Virginia elections may be a warning sign for Obama

[onehandle]

Source: Washington Post

Tuesday’s legislative elections in Virginia appeared likely to add more evidence — as if national Democrats needed it — that the terrain of the political map will be significantly more rugged for President Obama next year.

It is difficult to draw a bright trend line from an election in which fewer than one-third of those registered voted. When turnout is as light as it was on Tuesday, those who do show up tend to be the most dogged partisans.

But analysts and political strategists of both parties said the expected Republican gains — even if less than was expected — underscored the need for the president to reinvigorate his supporters and close what is becoming known as the “enthusiasm gap” between the two parties.

“The enthusiasm gap has been completely reversed in the state. Republicans have it. Democrats don’t,” said political scientist Bob Holsworth, a former professor at Virginia Commonwealth University who now runs a Web site called Virginia Tomorrow.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/virginia-elections-may-be-a-warning-sign-for-obama/2011/11/08/gIQANhxg3M_story.html?hpid=z1

---

Going to come down to Ohio and Florida in 2012, like usual.

[ingac70]

1. Is everyone forgetting all the other states that went blue?

2004:



2008:

[onehandle]

2. He's not going to win Indiana or North Carolina this time around.

Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania are the states to watch.

[ingac70]

3. He'll win Ohio and Pennsylvania...

and if he's got Ohio, Florida won't even matter.

[AlinPA]

9. I don't agree about PA. This state just elected a teabagger governor and US senator.

(Corbett and Toomey)

[JoePhilly]

11. Pitt and Philly will carry the load in PA, always do.

[Papagoose]

25. Not in 2010 though...let's hope for better in PA in 2012

It will hurt me deeply to see my home state, which i miss every day I wake up, turn red.

[JoePhilly]

34. PA has always been Pitt to the west, Philly to the east, and Alabama in between.

[AlinPA]

39. In Pittsburgh itself, yes,but what's been happening around here is that the counties

around Pittsburgh are going more republican -teabagger (Butler, Westmoreland, Washngton, Fayette, even Cambria is more red, and others).

[truebrit71]

43. Still one of the best lines ever...

...

[onehandle]

36. I think so too, but he is vulnerable in the 'usual states.'

I am confident he will win the General, but it will be close.

[Demeter]

17. Michigan is doubtful

The GOP has a stranglehold on the state--but hasn't choked the life out--yet.

[marmar]

31. But Obama leads all challengers in Michigan polls. ........

....... and a Snyderbot got tossed Tuesday.

[Demeter]

55. One of many

AND Couldn't get enough signatures to recall Snyder.

[GoCubsGo]

54. Voters will remember how Romney wanted to let the auto industry die.

And, he is the likely nominee. The other candidates with any chance of winning also agree with him on that matter. The people of Michigan are not going to forget that. Nor, will they forget who saved it.

[Demeter]

56. Since I Live in Michigan

let me assure you, 80% of the state couldn't care less about the auto industry. There's a tremendous anti-reason, anti-science and technology, anti-christian (small-c), zenophobic, rednecked population in Michigan, and they are all that's left. The educated and employable have left in great numbers for anywhere else.

If you think the remnants can overcome the Bible Belt, you have an unrealistic set of expectations.

[FarLeftFist]

33. He'll win NC, also the D's won the VA elections.

[mmonk]

52. He and Romney are neck in neck in NC and he beats the rest

of the field in polling.

[Yupster]

42. Man I've got to

stop waking up with a hangover.

[FBaggins]

46. The landscape has changed somewhat since 2008.

Perhaps you noticed?

[ingac70]

66. I noticed low turnout elections in 2010 led to repuke victories. n/t

[FBaggins]

69. A simple "no" would have sufficed.

:)

The turnout in 2010 was actually higher than in 2006 and compared well to the last four decades or so.

What was down was turnout among Democrats who were disillusioned with the current administration. The VA results imply that this is still an issue (though perhaps not to the extent as 2010).

[ingac70]

70. I'm not overly concerned with VA....

It is the South.... as redneck a backwater as my state, TN.

[FBaggins]

74. Good thing they don't have any electoral college representation, right?

Oh wait...

[ParkieDem]

59. I could easily see a 269-269 split ...

Like this ...

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=dtu

That would be something ...

[hlthe2b]

4. Ugg.... The founding fathers from VA must just be rolling in their graves...

at the ignorance and regression.

[Blue_Tires]

16. You wouldn't believe how many people voted for a local freshman

because he swore he would repeal the healthcare reform act...Not a lot of voters know how congress works, do they?

[no_hypocrisy]

5. Democratic elections despite low turn-out in NJ is equally compelling in favor of Obama.

Not that he should take us for granted. He should make it a point to tour the state (north, central, south, east, and west) as often as his schedule permits.

