new Right-wing Rasmussen 9/15 poll - Obama 46% Perry 39%

[banned from Kos]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups

"A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.) "

[FBaggins]

1. Here's hoping the more reliable polls aren't as bad. nt

[Broderick]

2. Obama kicking ass

and taking names.

Woohoo.

Bring in the clowns cause I want to see coattails to a new congress and senate with 60+ democrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. This Isn't Necessarily Good News

It's in our interest for Perry to flame out after he gets the nomination.

[FBaggins]

25. Necessarily?

It isn't good at all.

This far out from an election, polls don't mean much. But to the extent they mean anything, the incumbent's percentage is all that matters. To be sub-50 is bad news.

[SlimJimmy]

4. Until the President polls over 50% against a challenger, it is not good news.

Independents will traditionally swing to the challenger, so an incumbent must poll 50% percent or better to be in good shape for re-election.

[scheming daemons]

6. That's Dick Morris bullshit - theory has been disproved over and over

It assumes that 100% of undecided voters go to challenger.

Maybe a majority do, but not 100%.

If an incumbent is at or above 46% and challenger is under 40%, the incumbent almost always wins.

[SlimJimmy]

7. No, that historical data from many elections. A great majority of the

independents *do* break for the challenger. And that has been seen time and again. Whistle in the dark if you must, but I will feel much better politically, once the President gets to the 50% mark or better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. It's An Automated Poll

It would be more interesting to see the results if leaners are pushed.

[SlimJimmy]

9. Yes, that *would* make a difference (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. If Any Incumbent Is Up 46-40 On Election Eve I Would Feel Pretty Good

He or she would only need thirty or so percent of the undecideds.

[SlimJimmy]

13. Only if the swing vote had been calculated already. (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Undecideds Usually Break Against The Incumbent

But not at a rate of 7-3.

[SlimJimmy]

18. Look for any race to tighten considerably as the election nears. That's why I say

that President Obama needs to be at 50% or better to have a clear path to victory.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Have No Doubts This Is Going To Be A Tough Race

.

[jberryhill]

11. Which itself is a small sample space

I mean, really... treating a sample space of 40 odd events as if it is some kind of iron rule is silly.

It reminds me of the various incidental correlations such as "whether the National League team wins the World Series" and similar nonsense.

There used to be similar iron rules about "which candidate is taller" or "which candidate has more syllables in his last name".

[SlimJimmy]

15. It's not an *iron* rule, it's a strong indicator - one which should never

be discounted. Using historical data to assist in predicting future events is a sound method. The 2010 mid-term elections tend to prove the point. Most of the elections were fairly even when the undecideds were removed from the analysis. Most of the races we lost were due to the undecideds breaking about two to one against the incumbent.

[scheming daemons]

22. If Obama is up 46-39, and undecided break 2-1 for the GOP, then Obama wins 51-49.

[SlimJimmy]

24. Which puts him over the 50% *magic* number. I want to see him there prior to the election. (nt)

[FBaggins]

27. It isn't Morris' theory... it isn't really a theory at all.

It's established fact. A well-known incumbent regularly polling under 50% (in a 2-way race) is clearly in trouble. No only hasn't it been "disproven over an over"... it's pretty well accepted by the professionals (Cook/Silver/Sabato/etc).

If an incumbent is at or above 46% and challenger is under 40%, the incumbent almost always wins.

That's not at all true. If the election were tomorrow he would have a good chance, but a candidate everyone knows polling at 46% against someone most people don't know well... is in big trouble.

As if we didn't already know that the President was in deep trouble.

[Vogon_Glory]

5. To Know Slick Rick Is To ?

For the cynical and despairing voters to get to know Rick Perry is hopefully enough to propel them off the sidelines and if they aren't exactly enthused about no. 44, they'd realize that Rick Perry in the White House would be even WORSE than a George Dubya Bush third term.

:dem:

[David Sky]

12. Rick Perry will NEVER get the GOP nomination..he is hated by too many

big powers in the GOP. They already know he's too dumb to be President, and they DO remember how bad Bush was, and how Perry is like Bush with no brain matter at all in the cranium.

Perry will scare 50% of Republicans away from voting for him

But the more important race, (yes, more important, neither Romney nor Perry can win in 2012) is the Senate and House races.

We need to re-take BOTH the House and Keep the Senate at least 60 Dem votes. Then, and only then can Obama be forced to have a backbone.

[SlimJimmy]

17. I agree. His short term rise in the polls was to be expected. We saw the

same thing happen with Fred Thompson when he entered the 2008 race. He died fairly quickly once the *newness* wore off. I think the same thing is going to happen to Perry. I think the nomination is Romney's to lose.

[0rganism]

19. possible Spiro Agnew-like down-ticket lizard material though

Suspect they think he'll show favorably when played against Biden, and he'd be a useful loose cannon on the campaign trail.

[David Sky]

23. Shudder to think. Romney/Perry? OMG! It makes sense to REPUBS...but

it's such a scary thought, two conscienceless men without a single care other than to amass as much fame and fortune for themselves, screw anyone who doesn't agree with them, and dance with every big corporation and bank and insurance company in the world who will pay them to do so.

What a horrible idea.

[Vogon_Glory]

29. I Think Slick Rick Has A Chance Of Getting Nominated

I think that Slick Rick has a good chance for getting nominated as the Republican Party's presidential candidate. The GOP primaries tend to be heavily influenced by large numbers of right-wing hard-liners turning out to vote, and the hard-liners like Rick Perry. Barring some Republican turning up something that could cause Rick Perry to get indicted, I think that the activist base is going to go for Rick Perry.

Rick Perry might be hated by the party establishment, but numbers count. If enough wing-nuts go for him, it doesn't matter whether the establishment likes Mitt-sie more than Rick; Rick Perry will get the nomination.

What I'm HOPING for is that in the 2012 election, no matter how enthusiastic the Republican base might be for Perry, the rest of the country will be so frightened by his extremism or repelled by his crony-capitalist behavior that they'll vote Democratic.

:dem:

[0rganism]

16. meaningless until after the GOP primary

Their field is too split up right now, too many candidates for popular support to solidify, and too many possibilities for the campaigns to focus on a few central issues. The candidates still have to finish ripping each other apart. Also, the big money hasn't come into play yet, they're waiting to see who to put the ad money behind.

Enjoy your feelgood vibes for now, cos when the REAL polls start coming out next summer, chances are they won't look anything like this.

[fascisthunter]

21. I would not give credence to Rasmussen

whether it favors or doesn't favor a dem.

[Motown_Johnny]

26. They do this crap just so when they switch the numbers around it looks

like there was some huge swing and that the (R) suddenly has something going


Don't fall for it. Not even when you like the numbers. This is not a reliable source.

[JuniperLea]

28. That sounds right to me...

Just like they switch the little letter in parentheses next to a criminal politicians name on the TV chiron!

[Zax2me]

30. If it's right wing, why do they have Obama winning poll?

Wouldn't the fix be in, have him losing to Perry - or at least show it as a tie?

I think Obama would win in any poll.