I'm not convinced the Mubarak government is about to fall at this point...

[cynatnite]

He seems to still have full support of the military. When that goes away, then we'll see a change, IMO.

[tekisui]

1. What are you watching?

I see the people and the military standing together. The military is respected by the people, and are protecting US/UK embassies and the museum. They aren't engaging the protesters at all.

I think the fact that the military came out and haven't fought the protesters tells more about where we are heading.

ETA: I think he's already gone.

[cynatnite]

6. I haven't seen anything to indicate that they're not supporting the government...

A change will only happen if the military leaders question their own ability to survive and the loyalty of their soldiers. Guarding museums and whatnot is no indication, IMO.

[tekisui]

8. The police and special forces have clearly been battleing the protesters

on Mubarak's orders. The military are not, not by any means.

If Mubarak wanted to shut the protests down, which he does, why is he not employing the military against the people?

I know that not fighting the protests is not proof that he has lost the military. But, the military acting as they are is not evidence that they are doing Mubarak's bidding, either.

[cynatnite]

17. I'm thinking that Mubarak is not an idiot...

Scattered bodies all over the streets of Cairo will most definitely make matters worse.

No government can survive without the support of the military. Not even ours. Mubarak needs the military to stay in power.

Of course, it could all change if the military leaders believe their survivability is at stake or if they lose the loyalty of their soldiers. They can always encourage Mubarak to leave Egypt and support a peaceful transition.

[snagglepuss]

15. I believe I just read in the Guardian that the military has not yet decided

who to back.

[MrCoffee]

20. The Egyptian military should be commended (up to this point)

This could have been much, much worse. So far, the military has tread the sanest course.

I hope they continue to do so.

[customerserviceguy]

23. So far, the orders are just to use water cannons and tear gas

Maybe you're too young to remember National Guardsmen firing on unarmed campus protesters, in a country with a democratic tradition...

[tekisui]

32. The military is NOT using water cannons or tear gas. That is my point.

The POLICE have been. The military is shaking hands with the protesters, with reports of confrontations with the police.

[customerserviceguy]

35. A difference without a distinction, in my estimation

Like I said, even in the societies with the greatest traditions of freedom, the bullets will overcome the flowers, if push comes to shove.

[tekisui]

37. You think the police can overcome the military?

I don't.

[customerserviceguy]

40. It's just a matter of time before the military gets their orders

They're waiting for the elites to get out of the way before the real fighting begins.

What makes you think that the military in Egypt is any better than the police there?

[tekisui]

41. The army is by conscription and is supported by the people.

The people don't fear the army, they make up the army.

[customerserviceguy]

42. We had a draft in this country

and that gave us National Guardsmen, drawn from the American people, willing to fire on unarmed students at Kent State.

Really, if you're not familiar with that incident, you should look it up. If you were reading the news during that time, like I was, you might not be so confident that the Egyptian military is going to join some "people's revolution", that may ultimately be headed by Islamic religious factions that will be cut off from US aid.

[tekisui]

43. I don't need your condescending attitude.

Maybe you should read up on Egyptian politics.

:eyes:

[customerserviceguy]

44. Ok, if you'll read up on American history

I don't know how old you are, but the events of the Vietnam era are ancient history to a lot of people here. They're not to me.

[justiceischeap]

2. It's hard to say if he actually does have the full support of the Army

There have been reports that the Army has actually protected the demonstrators from the police and that it's the special Presidential police that may be causing problems for the demonstrators, not the regular Army.

But you're right, if there isn't a definitive declaration by the regular Army, then this could go on for days.

[Atman]

3. The people in the streets of Cairo are CHEERING the military...

...and the military is waving back, being quite friendly. No police presence whatsoever, nearly five hours after curfew declared. It was just reported that top administration and business leaders have boarded a plane and left the country.

Where are you getting your info? It seems like the fall is becoming more likely by the moment, if it hasn't already happened.

[cynatnite]

7. I can see the government is treading carefully...

directly engaging the protesters in a violent way will only make things worse. The government knows it, too.

IMO, the military has to have a more direct involvment in order to get Mubarak out. None of that is happening.

[Catherina]

4. Please, please bet me! I was ready to wager yesterday

in fact I did but made the mistake of making a gentleperson's bet (hat tip to LeTazHot about the gender thing) when I should have taken out a derivative!


Please, please, bet me!

[cynatnite]

9. I've got 25 cents on my desk...

:)

Of course, all this could change and the military leaders suggest Mubarak leave for the good of Egypt.

