Let's Be Cautious About the Uprisings in the Middle East

[Yavin4]

Throughout history, what replaces the old regime is far, far, far worse. See Iran as an example.

[Enrique]

1. should we continue to support Mubarak? n/t

[Yavin4]

4. Egypt Under Mubarak Has Lived Up to the Camp David Accords

which has brought some semblance of peace in the Middle East. Is that worth supporting? Well, we have no idea who his successor(s) will be, so until we have a better idea, I'd say, yes, support him.

[wuushew]

18. Why would war return between Israel and the Arab states?

The Soviet Union is no longer around to gift massive amounts of military equipment to its clients.


Egyptian freedom > Israeli fear

[Yavin4]

37. Religious Fanaticism Knows No Logic

and needs no reason for war other than God commands it.

[wuushew]

45. Any war would not accomplish anything

Israel has overwhelming military superiority. At worst you would have two antignostic states that don't talk to each other.


Do you make similar hyperbolic predictions about other countries with Islamic political parties, say Turkey?

[eShirl]

2. even 1776?

[Yavin4]

6. There's More To History than 1776

Believe it or not.

[eShirl]

11. no kidding

there's more to history than your OP as well

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. Nevertheless, your OP said "throughout history". As a Brit, perhaps I should agree with you?

:evilgrin:

Seriously, your broad brush is hopelessly useless.

[Ozymanithrax]

3. Ahh, the Rudyard Kippling school of international policy.

Rudyard Kipling, The White Man's Burden (1899)

[Yavin4]

7. So, You Cheered when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Took Over Iran in 1979?

Gee, how did that turn out? Let's see:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zYKlSeIbrw

[barbiegeek]

21. Iran had a Leader (Iatola) , Egypt has no leader it's the people. USSR applies more that Iran

[Xithras]

34. USSR is an example of how badly a peoples revolution can go.

An uprising by the people, founded on the tenets of socialism, and usurped by authoritarian Bolsheviks who fostered in one of the largest genocides in human history. The revolutionary socialists didn't simply lose their fight to create a free state, they were exterminated by the government that they inadvertently helped to create.

Revolutions aren't neccesarily bad things, but they aren't something that should automatically be cheered either. Only time will tell whether these revolutions were beneficial.

[barbiegeek]

50. But Russian didn't pick a religious leader for Pres

[Ozymanithrax]

22. So that rebellion in 1776 was a bad idea...

How about the French Revolution.
How about the Revolutions of 1848 that created the modern nation states of Europe.
How about the Russian Revolution.
How about the Revolutions that swept through Africa, freeing all those benighted imperial colonies. The people should have realized that European power knew best.
How about Ireland and their civil war. If the only knew Britain knew best.
How about the Orange revolution that spread through the former soviet Republics from the Ukraine. They did not now how good they had it under the old dictators

Some revolutions turn out bad. Some good. But it is these peoples right to decide when they have had enough and determine their fate, not ours out of a sense of imperial paternalism to decide what freedom means to them.

[Yavin4]

30. How About The Khmer Rouge?

How about the Taliban?

[Ozymanithrax]

42. Some revolutions turn out bad...some good...

but who are we to deny these people the right to determine their own fate because it might be bad for us or evenf or them.

I don't have a crystal ball, or worm hole that takes me to the future. But I think we should support people that want to try to make someting better for themselves.

[Safetykitten]

5. Silly cautious talk! Like religious fanatics would take over. When would THAT ever happen?

You really have to get with the program.

[GliderGuider]

8. Let's rejoice in the uprisings in the Middle East

Finally the voices of the people are being heard, and with one voice they are shouting "Enough!"

Let whatever follows unfold of its own accord. Trust the will of the people. Fear of the future can only keep us frozen in the past.

[Yavin4]

10. Sorry, I'm Not Rejoicing

until I see what replaces the current government. This is frankly very troubling.

[snooper2]

14. Half the population in Egypt lives on less than $2.00 a day

that is what should trouble you

[Yavin4]

16. And If The New Leaders Are Religious Fanatics

hell bent on starting wars with other nations in the Middle East, then that should really trouble all humanity on this planet.

[snooper2]

33. I doubt that will happen, Egypt is a moderate educated society

We are not talking about 12th century Afghanistan here. Hopefully Saudi Arabia is next...

Maybe then Isreal will have to either pull back and enjoy what they have or face the consequences

[Yavin4]

38. So Was Iran in 1979. n/t

[GliderGuider]

48. This way at least there's a chance it will be replaced by something better.

Last week there was no chance at all. It may not turn out so well - so what? It wasn't going all that well before...

Every great change brings great opportunity. All the average man has ever asked for is an opportunity. Now they have one.

[arcane1]

9. "far, far, far worse" for who?

[Yavin4]

12. For the people in Egypt

For the people in the Middle East. For peace. For stability. For the world. For everyone.

You have no idea of what or who will assume leadership in Egypt. You're just caught up in some sort of romantic notions about revolution.

[arcane1]

17. You are making foolish baseless assumptions about me, for asking a question

But thanks for playing :eyes:

[Hissyspit]

19. Nonsense.

It's clear things go any number of ways. That's life. But quit rationalizing a torturing brutal dictatorship.

