Democrats erase the 2010 Republican electoral advantage

[Donnachaidh]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2011/1/16/936641/-Democrats-erase-the-2010-Republican-electoral-advantage?utm_source=web&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos%29&utm_content=Twitter

A 7% national popular vote victory is a landslide in contemporary American politics. Democrats showed this in 2006 when they took back the House of Representatives with a 6.49% victory. President Barack Obama again made this point in 2008, when he defeated Senator John McCain by 7.27%. Just eleven weeks ago Republicans provided a third example when they won the national popular vote for Congress by 6.83%. A 7% victory isn’t just a win--it’s a thumping, a shellacking, or some such catch-phrase.

That’s why it’s worth noting that, in the mere 75 days since the 2010 elections, Democrats have gained 7% on Republicans nationally. In so doing, they have already erased the Republican advantage ahead of the 2012 elections.

Here are two graphs of the trend in President Obama’s job approval ratings since November 2nd, both from Pollster.com. The first includes polls from Rasmussen Reports, while the second does not. Neither graph includes Zogby polls that were taken online:

More at the link --

[Tippy]

1. K&R....Can you imagin what the 2010 Election would have looked like if the.

TeaPary had not been as part of it....for that wecan blame the Palen, and Beck of the world...

[Donnachaidh]

2. actually, I think the Tea Party nutjobs that got voted in will actually help the Dems in 2012

They've got two years to crap in the punchbowl. that's two years of pissing off the people who voted them in, by falling into lockstep with the pukes.

[Tippy]

4. You are right on....

[iamtechus]

3. The advantage will disappear immediately if dems mess with social security. (nt)

[kelly1mm]

5. Too bad there are no general elections for another 22 months. nt

[GSLevel9]

6. polling is not static... talk to me in November, 2012. nt

[KharmaTrain]

7. The "Independent" Game

What we saw last year was a change in "independents". In '06 & '08 many of those were moderate and pissed off rushpublicans; people who voted for booooosh in '04 and the GOTB for Congress but were fed up due to scandals and ineptness. I saw this when I was canvassing...the list of registered rushpublicans shrunk as the independents grew. Then after President Obama's election and Democratic control of both houses, the independents began to swing the other way...folks who had voted for Obama and Democrats in '08 and were pissed off last year. Many former "independents" who were rushpublicans went home and were replaced by dissatisfied Democrats. Call it the yin-yang...and now maybe its swinging back in the other direction.

[old mark]

8. All we have to do now is actually VOTE!!!! Here in PA, we have over 1 Million

more Dems than GOPers registered, yet the GOP took control of the state government, governorship and 1 senator, as well as several reps in Congress.

Great to have a lot of Dems...Sucks when they stay home.


mark

[Donnachaidh]

10. how many independants are in your state?

Just curious...

[old mark]

12. Not really that many-We have closed primaries-indies cannot vote except

in general elections.
Too many Democrats stayed home in November-the GOPers did not.

mark

[w4rma]

9. When the DLCers start talking about what they want to do, it will disappear again.

Watch what happens when the DLCers start talking about reducing social security. Or if they decide to talk about gun control. Or if they decide that more banks need to be bailed out.

[upi402]

11. Issa's investigations will bump it but DLC with undo that. n/t