The Future of the Obama Coalition

[TomClash]

November 27, 2011, 11:34 PM
The Future of the Obama Coalition
By THOMAS B. EDSALL

For decades, Democrats have suffered continuous and increasingly severe losses among white voters. But preparations by Democratic operatives for the 2012 election make it clear for the first time that the party will explicitly abandon the white working class.

All pretence of trying to win a majority of the white working class has been effectively jettisoned in favor of cementing a center-left coalition made up, on the one hand, of voters who have gotten ahead on the basis of educational attainment — professors, artists, designers, editors, human resources managers, lawyers, librarians, social workers, teachers and therapists — and a second, substantial constituency of lower-income voters who are disproportionately African-American and Hispanic.

It is instructive to trace the evolution of a political strategy based on securing this coalition in the writings and comments, over time, of such Democratic analysts as Stanley Greenberg and Ruy Teixeira. Both men were initially determined to win back the white working-class majority, but both currently advocate a revised Democratic alliance in which whites without college degrees are effectively replaced by well-educated socially liberal whites in alliance with the growing ranks of less affluent minority voters, especially Hispanics.

The 2012 approach treats white voters without college degrees as an unattainable cohort. The Democratic goal with these voters is to keep Republican winning margins to manageable levels, in the 12 to 15 percent range, as opposed to the 30-point margin of 2010 — a level at which even solid wins among minorities and other constituencies are not enough to produce Democratic victories.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/the-future-of-the-obama-coalition/?hp

[Skittles]

1. fucking dismal

[JCMach1]

2. The party has completely dumped Dean's strategy that won us the Congress and the WH

Damn it!

[bigtree]

23. what, specifically, in the Dean strategy relates to attracting white voters?

And, where do you believe the Obama campaign has abandoned white voters?

[JCMach1]

31. the 50 state strategy didn't give up on any group, or region

that's why it was so successful...

[LuvNewcastle]

3. Either the Democrats have some incredibly

stupid strategists or there are highly placed people in the Democratic Party whose sole aim is to sabotage the party from within. I don't think they're that stupid.

[xchrom]

4. recommend

[napoleon_in_rags]

5. Ooh, the party of affluent human resource managers!

Screw that, no narrative. I say put science first, as the outcome of education, which the working classes are trying to achieve they just need a break, and the affluent have achieved. Knowledge equals power. That automatically weeds out the dumbass cohort, who simply thinks their guns tell them everything they need to know, but is inclusive to working class people of all races and genders trying to improve themselves. The party of striving for self betterment, I like that.

[Laelth]

6. Interesting. k&r n/t

-Laelth

[eridani]

7. The Obama coalition ought to be the 99% n/t

[babylonsister]

8. Abandoned? Really? This presumes we don't think for

ourselves and vote for our best interests v. what hannity tells us.

[pacalo]

9. "In the U.S, Teixeira noted, “the Republican Party has become the party of the white working class."

Moving on...

[unblock]

11. right - the white working class has become duped into thinking the republicans party represents them

[JoePhilly]

12. That line made me laugh as well ... that line should say ...

“the Republican Party has become the party of the gun totting, gay bashing, God fearing, white working class. A cohort who thinks that Obama is a socialist Marxist Fascist racist who was born in Kenyandanesia."

This is the group that Obama has rightly "abandoned" from an electoral perspective.

[TBF]

14. They are right. I don't know how the republican party did it (marketing miracle...)

they not only killed the unions, but at the same time convinced folks that they should vote for the party of capital (when most of these folks were former union or small business owners like farmers). Somehow they convinced them that "personal values" were more important than their finances, and this started with Reagan so it's been ingrained for a couple of generations.

I have family members in the midwest who are like this - low income, high school graduates, who buy into the whole country music, church, family values, "conservative" lifestyle. It is baffling to watch.

I don't think it really has much to do with "voting" however. It was more to create two camps - that will fight incessantly and ignore that they are being robbed blind by capital on a global level. We are not going back to the Ozzie and Harriet days here - the middle class is finished. At some point folks will wake up and realize this, and that is when the revolution will come.

[unblock]

10. did i miss it? where in the article does it say they're "abandoning" the white working class

the article says obama's strategists recognize that the trend among white working class voters has been increasingly republican.

that's a very different statement than saying they've abandoning them. it's saying republicans have been working very hard and very effectively on that constituency and that obama is going to have to have better numbers with other constituency AND avoid a "complete meltdown" among white working class voters.

i read that as saying that their still fighting on all fronts, but recognizing that republicans are winning with this particular constituency, so they're playing defence here and offence elsewhere.

that's not at all the same thing as "abandoning" them.

[TBF]

13. lol - you might actually read the article

For decades, Democrats have suffered continuous and increasingly severe losses among white voters. But preparations by Democratic operatives for the 2012 election make it clear for the first time that the party will explicitly abandon the white working class.

[pacalo]

17. This reads like it came from Fixed News writers. He didn't use the "some people say" FN platitude,

but he failed to mention who those "Democratic operatives for the 2012 election" are who "made it clear" that the party will abandon the white working class.

This reads like a propaganda hit piece.

[unblock]

18. this is the writer's conclusion / disinformation. i want an actual quote or evidence.

especially when they do have a quote saying they want to avoid catasrophic losses among the white working class.

that's a quote explicitly saying they're NOT abandoning that particular demographic.



or is the idea that, hey, you saw it on the intertubes, so it most be gospel?

"you might actually read the article". har har. my earlier post made it obvious that i did.
you might give critical analysis a try when reading articles, or other peoples' posts, for that matter.

