Are we reaching ‘peak car’?

[Newsjock]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/are-we-reaching-peak-car/article2210139/

Anyone who has been stuck in big-city gridlock lately may find this hard to believe, but millions of Westerners are giving up their cars.

Experts say our love affair with the automobile is ending, and that could change much more than how we get around – it presents both an opportunity and an imperative to rethink how we build cities, how governments budget and even the contours of the political landscape.

The most detailed picture of the trend comes from the United States, where the distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998.

... Indeed, the shift is so gradual and widespread that it's clearly not a product of any “war on the car” or other ideological campaign. Rather, it's a byproduct of a stage of development that cities were probably destined to reach ever since the dawn of the automobile age: Finding themselves caught in an uncomfortable tangle of urban sprawl, population growth and plain individual inconvenience, people, one by one, are just quietly opting out.

[liberal N proud]

1. It is becoming cost prohibitive for many

Between unemployment and underemployment and the cost of buying, maintaining and operating a vehicle has become too costly for many.

[Fumesucker]

4. Indeed, I was just talking today with a tech minded friend about the advantages of an electric bike.

For use as a "grocery getter"..

No tag, no license, no insurance, no gasoline, minimal upkeep, take it indoors if necessary.

They are *almost* ready for prime time in the USA, there's a ton of cheap, crappy quality ones and a few high priced high quality bikes but very little in the midrange of the price/quality spread.

Here's my grocery getter, strictly pedal powered at the moment but I'm working on that.. I can easily carry a week's groceries for two people in the trailer. The bike looks heavy but it's really no heavier than a midrange regular bicycle and far more comfortable for anyone with back or neck issues.



And here's the same model bike kitted out with an electric motor (right behind and underneath front sprocket) and battery (black box right behind motor).

[Delphinus]

7. I've thought about a

recumbant bike many a time, but the price is pretty steep. Nice to see how you have put that trailer on it - that would be the way to go (or something attached to the upright one I have now).

[WinkyDink]

13. So many women would love this in the rain! Esp. my aged mother!

*sarcasm*

[Fumesucker]

15. Eh, I'm sixtysomething myself..

Hardly a spring chicken.

And there are *zero* bike paths or lanes where I live, it's ride in the street or stay home.

Also I don't recall advocating everyone else do as I'm doing, I just can't afford insurance, maintenance, gas and so forth..

I find it interesting that the most bicycle using nation in the developed world is a good bit wetter than most of the US.

[WinkyDink]

32. That would be me. My mother is 87.

[Fumesucker]

35. I've been unemployed for nearly three years now..

It took me a while to reach the point I would admit to myself that I'm unlikely to ever have another job working for someone else again.

For me at least the single overwhelming reason I needed a car was for commuting, I'm not commuting any more and not likely to be commuting, so I really don't need a car any more. Which of course is a damn good thing because I don't have the wherewithal for purchase, insurance, tags, gas, maintenance, tires and so forth.

Not having a schedule to meet means that I go shopping and do my other trips when the weather is not inclement, cold isn't a problem because I have a snowmobile type suit that will keep me warm and dry in ridiculously bad conditions. It's really hot and humid here in the summer so I do my summertime trips right after dawn before the heat gets too bad.

Unless you really and truly need it, a car is nothing more than a white elephant that will drain a huge chunk of limited resources.

[AngryAmish]

39. tee hee

[tabatha]

2. I hope so.

One of the things I noticed in the Libyan war, perhaps because of the flatness, was the number of cars, even for such a small country - bumper to bumper.

At one time I used to drive in Los Angeles and hated it. That is over 10 years ago, and I cannot bear the thought of trying that again.

City planning should be such that cars are not necessary.

Thanks for the article. I ma beginning to find that the Globe and Mail has decent articles.

[reggie the dog]

25. when i lived in paris i did not own a car a did not miss having a car

if i ever move back to a city i will get rid of the car again, i live in the country and have to drive 20 miles one way to the town i teach in, which changes every year, last year it was only 5 miles. i ride my bike for fitness, many days a week and often use it to go visit friends who live 15 miles away or so one way. my next buy will be the clip on head light and flashing taillight so that i can go down into the nearby town and visit friends and be safe coming home after dark.

[wtmusic]

3. Never.

It's not a coincidence that driving peaked at the dawn of the Internet age. A lot more work is done from home. A lot more work is done without personal meetings.

But public transportation will never replace the segment that makes driving necessary, and the freedom it offers.

[Gregorian]

19. Absolutely. Not to mention how easy it makes life.

And by "easy", I mean lazy. And sick. And polluted.

Bikes rule. But the very mention of it is treasonous. Just tell people gas is going up in price, and you have panic. Land of the brave, my ass. Land of the weak is more like it.

I'd prefer to work my ass off and be happy and healthy than die in a land of cars.

