How are we looking in the House and Senate for 2012?

[mahina]

I remember that in the leadup to 2010 elections, we were vulnerable in a much larger proportion that the Republicans were.

How is is looking for next year?

[nevergiveup]

1. It will depend on Obama's coattails

and that will depend on the unemployment rate. If it remains at 9% or above Obama and all Democrats will be in trouble.

[onehandle]

5. Right and Obama's win(?) will be razor thin. 2012 will look more like 2004 or 2000.

In other words back to normal.

The unemployment rate is projected to be over 8%, probably still around 9%.

Not taking bets yet.

[pnwmom]

6. How do you know his win will be razor thin? n/t

[dairydog91]

2. Not great, not horrible.

21* Democrats up for election in the Senate, as opposed to 10 Republicans. However, the Republicans are at a high point in the House of Representatives, and they're probably going to have a devil of a time holding onto that sort of majority.

*This does not factor in independents.

[TheWraith]

3. Well, in the House, it's flipped around so the Republicans have more seats up.

The proportion of those that are in truly swing districts is key, but in general, they have more to lose than we do.

Bad news is that in the Senate, 23 Democrats are up for reelection, and only 10 Republicans. And 10 of those Democratic seats are ones I would say are potentially vulnerable: Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, etcetera. And only a couple of the Rep seats are potential pickups, like Massachusetts and Maine. It's going to take good coattails to keep all our Dems.

[rpannier]

4. Pretty much in the same spot in the Senate

We are protecting more seats this time around than in '06. We picked up 6 seats in the anti-Bush wave
Webb, Casey, Tester, both Nelsons, McCaskill and Brown in Ohio

[leftygolfer]

7. We are in good shape

because the Rethugs will show what asses they are over the next two years and the American people will rise up to kick the bums out

[cali]

14. we're in lousy shape.

dems have far more up for re-election in the Senate than repubs.

[hfojvt]

8. well wiki has an analysis of the Senate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

Seems like we might be vulnerable in Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia - just going by Presidential elections. They might be vulnerable in Maine and Massachusetts.

The House races will depend on redistricting. Much of which is going to be done by Republicans in the state legislatures.

[AC_Mem]

9. I think President Obama will win his second term

And it will be a good win, perhaps as good as or better than 2008.

Every active democrat should be doing their part to make not only this happen, but also to protect our democratic senators as well.

They will need our help. I will be there to help them.

[Dawson Leery]

10. +1

Consider primaries if you do not like the DLC Dems.

[mahina]

16. +1000

We'd better figure out how to start organizing differently than usual, and really, really soon. Citizens United is ...well, you know.

Good luck, I'm right there with you over here. We do calling to other states from our party HQ since Hawaii is so solid (again, thank God...we got rid of Djou).

Aloha~

[LAGC]

11. Depends on how eager they are to pursue gun control.

If they take the bait, all bets are off.

[upi402]

12. Corporatists are inately incapable of creating jobs

All they can do is eliminate jobs and pocketting short term profits. Not looking hopeful IMHO.

[readmoreoften]

13. I think Obama will win. I won't vote for him but most Americans don't follow the news so...

I can't tell you how many straight people I know think Obama is pro-same-sex marriage and how many non-military and non-activist folks think he's anti-war or that we're about to leave Afghanistan. The Republicans are monsters with no charismatic figures and the Obama propaganda machine is pretty strong. He'll probably win.

The short answer is: your union will be busted, your schools will be closed, your taxes will go to war and torture, your president will be against same-sex marriage and hang around with Ugandan anti-gay executioners, your president will hang out with and support dictators, your president will push the dismantling of social security, your president will support NAFTA and other neoliberal globalization policies that destroy the economy at home and abroad, and most of all, your president will do what Goldman Sachs wants.

The choice is do you vote for the person who brags about doing all these things or equivocates and apologizes and speechifies about how he's not really doing any of these things, or why they're (unfortunately) necessary. That's your choice these days.

[hfojvt]

15. How did this thread end up being about Obama?

The question was about the House and Senate.

We cannot expect Mr. O to turn left if the left cannot win lots of House and Senate races.