Will Egypt's Army Side With The Protestors? Key Thing To Watch Say Observers.

[sabrina 1]

Last night protestors welcomed the army and appeared to be very happy to see them rather than the police.




Protesters cheered and chanted earlier today (Jan. 29, 2011) as they rode on an Army truck that was rolling into Cairo's Tahrir Square.

Key Thing To Watch Now In Egypt: How The Army Reacts

When NPR's Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson was on the air from Cairo this morning with Weekend Edition's Scott Simon, Egyptian Army tanks and personnel carriers rolled into Tahrir Square. And anti-government protesters, she said, were riding atop them — cheering and waving to others in the crowd.

Wow, that gave me chills! However, observers say that the army will have to make a decision if they are ordered to fire on the people and that is what people will be watching for.

"It is amazing how receptive the crowd is to the Army. ... They are welcoming them like heroes!" Soraya shouted over the noise.

"Why are people cheering and crawling all over the tanks?" Scott asked. "Are they certain the Army is on their side?"

"They are absolutely convinced of this," Soraya said. But, she added, "at this stage the Army is still being deployed by the government and Mr. Mubarak."

From the New Republic:

Five Things to Understand About the Egyptian Riots

Watch the military:

There are institutions in Egypt, and they will ultimately, though perhaps not today, make the decisive difference. Years of repression and neglect mean that there’s no obvious civilian—much less secular—force that can immediately step in to govern Egypt. But there are institutions: the military; the security services; blocs of elites around business, academic, and religious institutions; and the political parties and movements. The choices they make now will be central to what happens and how. Right now, it appears that the police have withdrawn from the street rather than escalate to live fire, and that the army is in the street and being welcomed by the protestors—the military has not been deployed in Cairo since 1986 and has never fired on Egyptian civilians, though confused reports of its actions in Cairo today are still emerging.

They have never fired on Egyptian civilians. I have a feeling they won't do it now.

And from the NYT:

Egypt’s Military Is Seen as Pivotal in Next Step

....

Egypt’s military, with about 468,000 soldiers, is an institution apart, with its own social clubs and shopping centers. It has expanded over the decades into civilian areas like real estate development and engineering.

....


But deploying tanks is a sign of desperation, and raises the question of when the military might begin to doubt Mr. Mubarak’s viability. The tipping point could come, analysts believe, if the military is ordered to fire on demonstrators in any large numbers. It is one thing to protect government buildings from looters, but something else to tarnish the reputation of the army by killing citizens, they said.

Looking at the pictures of the army and the protesters, you cannot help but feel hopeful. And, the military will play a very big role should Mubarak's government fall. They would lose all respect, not just in Egypt, but everywhere, if they were to side with the Dictator now.



“If the military fires on civilians after demonstrations that are clearly popular, that will imperil the standing of the military, its integrity,” said Samer Shehata, a professor of Arab politics at Georgetown University. “This time the institution’s future is at risk.”



Egyptian Army Soldiers

I hope they do the right thing. The Dictator or the People? I really think they will!

[ananda]

1. Does it worry anyone here that the army is such a decisive factor?

It does me. This is after all supposed to be a people's revolt.

[sabrina 1]

3. The people seem to respect the army. They have not been the ones

brutalizing the people all these years unlike Mubarak's thugs.

[lonestarnot]

2. It is sounding like they are, however, they are also having difficulty figuring out who is who among

the protestors and "thugs." Then there are police infiltrators.

[sabrina 1]

4. I think the people know who the infiltrators are. They've been

sending out messages online all week pointing them out. They caught, eg, plain clothes police pouring gasoline on cars, getting them ready to set on fire and then blame the protestors. By the time the big protests occurred, their game was exposed.

These are people who have been subjected to years of oppression. They know who they are. I think it is a true people's movement and in every town, the thugs are known and right now are probably worrying about where to go if the government falls and all of them face charges of human rights abuses under a new government. This is what is happening in Latin America and in Tunisia. Accountability! Imagine that. Too bad it did not occur sooner and we would not be seeing these revolutions today. Too bad the U.S. has supported and engaged in those abuses. We now have little moral authority to tell anyone what to do.

[sabrina 1]

5. Just heard on Al Jazeera that the army will not fire

on the people, nor will they prevent them from anything they want to do.

People have been worried that the military will start to crack down on the people. But every report I heard tonight says that will not happen.

They are letting the people into Tahrir Square, just blocking some exits for security reasons.

The guest on Al Jazeera says he has talked to some of the officers and has been told the only thing the military will do is to stop anything that may be a security threat.