Can you tell I've evolved? Don't get me started on music.

[TheWraith]

21. Gosh, I'm just so awestruck by your enlightened self-rightousness!

Everything you say is just so true! The only reason for cars is because people are lazy assholes! After all, EVERYONE has the option of biking to work all the time. Even if they live thirty miles away. Or if they're too old. Or physically disabled. And if they can't, or they live somewhere where bikes aren't safe or practical, fuck them, right? They're just lazy people who are weak and don't want to work hard. :sarcasm: :puke:

[Gregorian]

27. Angry?

I must have hit a nerve. Maybe I have to explain that I'm not for elimination of all cars. There is an obvious overuse of the car that is flagrant and idiotic.

[wtmusic]

38. Let's differentiate between those who don't share your values, and idiots.

I believe the point you're trying to make is that many people could ride a bike to accomplish what they do now with a car. That may be true, but some people don't want to do it. I ride a bike a lot by most standards (about 4K miles/year) but I hardly ever do it to run errands. It takes longer even for short errands, and because I'm self-employed that translates to money I lose. Some may consider it flagrant that I don't make that sacrifice for the environment - but on that limited scale I'm going to do it anyway, as are all but a very small percentage like me. And there are a lot of people who really can't do it - who live in worse weather or who are not in the physical condition to be able to. For them driving is a practical and smart decision.

Where does that leave the non-idiots? They can:

1) Stamp their foot at society's lack of concern for the environment, while everyone ignores them.
2) Try to legislate "concern" by making driving less practical (increase gas taxes, etc). I support this option, but only to a point. It can backfire. It tends to hit the poorest people hardest and piss off a lot of people who may be idiots but also vote.
3) Provide choices which allow people to reduce the environmental impact of their driving with limited sacrifices of convenience or money.

Which options are ultimately best for the environment?

[MicaelS]

44. Get back to us when you're 60 years old

And have bad knees or hips. We will definitely want to hear about your glorious trips on your bicycle. :sarcasm:

[bhikkhu]

5. I find so much more freedom bicycling to work and errands...

my "peak car" point was about 4 years ago, when my wife and I had 5 cars between us. I'd just given up a bit of the garden to make a new parking spot for another car I didn't even want, but somehow it was attached to a vague mental fear of poverty, I think...anyway, after thinking about it awhile and talking some sense into myself, and addressing some health issues, I started cycling to work.

I have to say, it took a couple of weeks, but the world became a better place - I can't imagine going back to the daily-driving grind again. I don't even like cars anymore, though I'm a mechanic...they take and take, and lead more people into poverty than anything else, I think.

[taterguy]

8. Must be nice to live in a place where it never rains

[bhikkhu]

17. It snows more than it rains

...what I find generally is that the weather always looks so much more intimidating when you are sitting inside some climate controlled space; once out in it and covering ground, its not bad at all - often its fun, and a great feeling usually.

If it rains, that's not much fun, and I change clothes when I get to work. Cycling in the snow, however, is so much nicer than anything else, as long as you can avoid the busy streets and the packed-down polished tracks the cars make.

I'm fortunate in that most of the 6 mile trip to work is on a bike trail, and there isn't anyplace in town farther away than that.

[taterguy]

37. Dude, only a $40K + vehicle provides proper protection from the elements

GM says it.

I believe it.

That settles it.

[SammyWinstonJack]

40. The last thing I want to be doing when it's 100+ temps with high humidity, is ride a bike any

distance. And in Tx, for about 3 mos. those temps are average. Heat stroke isn't fun.

[WinkyDink]

14. I presume your wife also bikes to her work and errands? And that neither of you need to use a

highway, or carry papers/books, or wear "business clothes," or carry a purse/briefcase, or have less than perfect balance, or fear trucks?

[bhikkhu]

18. Its really not so hard at all

I wear my work clothes usually, and I have a change of clothes at work if I need them. I carry a messenger bag almost always, with extra clothes, my lunch if I'm heading in to work, and whatever else. Our city is about 60k people, and just about everyplace of it is accessible by two bike lanes and a mile of reasonably safe street.

Lots of things seem inconceivable and dangerous until you do them every day! I think cycling in San Francisco would be extremely challenging, for instance, but when I was there last summer there were so many cyclists...

We still have one car that we keep up. I drive it once a week for the main grocery run, and my wife usually drives on weekdays dropping off and picking up kids, and to her work. Its all nearby, so gas expenses are about $50 a month.

[TheWraith]

22. Good for you. And please recognize your situation is COMPLETELY atypical.

Most people in the US do not live in a place where they're never more than 6 miles from where they need to be, let alone where biking everywhere would be remotely safe.