[Yavin4]

24. "That's life"? Wow.

You'd be happy with renewed wars between Israel and Egypt?

[Hissyspit]

35. CLEARLY

I was referring to the fact that things are often beyond anyone's control.

I didn't say anything about what I would be happy with or not. I'm not "romanticizing" anything, but reminding that for Egyptians things have unacceptable and an unsustainable situation for a long time, and you are glossing over the barbaric nature of the regime.

[uppityperson]

Indeed. Things don't always change for the better. We shall see what happens.

Not much I can do about it myself, but will be watching rather than just cheering whomever on for whatever. I don't know enough, but will be watching.

[H2O Man]

13. It isn't of

much significance what side we support or oppose right now. The US might be able to help some government leaders escape, if the violence continues to escalate.

Your point definitely has some validity: a violent uprising in the Middle East has, in recent times, often created an unstable state. On the other hand, it depends upon one's perspective if Iran is "far, far worse" today than under the Shah.

[Yavin4]

15. Under the Shah, Women Weren't Dragged Off The Streets for Not Wearing Head Scarves

correctly.

[H2O Man]

23. How do you

know that? And I ask respectfully.

[Yavin4]

27. See Link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zYKlSeIbrw

[H2O Man]

31. What I'm asking

is if you know this to be true, not if another person has said it is so. Iranian society has been fairly rigid, including under the Shah. He ruled in a rigid and oppressive fashion.

[Hannah Bell]

51. the poster is correct. the shah was a westernizer. his gov't didn't drag women off for not wearing

headscarves.

[Robb]

25. As anyone who has been in the middle of a riot or revolution will tell you...

...neither is particularly romantic.

Caution in forming an opinion is never a bad idea. Although it makes for boring discussion boards. :D

[tekisui]

26. Let the people speak, let the people decide.

Besides that, when you say "Let's", who are you referring to? Us? Americans? The US government?

[Yavin4]

28. Human Beings on Planet Earth

We already have too many nations in the Middle East being governed by religious fanatics.

[a la izquierda]

29. I'll mention something I know infinitely more about...

and it's not the Middle East. Back in 1910, there was a groundswell of support for change in Mexico. The rising star of this movment was Francisco Madero, a charismatic young guy who talked the talk to disparate groups...the Revolution began and quickly grew out of control, spurring former dictator Porfirio Diaz to quip: "Madero has unleashed a tiger; let's see if he can tame it." By 1913, Madero and his VP were dead, executed by an insane, power-hungry general, whose actions plunged the country into violent civil war.

This is not the scenario in Egypt, but it does illustrate how good intentions can go completely haywire when expanded from the micro to the macro.

[Yavin4]

36. What Really Scares Me Is That We've Had Decades of Peace bet. Israel and Egypt

Which is perhaps Jimmy Carter's most astounding accomplishment which has done more for peace in that region that any of us even know.

Will a new regime maintain the peace? We have no idea.

[H2O Man]

40. Good point.

A destabilized Egypt can create serious problems beyond its national borders. And the peace between Egypt and Israel has been the largest step towards reducing violence in the Middle East in the last century.

[eissa]

44. Not everything is about Israel

Geez, how infuriating must it be to the average protestor in Cairo, risking life and limb for the change they so desperately want, to hear freedom-lovin' Americans say they don't share their frustration for fear of what might happen to Israel. How about a little empathy for a repressed people tired of 30 years of dictatorship? Maybe, just maybe, this is about what Egyptians want, not us or Israel.

[eissa]

32. It's that kind of mentality that has kept the Arab population

under repressive rule. "It's us or the Islamists" so be happy with your oppression, rampant corruption, economic neglect, political incompetence, and torture. I'm also concerned about the religious fantatics unsurping what is mainly a working/middle class uprising, but I cannot in good conscience tell these people to continue to keep their mouths shut after 30 years of dictatorial rule. That's not what we stand for.

[Desertrose]

39. Not this time.......

[xchrom]

41. hogswallop. nt

[LostInAnomie]

43. Don't bother.

Too many on here subscribe to the Bush idea that democracy always results in a peaceful, open, human-rights lovin' society.

[denverbill]

46. I completely reject the suggestion that we should support dictatorships ever.

We imposed the Shah on Iran after overthrowing their democracy. We supported the Shah despite his brutal repression. We allowed him into the US for treatment rather than return him to his country to face his people.

How much different would Iran be today if we had NOT overthrown their democracy? Maybe they would be one of our close allies. Maybe theocracy wouldn't have gained a hold with people who yearned for freedom from a dictator.

By your logic, we should also oppose revolutions in Iran or North Korea today, because it 'could be worse'.

The people will always win out in the end. If the people of the world know that America always opposes dictatorship, they will be much more inclined to be our friends in the future when they eventually do win out.

[Yavin4]

47. I Said Be Cautious

And yes, a revolution in Iran or NK could indeed be much worse.

[LanternWaste]

49. Some cases yes, others no.

Some cases yes, others no.

The Revolutions of the 1850s were a mixed bag, the Gentle Revolutions of the Eastern Bloc States in 1989 resulted in the abolition of power by the Soviets, etc.