Unemployment applications "unexpectedly" rose last week to the highest level since the end of June

[marmar]

(Bloomberg) Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market.

Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 411,000, according to the median forecast.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Cisco Systems Inc. are among companies planning to keep trimming payrolls, raising the risk that consumer spending will stagnate. Signs the labor market is struggling to gain traction puts more pressure on President Barack Obama, lawmakers and the Federal Reserve for additional steps to spur the economy.

“Job growth is moving sideways, which is problematic,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “We really need the labor market to improve to generate the wages to support consumer spending.” ................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/u-s-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise-to-428-000-highest-level-since-june.html

[Coyote_Bandit]

1. The labor market is not going to improve significantly until

the asshats in Washington (1) change the policies that encourage and reward offshoring and outsourcing (2) enact policies that actually encourage competition in business and (3) makde capital available to new business startups and other micro and small businesses.

Not likely to happen. The asshats in Washington have to pal around with the corporate big boys so that they can become a corporate lobbyist or board members if they ever leave Washington. Taking care of the corporate boys is their golden parachute.

[okieinpain]

7. and it's really not going to happen if they are still making a

profit without doing any of the above.

[Broderick]

2. Why is it unexpected?

What was expected? Do they ever leave their posh surroundings and look at the despair in the country? Is it because these folks have "theirs"?

[Hydra]

4. It's "unexpected" because they want us to believe a lie

That things will fix themselves and that it's "coming, just around the corner!"

If you've ever watched the movie "Spawn," Terry, the token good guy, is promising Jason Wynn is on top of things and will be fixing everything ASAP...while Wynn is watching this on TV and laughing his ass off about how well Terry is keeping order as everything is "going to hell in a handbasket."

The propaganda is working as long as most people think that they have nothing to worry about.

[taught_me_patience]

8. It's because you don't understand what "unexpected" means

It simply means that it didn't match the "expectation". However, you need to understand how the "expectation" is derived... it is a average of a number of independent economists predictions. There is no agenda... it's just a statistical number.

[Hydra]

11. Uh, no, that would be inaccurate

In this case, the trends being predicted have about no basis in reality, and haven't since the crash occurred because a very important element is missing from the calculations.

Where is the demand going to come from?

This isn't "unexpected" to anyone paying attention. It's "predictable" and "anticipated."

[taught_me_patience]

12. If it's predictable, please provide your prediction for next week's unemployment claims.

Let's see how "predictable" it is.

Again, you are misinterpretating the meaning of "unexpected". "Unexpected" means that it did not match the average forecast of economists. The average is just a statistical measure of central tendency.

[girl gone mad]

13. I think you're still getting it wrong.

Most of the economists surveyed were far too optimistic, a pattern which we see recurring continually. The problem is that in the economics profession accountability often takes a back seat to the ideological biases of neoliberal think tanks.

[Hydra]

14. Well, considering they predicted a drop of 18,000 claims

When in fact it rose 11k, I'm going to predict +7k for a total of 435k. The BOA and Cysco thing hasn't hit yet, and some people will drop off the rolls for being on unemployment for too long which will make it look less scary than it is.

The actual trend is that we're hemorrhaging jobs. This isn't some sort of statistical pretzel. The number of jobless will continue to rise until the Gov't starts hiring people directly, since the private sector is happy with less people on the payroll doing more work.

Or if I boil it down a little more, the prediction went something like this:

"Economists": We predict that 1 + 1 = 6

After the real numbers come out

"Economists": We are startled to discover that 1 + 1 = 2, not 6. We have no idea why it's 2...

[taught_me_patience]

15. These are initial claims

So your statement "and some people will drop off the rolls for being on unemployment for too long which will make it look less scary than it is." has no bearing on the number.

I'll mark this post and see how you do.

[Hydra]

17. Oh, you're quite right, my bad

I thought the number was low for people actually on the rolls, but near 1/2 a million new claims is pretty scary, huh?

I'll stick with my number though. It's probably lowballing it, but I've seen the numbers in the past around 435-450k so it shouldn't be an overshot.

[taught_me_patience]

19. Scary. Anything over 400k is not good.

I think it goes down to 410k or so. I think this week's number was artificially inflated by the hurricane.

[Broderick]

20. I will guess 415

And we will be told jobless claims FALL. lol

[xchrom]

3. SURPRISE!!!

:eyes:

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Let me reach for this

Ah, better

[Starry Messenger]

6. Whoever thought this was "unexpected" should be fired.

[taught_me_patience]

10. "Unexpected" means that differed from the forecast

But the forecast is nearly meaningless because it is an average of many "blue chip" economic forecasts.

[leftstreet]

9. No one could have predicted...n/t

[WCGreen]

16. I wonder if the people who are filing for Unemployment are teachers

who were let go at the end of the school year but were paid up through the end of August or the beginning of September because they were paid to the end of the fiscal year.

[fascisthunter]

18. unexpected my ass.... most with brains knew outsourcing

attacking unions and forcing people to do the work of three employees was going to lead to this shit.

[Broderick]

21. throw in the mix

free trade, tax breaks for profits out of country, incentives for moving manufacturing overseas etc. Who would have thunk it.

[fascisthunter]

22. yup... anyone saying it was not expected is a liar

[Broderick]

23. Worse than liars.

Most are evil.

[hunter]

24. This word "unexpectedly" these economists and analysts keep using...

... I do not think it means what they think it means.

If I may offer my translation:

"Unemployment applications rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, and nya, nya, nya, little peasants, I've got this fantastic job spewing bullshit and my investments are doing very well, thank you!"