seems to have many Democrats who only show for O, and they are not that useful to the Party.

[UTUSN]

15. K&R #2 for, thanks for the common sense. n/t