These taxcuts will expire after President Obama is re-elected?

[kentuck]

Does anyone have any doubt, any doubt at all, that he will not let them expire? That he will extend them once again?

[mmonk]

1. The Democrats have to have something to run on in 2012.

[Bandit]

22. Just like they ran on them in 2010

:shrug: I am not sure Obama will be re-elected if he indeed runs for a second term but if he does you can be assured these tax cuts will become permanent..

[somone]

2. Hope springs eternal in the corporate breast

Abandon hope, all others

[JoePhilly]

3. If he wins reelection, there is no reason for him to extend them.

He can't run again.

If he lets them expire now, the media will say that he broke his promise to 95% of all Americans by letting the taxes on those making under $250k increase. This is the promise that drives the ENTIRE compromise. If Obama breaks that promise, that will be called his "read my lips, no new taxes" moment. And the media will run clips of Obama and clips of GHW Bush making and breaking that promise. Over and Over and Over.

There is a reason that the majority of Ameircans support this compromise bill, and the reason is the middle class tax cut. That is all most Americans care about. They don't care about the debt, about UE extensions, about rich getting to keep their tax break. None of that matters. Just their own personal bottom line.

After re-election, Obama will not have that promise hanging over his head as he does now. The GOP will have less leverage as a result.

[kentuck]

5. If he doesn't win...

The Republican will let them expire? We know the answer, don't we?

[JoePhilly]

8. Correct.

If he loses in 2012, the GOP will extend them permanently.

Of course, if he let them expire NOW, and then he loses in 2012, the GOP would simply REINSTATE THEM. After all, that will be why they won ... Obama would have broken the "no tax increase for those under $250k" promise", the GOP would run on that because it reinforces the "TAX AND SPEND DEMOCRATS" meme. And once in office, President Romney and the new GOP senate majority, and GOP House, will extend them for sure.

And so, if you want those taxes to end, your only hope is an Obama re-election.

[kentuck]

11. Yep. You have no choice.

There is no doubt, no doubt at all, that President Obama will let them expire. Is there?

[JoePhilly]

28. Where did I say there is NO DOUBT?

As I read back through the thread, I don't see any point at which I said there is NO DOUBT. So why put words in my mouth?

I notice that you did not take issue with a single point I actually made.

[kentuck]

35. JoePhilly...

Sorry, you took it the wrong way. I was trying to agree with you. I was using "You" in a generic sense. I did not disagree.

[JoePhilly]

36. Np ... and sorry I misunderstood your response.

[former9thward]

34. The GOP will have far more leverage.

These tax cuts expire after the election but the bill to extend them will come up in the summer of 2012, before the election. The GOP will control the House so they can bring up the bill anytime they want. We will hear the same arguments as we just heard and going into an election they will be extended forever because everyone will be afraid to do anything else.

[msongs]

4. he said he would let them expire this time and we know what value his words have nt

[JoePhilly]

10. He also promised to not raise taxes on the middle class ... which is

what happens without this deal.

Now think about it ... which of those promises does the average Americans care about??

This is why the majority of Americans support the compromise. They care about their own personal bottom line.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. I don't assume he's going to be re-elected.

I also don't assume that either house is going to be Democratic (or even "Democratic") in 2013.

That said, the tax breaks and the "payroll tax holiday" are here to stay. Goodbye SS, goodbye national infrastructure, goodbye social safety nets at all levels. Goodbye America as we knew her.

[Better Believe It]

7. Re-elected? This and the cuts in Social Security, Medicare, etc., that Obama will sign on to ....

next year will all but guarantee him a one-term presidency.

I don't think he'll run again.

It will be time for President Obama to cash in with his friends on Wall Street.

[somone]

16. One-termer, but he will be positively opulent

They reward the help very well on Wall Street

[jtown1123]

31. Yupp. He'll get a nice cushy job with Citi or Goldman

[indepat]

38. junior's ruinous policies, actions, and wars won him an approval rating in the teens

by the end of his reign, if my recollection is correct. BHO's ratification of most of junior's major ruinous policies, actions, and wars will win him an approval rating of ??? at about election time, should he run. :shrug:

[madrchsod]

9. no.

[TBF]

12. After he's "re-elected" - there's some magical thinking.

Honestly, without progressives and republicans, how does Mr. Obama secure a victory? He can't do it with DLC members alone.

[BlueJac]

13. He won't be re-elected......

the Republicans hate him, he is getting shut down by the justice system and will look like a fool while our economy keeps crashing. They will investigate his every move starting in January.

[kentuck]

14. That means the middle class will get to keep their taxcuts...

We will all pay for them in a million different ways, but they will get to keep them. And so will the wealthy.

[kentuck]

17. And the Republican slogan for the next election will be?

He promised to raise your taxes.

[BlueJac]

43. The tax cuts would of never been renewed...........

with a Republican president, FACT

[piratefish08]

15. RE-elected??

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Still a Democrat]

18. At a minimum, it gives him great leverage

It's something we got that's overlooked - there's a lot on angst on the other side because they are not permanent.

