European wars, famine, and plagues driven by changing climate

[DainBramaged]

Economic chaos, famine, disease, and war may all be attributed to climate change, according to a recent study. Through advances in paleoclimatology, researchers used temperature data and climate-driven economic variables to simulate the climate that prevailed during golden and dark ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere from 1500-1800 AD. In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis. They noted that social disturbance, societal collapse and population collapse often coincided with significant climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times, suggesting that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in many preindustrial societies.

The General Crisis of the 17th Century in Europe was marked by widespread economic distress, social unrest, and population decline. A significant cause of mankind’s woes during these times was the climate-induced shrinkage of agricultural production. Bioproductivity, agricultural production, and food supply per capita all showed immediate responses to changes in temperature. In the five to 30 years following these changes, there were also responses in terms of social disturbance, war, migration, nutritional status, epidemics, and famine.

Cooling during the Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD) reduced crop yields by shortening the growing season and shrinking the cultivated land area. Although agricultural production decreased or became stagnant in a cold climate, population size still grew, leading to an increase in grain price and an increased demand on food supplies. Inflating grain prices led to hardships for many, and triggered social problems and conflicts such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms.

Many of these disturbances led to armed conflicts, and the number of wars increased 41 percent during the Cold Phase. During the latter portion of the Cold Phase, the number of wars decreased, but the wars lasted longer and were far more lethal—most notable was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), where fatalities were more than 12 times of the conflicts between 1500-1619.

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/10/european-wars-famine-and-plagues-driven-by-climate.ars

[FarCenter]

1. However, note that climate change only causes these effects when the population is to large

If the population were kept substantially below the carrying capacity of the agricultural base, then a reduction in output per hectare can be offset by bringing more land into cultivation.

[DainBramaged]

2. Hence removal of birth control, the upper class lowers the lower class population

fewer peons to worry about providing for........like today......

[FarCenter]

3. Well, war is effective -- the Thirty Years War reduced the population of Germany by about a third

Not so much by force or arms, but armies went back and forth over the country. Armies "live off the land" by foraging. Once they pass through, a swath of peasantry die of starvation since all of their grain, fodder, animals, etc., have been taken.