Oil could hit $200 if Arab unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia: CEBR

[marmar]

Oil could hit $200 if Arab unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia: CEBR
By Jijo Jacob | March 4, 2011 5:50 PM GMT


Crude prices will touch $200 a barrel if the Arab revolution spreads to Saudi Arabia, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said on Friday.

'... the revolutions around the Arab world have pushed up the price of oil which had temporarily stabilised at $116 yesterday. This is 38% above its average level for 2010. And if the unrest spreads to the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, the price could rise to $200 easily, CEBR said.

However, irrespective of whether the unrest gobbles up Saudi Arabia or not, the oil policy of the world's largest exporter is going to change, according to Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the London-based think tank.

He points out that Saudi Arabia has acted as a swing producer historically, using its reserve production capacity as a lever on price stability. Saudi Arabia has acted to prevent a price overheating, which could push the world into looking for alternatives, in which case oil producers' revenues will dry up. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/118901/20110304/saudi-arabia-oil-crude-price-200-arab-unrest-middle-east-gulf-production.htm

[tekisui]

1. Bring it on.

[DURHAM D]

2. Really?

Do you live in a country where public transportation is an option?

[tekisui]

4. I live in a city where it is.

Honestly, I think two things after reading this. One, it is fear mongering to keep the people in line.

Second, we get oil at a price that is not realistic. If we were forced to pay actual costs, we would be quicker to transition to alternatives.


But ultimately, I value people's right to demonstrate and demand change over the profit and convenience and luxuries of first world countries.

[DeSwiss]

7. Exactly.

:thumbsup:

[DURHAM D]

8. I can not follow your thought process.

"forced to pay actual costs" - What in the world do you mean?

[AlabamaLibrul]

9. More Exxon profits. Use an outbreak of democracy as an excuse, and have the more naive

supporters of democracy go out and support you as you fight for ever-higher profits.

[DURHAM D]

11. huh?

[AlabamaLibrul]

13. If there is the slightest instability in the ME, oil companies use it to charge you an assload

at the pump.

Then we have people running in to say "Bring it on", a phrase which has indicated a lack of thought about an issue since Bush, who are thinking that oil prices are merely a natural consequence to democracy. Fuck that. The people get their wishes, but we don't need $10 gallons of gas to get it. Implement price controls NOW.

[DURHAM D]

19. How the hell do you implement price controls on a commodity

when the availability of supply (cheap) is pure speculation?

[AlabamaLibrul]

22. We used to ignore OPEC prices. We could do that again. n/t

[DURHAM D]

25. Who is "we"? nt

[AlabamaLibrul]

26. America, obviously n/t

[DURHAM D]

27. Sorry but America does not collectively make pricing decisions.

And given lack of other options - don't really have choices about purchasing decisions near term.

[Spider Jerusalem]

38. Well no, not really

the US could do that when the country was self-sufficient in oil and a net exporter. US oil production peaked in 1970 and has been declining since. Current US crude oil production is around 5 million barrels a day, down from a peak of 12 million barrels a day. And 1970 was the last year the US produced enough oil to supply domestic demand; since 1971 the US has been a net importer of crude oil. And demand is at a level of about 20 million barrels a day. Unless you have any good ideas about how to use 50-75% less oil, then no, you really can't ignore world market prices.

[obxhead]

37. Tax oil companies on their profits.

It worked in the 70's.

[tekisui]

14. Costs of war, supporting despots, subsidies, etc.

[jp11]

20. We pay all that now, or at least are on the hook for it.

True it isn't taken out of our pockets directly at the pump but we'll still pay for it with upcoming and current defunding of programs, slashing of the budget etc to reduce the debt we incurred in all those things.

[DURHAM D]

23. You have oversimplified an array of complex issues. nt

[tekisui]

29. LOL. Okay. We pay what oil costs. Sleep well.

[firehorse]

24. Food is not a luxury, its a necessity. Driving gas prices up, drives of food prices.

[tekisui]

49. Which would drive the people to the streets.

Only then would the US populous wake up.

[Canuckistanian]

44. +1

We need to end this addiction to oil. AND we've got to free the Middle East from tyranny.

If that means we go without some luxuries, so be it.

