'The US is not so concerned with events in Egypt because the military is

[snagglepuss]

firmly in place. - These demonstrations were not spontaneous. Egyptian military behind the demonstrations.

So says Kamran Bokhari who is is director of Middle East Analysis with STRATFOR. He made some very interesting observations in an interview on TVO (Ontario public tv).

Bokari says military is the real power in Egypt and annoyed that Mubarak is hanging on to power. They want him out. One problem they face is a replacement since there is no VP as Mubarak never named one. The next in line is the Speaker of the House but Bokari did not address why that person wouldn't be suitable.

Other observations


- Israel he says would be watching events closely but probably feel fairly confident that even if Mubarak falls, given the military's hold on power, Islamists would not take control

- He believes that the military will stop supporting Mubarak if protests continue. Their support of Mubarak is provisional. What happens in the days to come will determine Mubarak's future.

- He said the country to watch since events in Tunisia is Syria which is the most totalitarian in the ME and is controlled by a ethnic minority

- He said protests in other countries since Tunisia have to be analyzed individually. Jordanians for example don't want to depose the King they simply want subsidies re-instated.



Podcast

http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/index.cfm?page_id=7&bpn=779943&ts=2011-01-28%2020:00:00.0

[TheWraith]

1. I'm not sure that the military taking over for Mubarak would be any better.

By the way, in case anyone is confused--despite the acronym, STRATFOR is not associated with the US military or intelligence services. It is a private company, also known as Strategic Forecasting Inc.

[snagglepuss]

2. He says military has the power now, that Mubarak is basically a figurehead.

It would seem that the military does not want to openly assert power. All smoke and mirrors.

[xchrom]

3. some of the big whigs of the egyptian military are in dc this week.

maybe they are saying that with the u.s. blessing.

[Hannah Bell]

11. always a possibility.

[Kaleva]

4. I've read that the military isn't thrilled with Mubarak's son possibly taking over.

[snagglepuss]

7. Now that you mention it I recall reports about that last year. The military's

involvement would explain why the army has been so restrained.

[Hannah Bell]

12. things click into place. fall elections were supposed to install gamel as

successor.

lots of backstory there, that would explain why the ambiguous signals from the us, succession discussions, & why mubarak is still there at 83.

he should have tried to install sonny-boy earlier, methinks.

[snagglepuss]

16. It's an odd coincidence that the generals were out of the country.

[Jennicut]

5. It is curious why the military is simply doing nothing right now.

Something tells me they would be fine with Mubarek gone but would they be any better for the people there?

[snagglepuss]

9. If Mubarak is basically a figurehead, he'll be replaced by another figurehead.

[northoftheborder]

6. very interesting. hmmmm

"if Mubarak falls, given the military's hold on power, Islamists would not take control" That still does not answer problematic question of who would take power. One of their generals? If this assessment is true, it explains why the military did not attack the protesters, who were friendly to the military.

[snagglepuss]

8. From what I gathered the lack of a replacement is why the military decided

to provisionally back Mubarak. Bokari said that Mubarak was Sadat's VP which is how he got installed after Sadat's assassination and is why Mubarak never named a VP.

[Hannah Bell]

14. from a 2009 congressional research report:

Presidential Succession: Who will Follow Hosni Mubarak?

Uncertainty over the potential successor to 81-year-old President Hosni Mubarak has clouded
Egyptian domestic politics and U.S.-Egyptian relations for the last decade.9 In 2009, there have
been rumors in the Egyptian press suggesting that Mubarak’s health has deteriorated, that he is
frail, and that he is emotionally distraught over the death of his 12-year-old grandson. Another
wave of arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders accompanied by speculation that parliament
would dissolve early and new elections would follow also have contributed to the uncertain
atmosphere surrounding the President’s future.

Based on a series of constitutional amendments enacted in the last few years, ruling elites have
worked to establish the veneer of a legal framework to facilitate a smooth transition of power,
despite claims by the opposition that the amendments are illegitimate. For potential presidential
candidates not from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Egyptian law sets a high bar for
establishing eligibility to run. For example, amended Article 76 states that for any candidate to
run for president, he or she has to gain the approval of 250 members of elected assemblies and
municipalities, including, among other signatures, 25 members of the Shura Council (upper
house), which is almost entirely composed of pro-ruling party members. In addition, a candidate
representing a political party must be a member of the party’s respective higher board for at least
one year. Parties that have had at least one member in either house of parliament since May 1,
2007, are eligible to nominate a candidate for the presidency until 2017. Finally, all parties that
nominate a candidate must have been legally operating for at least five consecutive years before
the starting date of candidature.

The next presidential election is scheduled for the fall of 2011. Gamal Mubarak, the President’s
46-year-old son, is, according to most experts, the overwhelming favorite to follow his father.

The
younger Mubarak has had a meteoric rise to the highest levels of the NDP, suggesting to many
observers that his accession to the presidency may be imminent. Gamal Mubarak is already
deputy/assistant secretary general of the NDP party, and was appointed to the NDP’s new 50-
member Supreme Council, which will choose the party’s presidential candidate.

In the summer of
2009, the Coptic Pope Shenouda III wholeheartedly endorsed Gamal Mubarak stating, “I wish
and pray for God to prolong Hosni Mubarak’s life, but the presidency issue has got nothing to do
with succession.... Most Egyptians love Gamal Mubarak and they will vote for him ahead of any
other candidate running against him in elections—that is if they find anyone to run against
him.”10 During President Mubarak’s visit to the United States in August 2009, he stated in an
interview that “We have never discussed it. Nobody knows who will succeed—we have elections.
When the time comes for elections, the people will vote.”11

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf


Timing of this "rev" interesting

[Hannah Bell]

17. also interesting that the talking tv heads keep speaking in dire tones about the involvement

of the muslim brotherhood.

"people are praying!"

omg!

[Hannah Bell]

10. i think it's interesting that elections are scheduled in the fall & mubarak's son had

been considered a shoe-in for his successor -- by some.

i was wondering if someone not wanting that result had played into this at all.

also there's been discussion of the mubarak succession for years in us policy circles per congressional research.

something happening here but not exactly clear

[EFerrari]

13. No military is firmly in place when hundreds of thousands take to the street

unless they are willing to open fire.

[fascisthunter]

15. that's quite the theory

lol