[SkyDaddy7]

6. Don't expect the press to report that...

Only the stories they can make into a negative will be reported! The press tries so hard to impress FOX "News" & prove they are not bias toward Democrats...But FOX "News" will always label the MSM LIBERAL!

[auburngrad82]

21. You're right about that

The local news websites, for the first time that I can remember, are not listing party affiliation on the election results. I have no idea who belongs to what party in Wake County, but I think the Democrats probably cleaned up here, hence no mention of party.

[tcaudilllg]

72. No, they want jobs with Fox!

They have no integrity. It's the same reason congress is bought and sold: it's not about what job you have today...

[qanda]

7. Wouldn't the defeat of the two amendments in Ohio and Mississippi

Be more promising for Obama and Democrats. :shrug:

[dionysus]

27. yes, but on DU, we obsess on the negative....

[lbrtbell]

32. No, we're concerned about reality

If you're not worried about even the SLIGHTEST possibility of a batshit insane Republican in the White House, why are you here?

[dionysus]

41. i've been here for 10 years, and watched ppl do their best to turn DU into an anti-dem board, and

you're asking me why i'm here?

:rofl:

[DevonRex]

45. Reality? The reality is that we had many great victories last night yet

some asshole at WP decided to paint it as a negative. And some people here are buying it.

And Dionysus is an incredibly intelligent, insightful man who can see through the bullshit. He's been here since DU opened for business, rooting and working for Democrats.

[dionysus]

47. why, thank you madame... would you care for a truffle? fresh out of gold dust, but i may

have a packet of diamond sprinkles laying around the console somewhere...

:hi:

PS is your PM banner on the fritz again?

[DevonRex]

53. I'd like one please. And an energy drink.

Nah. I took a fall two days ago and I'm sore and cranky. And my right ring finger got the worst of it along with my left wrist. So it hurts to type and I'm just on my iPhone again. Not fun at all pecking away with thumbs and index fingers.

[dionysus]

57. oh no! hope you feel better soon! you didnt fall down a canyon did you?

:hug:

[DevonRex]

63. Yes I did.

My fault. We were hurrying so we could get out before the snow started. Luckily I didn't fall very far but catching onto the rocks is what hurt. And still does. Otoh I'm pretty happy at how it turned out :).

:hug:

[dionysus]

64. once trying to traverse an elk trail in boulder in the dark, did a double cactus hand plant.. who

knew there were little flat cactii all over the ground... wadsworth tanned my hide for that one!

[DevonRex]

65. Ouch!

If the cacti dont get you the Spanish Daggers will.

[dionysus]

67. so does almost falling off a cliff... never again will i hike without a trail...

[BumRushDaShow]

8. Fail.

They neglect to mention stats like Montgomery County, PA, the 3rd largest county in PA, going Democrat (Blue) for the 1st time in 140 years. They also missed the state of KY who *didn't* put in a repuke governor, which might have been a better barometer.

But then again, maybe they should hang their hats on these off-year election results with low turn-out... Then they can confidently sit back next year figuring they got it made! Yup. Go right ahead! I dare ya! :rofl:

[dionysus]

30. the fail brigade will be working overtime today, trying to dampen spirits after an excellent

election night...

[sufrommich]

40. +1. nt

[gkhouston]

10. Oh, look! The WP is reporting with Rove-colored glasses.

Color me unsurprised.

[pacalo]

20. +1.

[Hamlette]

68. +1000

the fall of the WP disappoints me the most considering how good the paper was during Watergate.

Can you imagine what would happen now? Woodward would have been promoted to keep him quiet with the agreement he never talk and Bernstein would have been fired.

Damn.

[SoCalDem]

12. Virginia & NC were abberrations in 2008.. He must win without them this time

This is how he wins

[leveymg]

18. By that reasoning, we lose any of the iffy states - MN, WI, PA, FL - GOP wins.

[SoCalDem]

19. but he also has an opportunity to win others I deliberately left off

:)

[leveymg]

24. What do you have in mind? ;-)

I love pleasant surprises.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

23. Half the population in those states and only 40 Senators to represent them. nt

[SoCalDem]

28. yep.. WY has 2 senators & 1 rep for about 500K in the whole state

SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Jan-27-04 11:33 AM


A lot of that "red" is vegetation, critters & rocks..

That's why this system sucks.. Places like Wyoming, Utah,& Idaho are disproportionately represented..

The EC was set up to favor states with large estates, but low population.. (remember the 3/5 issue?)..

If the states were represented more fairly , California & New York & Texas would have more representatives..

