A Rand Corp. study this week seemed to nip the conventional wisdom about medical marijuana dispensaries in the proverbial bud, contradicting statements from law enforcement officials that these facilities are magnets for crime. On the contrary, Rand researchers said, crime actually increased in the vicinity of hundreds of L.A. dispensaries after they were ordered to shut down.
Does this mean that dispensaries decrease neighborhood crime rather than increasing it? Unfortunately, despite Rand's analysis, we still don't know the answer. There are so many obvious problems with Rand's study that it's impossible to come to solid conclusions about crime either way.
First and most glaringly, Rand's findings are based on a large and unwarranted assumption: that the dispensaries ordered by the city to close their doors on June 7, 2010, when L.A.'s sweeping medical marijuana ordinance took effect, actually did so. There were thought to be about 600 dispensaries operating in the city at that time, of which 430 received notification that they would have to close. Rand looked at crime statistics during the 10 days before the ordered closure and the 10 days afterward, and compared the numbers for locations near facilities that supposedly closed and the 170 that didn't. Within three-tenths of a mile of the "closed" facilities, there were 59% more criminal incidents than there were within the same distance of those that remained open, and a 24% increase within six-tenths of a mile.
That's all very well, but there is no way of knowing whether those 430 dispensaries actually closed, and officials with the city attorney's office contend that many of them did not. Even if they did, the study really only tells us something about the immediate effect on crime of closing a medical marijuana facility, not whether these facilities increase crime on a long-term basis. If the dispensaries did close and if crime did go up nearby, it may be because, as the city attorney has argued, disgruntled former customers went on a rampage or because the facilities held fire sales to get rid of their inventory, driving more people to the area. Moreover, the 20-day time frame is too short for deriving reliable conclusions.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinionla/la-ed-marijuana-20110924,0,3679305.story