Seoul has a new Mayor: A Bad Omen for the KorUS FTA

[rpannier]

Last night Independent candidate Park Won-soon won the Seoul mayoral race by a little over 7% of the vote turning control of Korea's largest city and (arguably) the 2nd most powerful elected office in Korea over to a man who opposes Lee Myung-bak's conservative national government.

Park's status is similar to the Bernie Sanders. Sen Sanders is not a member of the Democratic Party, but caucuses with them and is supportive of and supported by the Democratic Party.
Mayor Park is not a member of any political party, but earned the support of the United Opposition. The cornerstone of the United Opposition is their opposition to the Korean-US FTA (for a variety of reasons)

"How does this damage the FTA?" you may wonder.

First, it emboldens the Opposition Parties in the National Assembly. Seoul is a rather conservative city and the Mayor is often very influential in National Affairs.

Second, The GNP has held the Mayor's seat for quite sometime and having lost the seat to the opposition in a special election gives people opposed to the FTA, a very large bullhorn to make their case.

Third, next year we go to the polls to elect a new president and soon after (April 2013) a new National Assembly. The GNP (conservative party) is generally unpopular and the FTA is part of their problem. Several first term members of the GNP in the assembly and those members from marginal districts have said that if the FTA turns into an ugly mess they will not support ramming it through.
This could further delay the vote. Especially considering Korea's Podium Rule.

Fourth, people in Seoul generally support FTA's. They bring in big money into the city. The young (20's-40's) oppose this agreement and voted accordingly.

Fifth, in the wings is the widely popular Dr. Ahn (a tech guru of sorts) who is most likely going to run for President of Korea in 2012 as a member of the Korean Democratic Party. While he has not stated his opposition to Free-Trade, he has voiced concerns about the Constitutionality of this FTA.

So, will the FTA agreement pass?
Most likely. The GNP has a huge majority in the National Assembly.
But it will most likely be after a major fight.
However, when the new government comes in (if it's from the opposition) then they will most likely vote it out and insist on new negotiations.

Stay tuned