[bhikkhu]

24. True enough

I know part of it is by design - I moved my family here by choice a few years ago, because of the local qualities - and part of it is very good fortune.

on edit - but if I do have a point to make, its that it didn't occur to me for a few years to even try cycling instead of driving, or that it was even a possible option. When I finally did try it, it worked perfectly and solved some long-lingering problems very well. Our standard of living has definitely increased because of cost savings, and I am happier and healthier.

[reggie the dog]

26. many people in europe do however

but i deem it too dangerous to pull my 3 year old along behind my bicycle here in france so i do drive when i have her, it is 2.5 miles to her school. the weeks she stays at her moms they walk 5 minutes to pre school. when i lived in the center of town where she and her mother still live i did all my shopping on foot and just carried the bags in my arms or had a wheeled cart like lots of older women use to do their shopping. but in europe our towns are more densly populated so it is not as far to get to the shops and back.

when i was in the suburbs this year it was easier to walk 10 minutes and get a 25 minute bus ride then change to the el, take it 35 minutes, get off and change to another bus and ride it 20 mintues to get to north avenue beach than it would have been to drive. i could play with her, look at the scenery, then walk around downtown for an hour or 2 after the beach and catch an el to a bus and a 10 minute walk home in the hot sun. not too much activity, enough to keep us in shape but not more than many elderly people do in europe every day.

[WinkyDink]

33. And I have visited Europe enough to know how superior your public transit is.

[reggie the dog]

36. and we are more poor per capita than people are in the usa

so all that we have in Europe you could have in higher quality in the usa, it is just a question of spending priorities

[Kurmudgeon]

6. We reached peak stage coach, peak Conestoga wagon, time marches on....

[canoeist52]

9. Lower distance travelled does not equal giving up autos.

..."distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998."

Cars are sitting in the driveway more. We are all driving less because of the high cost of fuel. Period.

[IDemo]

10. Your first sentence describes a post-peak era perfectly

"Peak" doesn't mean "end" - whether it's running out of oil or the disappearance of autos. It means an item has passed its maximum point of availability or economic utility and is in a state of decline.

[eppur_se_muova]

31. Americans **with jobs** are actually commuting more ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15207973

... so the falling average is, indeed, most likely due to (1)fewer people working, and (2)people using their cars less for optional trips, to save money.

[FarCenter]

11. State vehicle registrations declined between 2008 and 2009

See "Table 1096. State Motor Vehicle Registrations: 1990 to 2009" in http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1096.pdf

I think that this has continued as older vehicles are junked faster than new ones are bought. But bear in mind that older cars are likely to be driven relatively few miles per year.

The decrease in mileage is due primarily to the combination of recession austerity and debt reduction by consumers, coupled with the high prices of gasoline.

The price of motor fuels will continue to go up, since world crude production is stuck in a plateau at aroune 85 million barrels per day and since developing countries are competing for more of the supply.

This morning there was a "smart development" guy on TV making the case for smart development from an environmental standpoint.

This is no longer the right approach.

"Smart development" in terms of developing more compactly in already built up areas is absolutely required in order to have an affordable transportation system in the future.

[sammytko]

12. Maybe the baby boomers don't drive as much so don't trade in as much n/t

[NutmegYankee]

16. Peak auto in Big cities perhaps. In the countryside, not so much.

Here in Rural Connecticut (and a LOT of this state is rural, NOT suburban) cars and trucks are necessities. Gridlock here is three cars waiting at a traffic light.

[ThoughtCriminal]

20. My God!

It's Full of Cars!

[ThomWV]

23. Probably not here and certainly not worldwide, China hasn't even got started yet.

[RegieRocker]

28. Yea right. Please come to St. Louis and convince others

to give up their cars so I don't have to deal with traffic jams. More than likely this data is from no money no job to own a car. Statistics sucks.

[Raine]

29. NO. nt

[Shagbark Hickory]

30. Still not much in the way of alternatives. nt

[mwooldri]

34. Not yet but my the miles I drive has reduced greatly.

Working at home, or telecommuting - this is coming on big time. The Call Center Industry is heading this way very quickly, since there's no need anymore to have big buildings with people to answer the phone when they can do it from home instead. If you want a job on the front lines as a call center rep, these days your best bet at getting work is to be an independent contractor and working from home.

[sarcasmo]

41. Three years without a car was relaxing. Living in the burbs now and a car is a must have.

[hunter]

42. I hope so.

Human bodies are optimized for walking.

We tend to break down when we don't.

I loathe cars. It's always a wonderful day when I don't have to drive somewhere.

[Marrah_G]

43. I would love to be able to get everywhere by public transportation

Unfortunately that's not possible with my job. The closest station is 5 miles away and no bus. I could go from home to a bus stop, bus to train, but that's where my trip would end. My second job is a couple miles but there might be a bus.

My own good news/bad news is that my minivan is on its last breath and is unfixable. My parents are selling me their 2008 Rondo and they are going to be the "bank" so no interest. of course it does mean another monthly bill, but I need reliable transportation.