The Korean issue keeps getting hotter

[nadinbrzezinski]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12033330

Using the IPAD so more than just giving you a link is hard to do.

Suffice it to say that people are trying hard to cool this one down. But we may see resumption of that war soon enough. Realize as of 1999 the N. Koreans have considered the terms of the armistice to be ahem...negotiable.

Now I return you all to your previously scheduled whatever. Reality is that when the shooting resumes most Americans will be taken by surprise, since our lovely nooz has done such an astounding job.... :sarcasm:

[alsame]

1. CNN has been talking about this today. Blitzer is in S Korea with

Bill Richardson.

Not much coverage anywhere else.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Richardson has been playing non official

at this point I am guessing semi official envoy.

[alsame]

7. Blitzer said he was unofficially sent by the State Dept. He is

getting all the official state visit meetings, motorcade, etc.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. So now has moved to the official

I wish him well

[originalpckelly]

22. Yep, we all need to wish him well...

It's a wonderful thought that talking could literally prevent a tragedy.

[originalpckelly]

3. In any tense situation, shit can happen...but...

They have a massive industrial complex in South Korea that would seem to lose a ton of productivity if they resumed active combat, rather than observing the armistice. I doubt that intentional escalation would occur. The goal of any drills would be deterrence to the North.

But, considering the US has troops there, we have an interest in the issue, and your update is welcome.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Even if we did not have troops

it behooves us to find out what is going on oustide our boirders. IN this case N. Korea does have nukes... no matter all them non denials denials. Upper Atmoerspheric wind will bring the crap here too... in ten days tops... worst case.

[originalpckelly]

15. Their nukes are probably only fission bombs, not fusion bombs.

Even if they were fusion bombs, H-Bombs, then we'd only have so much to worry about. I mean, we tested these things in the USA at one time before the above ground ban on the stuff.

Their bombs are probably weak, in other words. It would devastating to the people of the South, but the world would survive.

What would worry the US, is the North giving a terrorist group a bomb to detonate in the US. I sincerely doubt that would happen. There wouldn't be a North Korea if that happened.

But, I'm a peace/anti-nuke activist, so I'm still concerned. People on both sides could die, and I'm a human first. Not an American.

There is also the concern that this could destabilize the region beyond the Korean peninsula and draw nations into another world war, and who knows what happens in that scenario.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Interlocking alliances and all that

guns of august...

I said what I said because Americans really don't give a shit what happens outside our physical borders. It is maddening as hell,

[OmahaBlueDog]

18. Yes, but if we feel compelled to nuke Pyongyang, it's an open question what the Chinese will do.

Nothing? Fire back at SoKor? Call their loans? Engage the US in WW III?

[originalpckelly]

19. We won't nuke them if they nuke SK, but if they hurt the US directly...

that's the situation where you could guarantee a nuclear response.

If anyone actually uses nukes ever again, it would be highly destabilizing for the state of affairs internationally, between all nations. I guess that's one reason we should also be concerned about this.

And if the South goes to war against the North, it might open up the world of possibilities where Kim's most loyal followers might launch the weapons in a last ditch attempt to make the South pay for invading and collapsing Kim regime. That's why nukes complicate shit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. If we have 12K US Casualties

quite possible if this goes hot... what do you think the American people will demand?

This is why this is not funny at all.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. If Americans needed to know about Korea...

there would be a reality TV show where Obama and world leaders are dumped on an Island and asked to dodge artillery shells or something, and occasionally be given the chance to vote someone off.

The lousy job of the News begins with people who don't want to be informed, and is reinforced by a media that only cares about making a buck and seeing that people don't want to be frightened, only titillated, hence the popularity of naked dead blonds on the news.

Disgusted much?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. It goes well beyond that

and it is entrenched deeply in the culture going back four hundred years.

[Ozymanithrax]

11. I aware that it is deeper...

We have always been an inward and isolationst nation of inbred Appalchian Scotch Irish hicks, I was just express frustration at the multiple layered feedback loop that encourages ignorance and discourags civic virtue.

[virgogal]

23. Scotch Irish hicks? Well thank you very much------your tolerance

need tweaking.

God.

[Ozymanithrax]

24. I too am Scotch Irish. Read a bit of cultural history... n/t

[virgogal]

25. Uummmmm-----I have.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. Actually the early population (the indentured part)

came from the Borderer Marches in England, the Scott Border and the Irish Plantation .

[coalition_unwilling]

36. Scotch-Irish hick here. An ancestor (on the Scotch-Irish hick side) fought

in the Iron Brigade that pretty much saved the Union at Gettysburg on the first day. Scoth-Irish hick side married Germano-Hungarian proto-Aryan family, so I'm more a mutt than a hick.

[NNN0LHI]

6. SKorean leaders are not going to empty out their factories full of workers to act as bullet catchers

They are too valuable for that.

Relax.

Don

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Yep, why am I reminded off... that Summer in 1914?