No government can survive without the support of the military.

[Catherina]

14. Lol no. I want the title to your house, But I won't really take if lol n/t

[MineralMan]

5. Not enough information yet.

Once the dust settles, we'll have more and maybe be able to figure out where things stand. Right now, it's rumor central.

[tekisui]

10. Mubarak's gone. He has gone into hiding, and has likely fled.

He would have made his presence known by now if he had any power left.

[MineralMan]

16. Actually, that's speculation, not supported by verifiable

information. If he appears somewhere outside of Egypt, then it will be fact.

It could be true. It might not be true. We'll know soon enough.

[tekisui]

21. His government has fallen. It is strictly a formality about when he

admits it.

[MineralMan]

22. Again, evidence is not clear yet.

One day does not a revolution make. We shall see.

[tekisui]

26. 4 days, and months coming. Reports are coming out that he is on a plane

to Switzerland now.

BTW, the number of days matters not. It is whether the government can maintain control. Mubarak no longer can.

[MineralMan]

27. What reports? Links, please.

I hear that "reports" often don't pan out. So, solid information or it's just rumors.

[tekisui]

31. No link yet. Still unconfirmed, being reported on Israeli TV.

He's gone to Switzerland. The Egypt speaker of the house will be speaking soon.

[NoPasaran]

38. It was a quick trip, Mubarak is speaking on TV right now

Watching on CNN

[MineralMan]

46. Well, actually, he spoke himself, from Egypt.

Stories heard without substantial corroboration are often untrue. That's why sensible people wait to see what actually happens.

[Catherina]

51. I believe that was pre-recorded. Either way he's confirmed *missing* now per CNN

There were tweets coming from people close to the palace that he had prerecorded a statement.

[MineralMan]

48. False rumors, eh?

I don't like rumors. I like facts. The facts made a lie of the rumors - once again.

[tekisui]

50. Meh. He's still on his way out.

His days are numbered.

I have no way of knowing if he is still in Egypt or not.

[MineralMan]

47. I believe that Mubarak just spoke from Egypt. As I said, it's

best to wait to see what actually happens. Listening to rumors is often disappointing, eh?

[cynatnite]

19. Very true...

I wish we knew what the military leaders are doing right now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. 24-48 at most

Hosni is expected to speak soon pel al jazeera...of course that's a few hours ago. He put family on plane to points West three days ago.

[malaise]

12. Well the rumours from Al Jazeera are that he

may already have fled. Lots of elites have already flown out on their private jets.

[MrCoffee]

13. He's either gone already or desperately searching for somewhere to go

There is no Mubarak government anymore.

[WinkyDink]

18. You're a little late. Mubarak has fled the country.

[JuniperLea]

24. Has that been confirmed?

His wife was sent out days ago, and we're hearing of other "elites" leaving...

[tekisui]

28. Israeli Channel 10 is reporting he is on a plane to Switzerland.

Not confirmed, though.

[JuniperLea]

36. Thanks

Interesting times.

[MineralMan]

25. Link to your evidence of that, please...

I've not seen any evidence...just rumors.

[customerserviceguy]

29. He's had quite some time to entrench himself

Besides, many decades of US dollars being distributed have surely bought some loyalty.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

39. So who's that addressing the nation on Al Jazeera? nt

[cherokeeprogressive]

45. And you're just a little wrong. n/t

[tkmorris]

30. He is done

I have no idea how the situation in Egypt will shake out, but it is quite clear that they will no longer tolerate Mubarek as head of government. The best the current government could even hope to do is to influence who power is passed along to.

[tkmorris]

49. I may have jumped the gun

I thought Mubarek (sp?) was bound to see the writing on the wall and step aside. My assumption was that trying to remain as President would not be tolerated by the Egyptian people and that the unrest would only get worse if he tried. I further assumed that Mubarek would see that as I did, and not dare try to stay. I was obviously mistaken about that.

The question is however will the Egyptians accept such a situation? I believed that they would not. We will have to wait to see if I was right. If not, what wine goes with Crow?

[cynatnite]

33. Well, an important announcement is supposed to be coming up on Egypt TV...

I may be eating my words. :)

[roamer65]

53. delete

[independentpiney]

34. Speaker of Parliament about to make an important announcement

per al-Jazeera live stream.

[Quantess]

52. I'd say Mubarak is fired. Gone for good.

It's just my prediction.

[roamer65]

54. Porbably come the to US, just like the Shah of Iran.