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The Egypt story is still a stalemate, although the intensity and commitment of both sides is increasing. I'm usually pretty good at predicting how these sorts of world events will play out. But this one is suspenseful cliffhanger. The U.S. government, once that we know of in the person of the president of the U.S.A., told Mubarak it would be best if he'd go now and let his newly-appointed VP, Suleiman, formerly torture top and CIA liaison, be the official frontman. This is the guy who said out loud to the media that Egypt isn't "ready" for democracy. But he is reluctantly ready to be the Head of State, someone the U.S.-Israeli State Departments can work with.
The protesters in "Liberation" Square, as least as they are depicted (Will Rogers said he only knew what he read on the papers; me, I only know what I see on TV or the Internet), have only one demand -- that Big Mub begone. I get the impression that many of the protesters would be OK if he would just go even if it left them with Boss Suleiman. Then they'd feel as if they'd won. And maybe their newly acquired political clout -- ephemeral as it is -- can get them some new fake privileges. But a lot of Egyptians, the rich moneymaking ones, want to get back to business as usual. They want the tourists back on the camels gawking at the Sphinx before heading back to their air conditioned suites in the five star hotels. They don't want to rock the boat in relations with Israel for whatever reason. Radical Islamists (the Muslim Brotherhood) are there in the Tahrir crowds, but are keeping a low profile, playing along with the widely held view that it isn't about them (yet).
Of course we pessimists don't think business as usual is going to be restored in Egypt or anywhere else ever. The world electronic economy is so interconnected that disruption in Egypt can easily rattle the whole global wireless cage. No matter what the site-specific outcome in Egypt turns out to be, things have changed and human adaptability is going to be challenged in upcoming years, months, maybe even days as never before. Civil as the gatherings in Tahrir squares have been, it is, to me, unrealistic to expect other people in other places and other cultures to be that nice. There are many Americans whom I would not trust to peaceably assemble for the redress of grievances without bringing guns and shooting first and asking questions later. ("Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" as a T-shirt worn in the days of Vietnam said.)
To do a revolution takes more than a lot of people getting mad and hitting the streets demanding change. What that often leads to is a change of figurehead frontmen. Of course, the frontmen like Mubarak don't want to give up being frontmen. They like it, so how quickly they skedaddle depends on a lot of factors -- their personal stubbornness and stashed fortunes among them. Most who have been in Big Mub's situation have headed for the hills more quickly than he seems ready to, but some like Baby Doc Duvallier in Haiti wait for a chance to return and grab power again decades later. I think Pinochet of Chili always seemed to be hoping to do that.
The way it often goes is like what went down in 1986 in the Philippines. Marcos and his shoe-ohaulic wife proved to be a major embarrassments, "people power" demonstrations caused them to leave after repeatedly saying they wouldn't, especially after the troops didn't fire. Ready to step in was Corazon Aquino, a member in good standing of the establishment. She had name recognition and great public sympathy because her husband, Begnino Acquino, had been a Marcos opponent who had been gunned down getting off an airplane, presumably by idiots acting for Marcos. Cory stepped into the presidency. The military, especially General Felix Ramos, formerly Marcos's Suleiman, held off the coup attempts and followed her to the Presidency. No major reordering of political or economic arrangements were made except a cutback in secret police type activities. Aquino's son is running the place today.
A real revolution involves bloodshed and loss of life. In a fairly small place like Cuba it can be done by an army that had been hiding in the hills for a few years while they tried to figure how to get guns. But a big place like China takes a Long March with a whole lot of dying and millions of supportive peasants in the hills far away from the Central Authority's reach.
I have stated on this site that I think going against The Empire that way is a loosing proposition, and repliers took me to task for saying that because I was giving aid and comfort to The Empire. OK, maybe so. Those who feel it's worth a try won't let my tut-tut objections hold them back. I think it's a hearts and minds battle, but one that the good guys are currently losing big time.
Stuff is going to get worse in new and surprising ways no matter which side -- or some third side we didn't see coming -- comes out on top in Egypt.
For the record, I hope I'm hallucinating the whole thing and that I'm utterly wrong about everything.
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