[Ozymanithrax]

14. A modern echo of the Guns of August. n/t

[originalpckelly]

17. We hope and think that...

but like earthquakes and wildfires, things that do not look too substantial can draw parties around the world into a greater conflict. China and the US already are rivals, like never before, and tensions are rising. If something happens to the North, it might be an excuse to support them against the US. And China could win a war, because they have much greater industrial capacity. This really is a matter of life and death. Of national security, and we just keep farming out production of goods to China.

[OmahaBlueDog]

20. China would win a conventional war

They have more troops and far more industrial capacity.

However, we have more nukes, and we'd use them.

[originalpckelly]

21. And if we really used them...it would be worse than the Holocaust.

Shit can get out of hand very easily when tensions are high like they are now. We just have to hope for the best, because the way things are set up, the people of the US are really just along for the ride until the next election.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Get familiar with this term....

Mutually Assured Destruction.... short of a very LIMITED war, nobody wins a nuclear war.

War Games is a good movie, but a good example of this too.

[OmahaBlueDog]

35. I'm familiar with the term.

It was very applicable to the old Soviet Union. China is a bit different. They have nuclear weapons. They don't have the vast array of delivery devices the old SOviets had. Not much in the way of strategic bombers or subs, for example.

[alsame]

10. SK will carry out live fire drills tomorrow morning per CNN. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Ah tomorrow by our time, and tuesday their time...

Date zone is just damn funny.

[madrchsod]

26. it`s not looking good...

if richardson can`t get anywhere with those two nations it is not going to be pretty. the us carrier fleet can not stop all the firepower the north has aimed at south korea.china can not afford to lose north korea and can not afford refuges streaming across the border.

we do not have enough ground troops and equiment to support the south koreans.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. Which leaves one alternative

and it involves mushroom clouds. Americans will demand that as soon as they realize we lost 12K troops in a few hours.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

33. You might be surprised what the Carrier Group can do

Interdiction and targeting choke points can prevent a lot of movement without actually killing and destroying large numbers. Same thing goes for power, water, POI, rail, shipping. There will also be support from regional airbases and long distance from other US assets(think ALCM...). This has been long enough in coming that air and naval assets are staged and contingencies planned for.

If the NKs get stupid (again) I expect the SKs to take non-proportional action. Their people are demanding it. If it escalates into full blown war I am more concerned about NK tunnels and other non-obvious/unknown tricks they have up their sleeve negating day one planning. After that its going to be reactive anyway.

I think China would just as soon see NK go away provided it does not cause them a loss of face. If they could get the credit for it they would force reunification under the south tomorrow.

You are quite right, what is lacking is boots on the ground, and there is nothing that can be done at this late stage.



Does anyone else remember the book "Red Phoenix" by Larry Bond? Different triggers but set in the same time of year.

[madrchsod]

34. i think it was bbc overnight that asked a us expert about this...

up to a month before it would get to a big problem. not enough reserve troops to fight a land war. he said north korea could do terrific damage to Seoul before the us could silence the weapons.

i guess we will wait and see who blinks

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. People just cannot fathom the artillery

concentration in the DMZ... they just don't.

They could level Seul in a few hours if they get completely free fire...

[ProgressiveProfessor]

40. NK has done a lot of hardening, but the west has been working on ways to defeat it.

We really do not want a live fire test to see who did it better.

For non-hardened site, the ideal weapon is submunitions, AKA cluster bombs. (I know I will catch hell for saying that)

[HEyHEY]

37. People seem to forget the South has a formidable military on its own

As well as food, fuel...etc.

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. If nobody helps the North

due to lack of logistics they will collapse within a month, worst case.

It is what they can do in the meantime that potentially makes me stand up and pay attention.

[PufPuf23]

31. Quote from BBC article (and my comment)

"Speaking to reporters after more than eight hours of discussions, Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin called on South Korea to cancel its plans.

"It's better to refrain from doing this exercise at this point in time," he said.

He said the UN had failed to reach an agreement on the crisis, but contacts would be pursued between the main powers.

The issue has threatened to divide permanent members of the Security Council - with China and Russia urging South Korea to put off the exercise, but the US saying its ally is entitled to make sure it is "properly prepared in the face of... ongoing provocations".

The US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said it was "safe to predict that the gaps that remain are unlikely to bridged.""

End quote from BBC.

The UN Security Council rift is between the USA versus China and Russia.

Supposedly, the USA and China support a re-united Korea and North Korea is an enemy or a problem child respectively.

American and Russian Oligarchies have much in common.

North Korea has the potential to do much nihilistic damage and be smashed but the repercussions are hard to estimate but bad.

Hot war on the Korean peninsula serves no common person.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. War never serves anybody

Except that at this point I think the Chinese have lost control of their client state... the Russians don't have any... and Kim needs his son to show he has what it takes.

Why I am reminded of 1914... who'd think that a shooting in a periphery city of one of the Empires would lead to almost five years of killing?