A military coup in Egypt?

[Skip_In_Boulder]

As I am watching this unfold on Al-Jazeera TV I am starting to wonder if this is a coup we are seeing unfolding in Egypt. And here's why.

*Currently, President Obama is meeting with his security council.
*CBS network news reported before Mubarak's speech something about a soft coup, whatever that means.
*Then during Ed Schultz show today he reported that at that time Mubarak was at a location near the airport which was surrounded by tanks, although I have not been able to find a news source for that.

*And then there was this strange post on DU a couple of days ago quoting Suleiman saying he did not favor a coup which was completely out of context given the circumstances at that time. The post can be found here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=378193&mesg_id=378232

*Then after Mubarak spoke Suleiman made a speech which at first blush sounded like he was threating the protesters but after thinking about it I have to wonder if he was trying to tell them that they need to get out of the way.

A military coup in Egypt?
DAVID BLACKBURN 5:20pm
Reports from Tahrir Square are very confused. There is a firm body of opinion who doubt the ‘tough cookie’ Mubarak would have stood aside. Many suspect that today’s announcements are a ruse designed to strengthen his position. As Richard Ottaway put it, ‘Ill believe it when I see it.’

Meanwhile, others report the Mubarak has been pushed or ‘been resigned’. The Foreign Office is understood to be preparing a contingency plan for what is being described as "a soft military coup". For the first time ever, the senior council of the military is meeting in open session without the President or his representatives: a very provocative or very risky move depending on your persuasion.

For its part, the ruling party is holding the line. General Secretary, Hossam Badrawi, has told the BBC that Mubarak has been "accomodating" in discussions about handing over to the Vice-President. According to the regime's TV channel, Omar Suleiman and Mubarak are meeting now to discuss the transition.

The army will, of course, be crucial to ensuring an ordered transfer of power in a country it has controlled since 1952. As Daniel has noted, Egypt’s future is far from secure even in the protestors' moment of triumph. It is uncertain whether the disparate opposition could find accommodation among themselves, let alone with Omar Suleiman. In this context then, perhaps the Egyptian military has intervened for the 'good of the state', something in which it is historically practised.

Rumours of a coup are tearing through Cairo. The army could save Mubarak, remove him, install Suleiman, or remove him. The word 'fluid' barely describes the situation; 'smooth transition of power' it isn't.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6689213/a-military-coup-in-egypt.thtml

[Faygo Kid]

1. My guess: Army gets him out of Egypt, along with Suleiman - then takes power.

The Army isn't going to give up its perks easily, but they have to know that Mubarak is finished, and they aren't going to hang their hats on him. He will either be removed and flown out, or will get his wish to die in Egypt.

I can't see the Army firing on the people for Mubarak's sake. Much as Beck and the FReepers wish that to happen.

[tekisui]

3. It's time. He has to go.

[Faygo Kid]

17. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Tooting one's own horn, as it were. Congrats to the Egyptian people, and especially Glenn Beck, who obviously had it all figured out.

[northoftheborder]

2. RE: location of Mubarak

After his speech was broadcast, I heard on MSNBC, that Mubarak's palace was on the road to the airport (where, as stated above, his place was surrounded by security); later heard that his palace was no longer surrounded by tanks. It's entirely supposition on my part, but I bet his speech was recorded, he left the palace, speech broadcast, and Mubarak is gone - where, no one knows.

[RagAss]

4. My guess...the square is sealed off and the people starve.

Dictators always win....until you see yourself as already dead.

[Statistical]

5. How can there be a military coup when the military has been in complete control for 30 years?

The military has complete control over both the political and economic systems in Egypt.

Nothing happens (including Mubarak ascendancy) without the express approval of the Egyptian military.

[Skip_In_Boulder]

6. I suppose that who runs the military can be up for grabs.

[Statistical]

8. Exactly.

If the military decides to get rid of Mubarak and put another person "in charge" (mostly as a figurehead) then nothing has really changed.

The Egyptian military was in complete control of Egypt, the Egyptian military is in complete control of Egypt, and they will be in complete control of Egypt.

The military replacing Mubarak with Murbarak 2.0 would be like replacing Bush with Cheney and calling it change.

If the protesters are successful and bring about REAL CHANGE it will be despite the military. The military brass (senior officers) have gotten insanely rich off the crony socialism that Egyptian military has instituted over the last 30 years. They are unlikely to allow anyone who would threaten that to gain real power.

[tekisui]

7. A military coup that removes Mubarak and VP, installing a civil leader for

the transition would be ideal. The constitution actually would place the Speaker of the Parliament at the head.

[Statistical]

9. Why would the Egyptian military do that?

The Egyptian military is in CONTROL NOW. They have been in control for last 30 years.

Why would they in essence cut their own throats. Name a military in the history of the world that was in complete power and overthrew itself to put an outside entity (Democratically elected civil leader) in power.

[tekisui]

11. They could have shut this down at anytime. They haven't

We'll see. I don't think, even with a coup, that the military will rule without a civil leader. We'll see.

[Statistical]

13. The military HAS been ruling for 30 years without a civil leader.

Mubarak is merely a figurehead there is nothing he has done or will do in the future that doesn't have the "ok" from Egyptian senior military officials.

[sufrommich]

10. The military isn't a monolithic group all in agreement with it's

leaders. I think a lot of people don't remember that Gamal Nasser was a junior officer when he overthrew the King in a military coup. He overthrew the old generals first.

[Statistical]

12. True. but it is hardly a military coup when one person in the military

seizes power from another person in the military.

Also anyone with any real power in the Egyptian military gets to siphon on millions of wealth generated by Egyptian military state controlled corporations.

Stealing from the poor people in Egypt is a perk reserved for the top ranks of Egyptian military. The idea that a majority of the very people who have become insanely wealthy (on the backs of the working poor in Egypt) over last 30 years will suddenly do anything to upset that gravy train is naive at best.

[sufrommich]

14. I don't see a lot of Egyptians calling for the end of the military.

Do you? Maybe they're just too naive.

[Statistical]

16. Ending the military is simplistic.

Egypt needs a military.

Ending the corruption in the military is a different and far more complex thing.
Making sure that the elections have true legitimacy and that the will of the people has actual power is another complicated thing.

The protesters may be successful but it is simplistic at best to think what is the best interest of the senior military leaders (the ones who have ruled and profited from the status quo for 30 years) and the best interest of the protesters are aligned.

The protesters may be successful however it will be in spite of the military not because of it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Fluid, yes... and we are seeing Mubarak claim to stil

be President... while transferring power to Suleiman, yet it is not clear who is who in the zoo.

So fluid is a way to describe this.