Someone last week did the math.. IIRC, Wyo has one congressperson (Barbara Cubin) for the whole state.. population 409,703 (2002 estimate)...
ONE congressperson for 500,000..

California's estimated population is 36,500,000, and we have 53 congresspeople.. That's almost 700,000 per..

Using the same math as Wyoming, we should have 73...not 53 congresspeople..

Wyoming has the same number of senators as California too..

Fair ir Fair.. and what we have now...is NOT..

[Yupster]

44. Map looks good to me

Lots of targets for Obama to expand on his 271. Not many targets for GOP to win states you paint blue, if it's a close election.

[SoCalDem]

58. That's what I thought too..Here's a link to the site

It shows historical data for each state.
www.270towin.com

He "could" also win NV, NM, NH, and OH

[leveymg]

13. This is a continuation of a trend that goes back to 2009 in VA - declining turnout

tends to favor whichever side can mobilize its base. I pointed out exactly this same fact two years ago:

#
leveymg's Journal - Numbers in VA Debacle Show that Dem Turnout ...
journals.democraticunderground.com › Discuss › Journals › leveymgCached
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/leveymg/459
Nov 5, 2009 – The disastrous defeat of Democratic candidate Craig Deeds in the Virginia Governor's race was not a local thing. Not a flash in the pan, at all. ...
#


Obama and the national Dems haven't even begun to try to mobilize the progressive base by really standing up for the 99%, and I doubt they can given how beholden they are to Wall Street and the One Percent.

By going center-right on so many issues, they've thrown away an historical opportunity akin to FDR and the New Deal era to push real progressive programs and solidify Democratic political control in America - they sold out traditional liberal ideas, and turned us, the real party base, off. As the WaPo finally recognizes, it shows in VA.

[Blue_Tires]

14. Republicans don't have any big enthusiasm boost here

It's just that the state has been trotting out the SAME milquetoast GOP-lite candidates for years now...

Dust off Howard Dean's 50-state strategy and get some real liberals to run for office here (hell, I may do it myself someday...)

[leveymg]

22. There are plenty of solid Deep Blue Dems in NoVA. We're well served by

our Congressmen, State Senators, Delegates, Councilpeople, School Board Members in Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax Cos. We did pretty well last night here. Turnout was really light here, and even lighter in urban Richmond and Roanoke. As you back to Old Dixie in the center and west of the state, and into the giant Aircraft Carrier in the Tidewater is where we have problems.

[Blue_Tires]

26. all I could really vote for yesterday was city council (Va. Beach)

in a couple of state house races the GOP candidates were running unopposed...I should have written my own name in...

[leveymg]

29. It really is two different States. You have the nicer sand, though. ;-)

[Demeter]

15. The Latest in a Series that Started before Inauguration

and it's too late now. The die is cast.

[justiceischeap]

35. Does Obama still have the African-American vote?

Because if he does, then I think they will turn out just as strongly for him in 2012 as they did in 2008. He also has the Latino vote. I can't imagine the majority of Latino's going out and voting for people who want to build an electrified fence that would kill people attempting to cross the border.

[leveymg]

37. Those who turn out will - but, that's the rub. Traditionally disenfranchized VA voters

came out to the polls in record numbers in 2008. Not nearly so many, since.

[onehandle]

38. African-Americans and Latinos, not to mention the poor and elderly are being targeted...

...for voter suppression from coast to coast.

It's going to be white, middle-class swing voters who will pick our next President.

[Safetykitten]

48. Warning schmorning...look...a balloon!

[dionysus]

49. still predicting that landslide defeat, eh?

:rofl:

[Safetykitten]

50. Actually, yes.

[FBaggins]

51. The author ignores that VA didn't have legislative elections last year

People pay attention to our House/Senate losses last November (and they should), but many don't realize how absolutely slaughtered we were at the state legislative level.

While the VA results are both painful and the most significant election yesterday... they still represent Democrats outperforming where we were a year ago. Here in NC, for instance, we went from a 30-20 lead in the state senate to 31-19 against. In Va last night we apparently lost control of the Senate, but by the narrowest margins. If the "wave" of 2010 were still at full strength, it would have been a bloodbath.

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. I love me some spin.

[kentuck]

61. If the Governor of Virginia...?

starts acting like Kasich and Walker, then the people could swing against them very quickly. It will depend on how stupid the Governor might be in over-reaching with his power.

[spanone]

62. and i'm sure there's a rosy scenario for the insane puke candidates???

[tcaudilllg]

71. WHY?

Because the Democrats didn't support OWS. THIS is what they get: DEFEAT. Now some of the democrats are idiots -- they may even be conservatives at heart -- and we need to identify them and select people who will be downright vicious to run against them. Like Gore did against Bill Bradley.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

73. Still too fucking early!!!! n/t