Ok this is interesting... re egypt and security forces

[nadinbrzezinski]

Yesterday I went to Strafford, our open source intel. No did not pay the crazy prices... but... I just got an alert on this... so will post it... as is... link does not take you to the full report...

Watch Report: Unconfirmed Reports of Military, Police Clashing in Egypt

January 28, 2011

Unconfirmed reports from Al Jazeera on Jan. 28 say the army and police forces are clashing in Cairo. These reports have come after reports from state-owned Egyptian satellite Al-Misriyah TV saying army leadership extended the curfew from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. local time to the whole country. Read more »

http://app.response.stratfor.com/e/es.aspx?s=1483&e=185230&elq=3d1214fc30c44e288de666d595cea85c

Now if this is the case... we just entered endgame.

[riverwalker]

1. same thing on Twitter

there have been tweets of clashes between army and police.

[elleng]

3. Twitter availale there now?

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. here for twitter

http://twitter.com/#!/search/egypt

Be warned, it MOVES fast

[elleng]

14. Thanks. Great.

[elleng]

2. Very interesting; please keep us informed.

Some discussion on NewsHour about military and police.

[LiberalLoner]

4. Stupid question but...does this mean the Army is on the side of the people or is there

some other dynamic at work instead...?

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. I have no clue at this point

I am going to go troll Al Jazeera next.

[LiberalLoner]

9. Thanks, please keep us informed. :) n/t

[cali]

10. there have been reports all day on al-jazeera that the army

has been "greeted warmly" by protesters.

[dixiegrrrrl]

7. This may add to the enlightenment of what is happening:

It may explain why military was reported to be fighting police
in Cairo and alexandria this am.
and perhaps a plan for military control and return of Mubarak's son?

"The Egyptian military planned for a "smooth" transfer of power to the president’s son in the event of regime change, according to recently published US diplomatic cables.

A senior Egyptian politician told an American diplomat in July 2009 <09CAIRO1468> that the military would safeguard a "constitutional transition of power" and implied the armed forces would support Gamal Mubarak, the son of current president Hosni Mubarak. Dr. Ali El Deen Hilal Dessouki, a former minister in the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), claimed that even though "the real center of power in Egypt is the military", they would have "no objection to a civilian" as the next president.

http://wikileaks.ch/Egyptian-Military-Succession-Plans.html

[Hannah Bell]

8. and who controls the egyptian military? maybe those who fund & train them?

The United States has provided Egypt with an annual average of over $2 billion in economic and
military foreign assistance since 1979.

P.L. 111-8, the FY2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act,
provides $200 million in Economic Support Fund (ESF) assistance and $1.3 billion in Foreign
Military Financing (FMF) assistance to Egypt.

For the first time, Congress stipulated that FMF
grants to Egypt may be used for “border security programs and activities in the Sinai,” a reference
to anti-smuggling initiatives on the Egypt-Gaza border.

The ESF grants to Egypt were less than
half of the FY2008 level with $20 million earmarked for democracy programs and $35 million
for education programs, including scholarships for Egyptian students with high financial need.

Egypt received an additional $50 million in ESF assistance from P.L. 111-32, the FY2009
Supplemental Appropriations Act.

S. 1434, the Senate version of the Department of State, Foreign
Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2010 (which awaits floor action), includes
a provision that would fund a U.S.-Egypt endowment.

Current Issues in U.S.-Egyptian Relations - 2009

Presidential Succession: Who will Follow Hosni Mubarak?

Uncertainty over the potential successor to 81-year-old President Hosni Mubarak has clouded
Egyptian domestic politics and U.S.-Egyptian relations for the last decade.9

In 2009, there have
been rumors in the Egyptian press suggesting that Mubarak’s health has deteriorated, that he is
frail, and that he is emotionally distraught over the death of his 12-year-old grandson.

Another
wave of arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders accompanied by speculation that parliament
would dissolve early and new elections would follow also have contributed to the uncertain
atmosphere surrounding the President’s future.

Based on a series of constitutional amendments enacted in the last few years, ruling elites have
worked to establish the veneer of a legal framework to facilitate a smooth transition of power,
despite claims by the opposition that the amendments are illegitimate...

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf

I suggest it's not all about "the people rising up" either.

I'd bet there are plenty of ruling class actors who'd be happy to see the now-83-year-old mubarak go.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Ah wilkileaks strikes again

and unlike most of them... this one is actionable RIGHT NOW.

[stevedeshazer]

12. +1

[neverforget]

13. Stratfor is down at the moment

[TomClash]

15. Stratfor

Open source intel.

Ugh. Not the best source.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Of course not, they are using the same

feed I am using... but when sleeping they have eyes on it