[phleshdef]

19. If unemployment is under 7% or better, middle class tax breaks and UI benefits are worth the gamble.

But if its not, then stuff like that isn't worth gambling. Hopefully the Democrats have taken back Congress with a vegeance and those things aren't an issue either way. But while the Republicans allied with a handful of conservadems have the power to block middle class assistance, it is what it is.

[niceypoo]

20. I can't believe the Bush tax cuts will be the central issue of 2012

[sad sally]

40. As of today these are the Obama tax cuts, just as it's Obama's wars.

He bought them both, now he owns them, especially since his Administration made it clear from day one that the Bush administration would never have to answer for anything - wrong wars, wrong bailouts, torture and rendition, spying on Americans...

[kentuck]

42. It's called .... bi-partisanship.

:-)

[unblock]

21. for those doubting re-election, lichtman's keys predict he'll win comfortably:

many of the things people get so caught up in just don't historically have an effect on the final outcome of the presidential election. obama would need something like a serious challenge to the nomination AND a third party candidate capable of getting at least 5% of the popular vote AND failing to recapture his 2008 campaign-level charisma. i don't see that happening.


http://www.gazette.net/stories/03262010/policol170803_32553.php

The 13 Keys to the White House: standings, March 2010

The Keys are stated to favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the other party wins.

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)

KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)

KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)

KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth

during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)

KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)

KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

True: 9 Keys; false: 4 Keys. Prediction: Incumbent Obama wins in 2012

[bowens43]

24. that's all fine and nice and everything.....

but he's still going need votes and he's not going to get enough of them....

[unblock]

25. you're welcome to dismiss it based on just your instinct, but the science says he will get the votes

lots of liberals are disappointed and will no doubt remain that way in 2012, as i expect to be myself.

but i'll look at the choice between obama and romney or palin or whatever catastrophe the republicans try to foist on us and i'll have to come out to vote for the democratic candidate. a lot of liberals will think that way.

a lot of right-wingers won't vote for obama, maybe they're even more opposed to him than in 2008, but he never had their votes anyway.

and a lot of people in the middle -- the "swing voters" who usually decide elections -- will be comfortable with him, see no great reason to change, see him as a centrist/moderate, and vote for him.



two years from now, renewing all the tax cuts (which amounts to no major change in the tax code) will NOT be seen as particularly controversial except by partisans (myself included), and the long-term damage to social security certainly won't show up by then.

[jtown1123]

32. I just think a lot of Dems won't vote. Therefore, he loses.

I cannot in good conscience vote for someone who will destroy Social Security. I just can't. I will vote for my congressman, senator and local officials.

[unblock]

33. the election happens whether you participate or not.

refusing to vote means you're indifferent between obama and the republican.

i'm equally pissed at obama for having a hand in jeopardizing social security, but having a republican as president is certainly no better for social security, and worse on a whole host of other issues.

hold your nose if you must, but please don't let a republican have an easier time of it.
in any event, that's what a lot of liberals will think.

[bowens43]

23. He probably won't be re-elected.

but if he is , of course he will 'extend' them.

[JoePhilly]

29. We know if he loses, the GOP President, and GOP House, and GOP Senate ...

will make them permanent.

If he wins in 2012, the tax cut issue no longer hangs over his head.

Obama promised to not raise taxes on those making under $250k. If he lets those expire, the media will crucify him to ensure that 95% of all Americans know that he raised their taxes and broke that promise. They will call it his "read my lips" moment ... and they will run clips of GWH Bush and Obama making that promise.

That's why the majority of Americans support the compromise. They care about their own, personal bottom line. Little else.

If Obama wins in 2012, he has no need to make this deal with the GOP. If he breaks the promise then, so what ... he can't run again. There really isn't much of a reason to negotiate with the GOP on this.

And again ... if he loses, the GOP President, who ran on extending the tax cuts for the rich, will do so, permanently.

[kentuck]

26. The Emperor has no clothes...

He lost them playing poker with the Republicans. Can someone please keep him away from negotiating anything ever again. He really sucks at it.

[sad sally]

41. Every compromise was surrender and invited new demands

[cbdo2007]

27. Of course he'll let them expire....but he won't say that during the election, he doesn't have to.

His "record" now is that he extended them. That will answer any questions about what he'll do because he'll just say "Look at my record..."

It will be his second term so it won't matter if he raises taxes next time. This is all a chess game and part of the strategy to get him reelected. If he had not extended them, they would peg him as a tax increaser. He had to keep taxes lower to get reelected and next time he'll let them expire with 4 years left in the next term.

You'll all see, this is a fairly brilliant strategy and really the only chance to win in 2012. Even Howard Dean would have extended the tax cuts this year, to get reelected in 2012. ANYONE would have, that's the politics game. Of course right now they'll say they wouldn't - but it's different when you're in the oval office and need to get reelected.

[JoePhilly]

30. Agree ... the key is this

As a canddiate, Obama said he would NOT raise taxes on those under $250k. If this compromise expires, he breaks that promise and gets crucified for it.

If he wins in 2012, that promise no longer hangs over his head.

[DailyGrind51]

37. The tax cuts will become permanent in 2012. deficit be damned!

[GeorgeGist]

39. Then they will not expire.