[TBF]

24. What do you not understand about someone writing a piece on the Op-Ed page ...

of course it's an opinion - that's the point.

[ThomWV]

15. Obama Coalition? What in hell is that? Just who is it he has collated?

Right wing talking points . Be afraid white people, Obama is abandoning you.

Just more horseshit. Always, more horseshit.

[LWolf]

16. What coalition?

The very fact that an Obama coalition would be labeled "center-left" points out the bias in this piece.

That coalition includes teachers? Somebody ought to tell us teachers that Obama is counting on us then. He hasn't exactly been friendly. If this is how he treats the voters he needs to win, he's in trouble.

I haven't read Edsall before. I haven't missed anything.

[libinnyandia]

19. If a person votes Republican against their own best interests its

hard to feel sorry for them when the Republicans destroys him or her. Ignorance and prejudice have consequences. I do feel sorry for those who vote intelligently and find their neighbors around them vote for the GOP and blame Obama for everything bad that happens. It is tough living in an area that loves Michele Bachmann and think she is the best hope for America. She was at a book signing nearby the other day.

[bigtree]

20. bullshit

Edsall's trying to stir something up. No way the Obama campaign is 'writing off the white vote. Idiot doesn't even provide one 'operative' to say this directly because it's pure bullshit.

I'll tell you what, though, the Obama campaign's unprecedented outreach organization has been remarkably effective in registering and motivating folks who had traditionally shied away from the polls. This is just the same nonsense that the reports of minorities taking over the workplace engenders. The empowerment and participation of more minorities doesn't necessarily (or otherwise) mean a diminution of white voters. I expect Edsall and others to repeat this as often as it takes for this to become a conservative mantra, though.

[Tatiana]

21. There is some truth to this. We've abandoned the people the party (under Dean) was reaching out to.

It's been clear to me that the Party is no longer reaching out for those people. Some of it is just the President's inability to communicate with that segment of the population ("clinging to their guns" ... I knew what he meant, but it did come across as snooty and tone-deaf).

And I say this as a working-class African-American/Latina. Working-class whites should be part of our coalition (think "union"). We're really all in this together. It's us against the oligarchs. The middle class is ever-shrinking and if we don't start joining together on the basis of economic survival, we're going to lose this war.

[bigtree]

22. you cite the one comment

What other evidence are you looking at that would suggest the campaign is 'abandoning' whites?

[Tatiana]

28. It happened in Wisconsin.

Similarly, the White House mostly has sought to stay out of the fray in Madison, Wis., and other state capitals where Republican governors are battling public employee unions and Democratic lawmakers over collective bargaining rights. When West Wing officials discovered that the Democratic National Committee had mobilized Mr. Obama’s national network to support the protests, they angrily reined in the staff at the party headquarters.

Administration officials said they saw the events beyond Washington as distractions from the optimistic “win the future” message that Mr. Obama introduced in his State of the Union address, in which he exhorted the country to increase spending for some programs even as it cuts others so that America can “out-innovate and out-educate” its global rivals.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/us/politics/04staff.html?_r=4&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1322495734-DZqcOZ+ohzbD8YHvpOjfpA

That is the epitome of tone deaf. The DNC has the right idea to mobilize support for the Wisconsin (mostly white) working-class workers and the WH "angrily" tells them to cut it out.

The South isn't the only area where we are losing the white working class to the insane Republicans. We could potentially lose a good chunk of the midwest if we don't kick it into gear as a party and political organization.

I'm convinced the President is surrounded by idiots and he's really not as smart as I thought. He's ambitious, gives good speeches, but isn't as assertive on policy that impacts the poor and working class as a non-DLC/Third Way Democratic leader should be.

[bigtree]

29. I see the President has met the battle over collective bargaining rights in Ohio

. . . and he did publicly back the pro-union protests in Wisconsin earlier in the year. To me, he only backed off of that fight when it was won, not wanting to rub it in for voters who may have held a different position (mostly white males).


this from WaPo: (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/17/AR2011021705494_pf.html)

"Obama joins Wisconsin's budget battle, opposing Republican anti-union bill,” Feb. 18, 2011

Obama accused Scott Walker, the state's new Republican governor, of unleashing an "assault" on unions in pushing emergency legislation that would change future collective-bargaining agreements that affect most public employees, including teachers.

The president's political machine worked in close coordination Thursday with state and national union officials to get thousands of protesters to gather in Madison and to plan similar demonstrations in other state capitals.

"Some of what I've heard coming out of Wisconsin, where they're just making it harder for public employees to collectively bargain generally, seems like more of an assault on unions," Obama told a reporter during a White House sit-down. "I think everybody's got to make some adjustments, but I think it's also important to recognize that public employees make enormous contributions to our states and our citizens."

[Romulox]

25. This is the Democrat's "Southern Strategy".

Fucking tragic.

[TomClash]

26. There is an inconsistency in the article

How can the Obama campaign be abandoning the white working class if they are working "to keep Republican winning margins to manageable levels" among white working class voters?

[Romulox]

27. The concept of "triage" may be instructive.

Triage ( /ˈtriːɑːʒ/ (UK English) or triːˈɑːʒ (US English)) is the process of determining the priority of patients' treatments based on the severity of their condition. This rations patient treatment efficiently when resources are insufficient for all to be treated immediately.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage

[TomClash]

30. Except . . .

The Obama Campaign will collect $1 billion for his re-election, applied to the general election only. Insufficient resources would not appear to be the problem.