[northernlights]

52. you got it.

I live in the cold northeast. I've been implementing various tactics for the past couple years. This year they are working. So far, knock wood, I've made it comfortably through -15 weather using half the oil and propane that I used to need, with only a slight increase in electric. I'm using less than I even used last year when we never hit zero.

Short of selling this place and downsizing to a tiny place with alternative heating and off grid electric (my primary goal), I still have a couple more tactics to implement.

There is still a *ton* people can do to conserve and use less. It's been ages since I saw *anybody* carpooling. In the past 3 weeks, I've seen 2 SUV's and 1 truck left *idling* while their drivers were in the supermarket food shopping. :grr:

[AlabamaLibrul]

3. No, please don't. Not all of us, apparently, have the disposable income you do. n/t

[tekisui]

5. I value freedom over profit and even over 'stability'.

I don't compromise that for fear mongering about high gas prices.

[DURHAM D]

28. Freedom for who to do what? nt

[tekisui]

30. People of the world to march, demonstrate and demand what they want.

[DURHAM D]

31. And what they want is cheap gas. nt

[tekisui]

32. Hmmm. I've not seen those protests nor have I seen those protests

squashed. :shrug:

If that is what they in fact want, I would suggest they support alternatives, because the days of cheap gas are fast passing by. Time to move on.

[DURHAM D]

33. I would suggest you read back through all of your posts -

you are arguing against yourself now.



:hi:

[tekisui]

35. Saying it does not make it so.

Nice try.

[jp11]

6. It could hit that without unrest going there business is a bunch of frightened

cowards 'uncertainty' dictates they cower in fear, raising speculative prices, keep from hiring, etc. What an excellent reason to throw caution to the wind and open up more off shore drilling with less regulation and scrutiny. Oil is expensive, our military gobbles it up like fiends, we need to up our nation production Drill baby Drill!

[Boojatta]

10. There could be Arab unrest in Japan ...

and Japanese unrest in Saudi Arabia.

However, it would be a marginal phenomenon and probably wouldn't make it into the headlines.

[firehorse]

12. I hope not, food costs will sky rocket for all of us

Milk already costs $5 a gallon. I remember when oil went over $60 a gallon, that was the explanation from milk jumping from $3 to $5 where I live. I don't really want to pay $10 for a gallon of milk or $3 for an orange. That would suck more than it sucks already.

[tekisui]

17. Which is exactlyu what is needed to get the people of the US to the streets.

[firehorse]

18. If they are paying $10 a gallon for gas, they won't be going very far

[Swede]

51. And starve to death god knows how many in the 3rd world.

And you say bring this horror on?

[tekisui]

54. It is coming regadless of what I say.

The sooner we realize and takes steps to lessen the damage the better. The world could use the wake up call, though.

[Name removed]

55. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Initech]

15. Get rid of oil subsidies and start taxing profits.

[Shagbark Hickory]

16. Thumbs down for sensationalized bullshite non-story

that has been posted her ad infinitum.

[marmar]

21. Such a non-story that you felt compelled to post in it. Fascinating.

nt

[Drix]

34. The Shock Doctrine can work both ways.

Nationalize the oil companies because, "these are troubled times", "national security", "9/11 changed everything", or whatever bumper sticker slogan is convenient at the time.

[Spider Jerusalem]

39. Nationalise what oil companies?

Do you mean "nationalise the oilfields"? You can't nationalise offshore oil assets operated by multinationals, and nationalising all domestic production would do nothing to keep the price down as long as the US remains dependent on imports for over half of its oil.

[Drix]

45. We can put a man on the moon.

We can invade sovereign nations. We can nationalize oil companies. Like I said, "9/11 changed everything".

[Turbineguy]

36. $220 actually.

But who's counting. Speculators are set to clean up.

[browntyphoon]

40. Higer gas = Higher food for families.

[jwirr]

41. That would bring our economy to a real crisis. I can see that out

here in the rural areas many will have trouble getting to work. In my daughter's case she could drive into town and stay with relatives during her weekly shift and then drive home. But it is not that easy for the families with kids. Luckily I have been talking all of our family to try to work in our local community if at all possible. Still some driving but not as far.

We also have some rural bus services that could pick up riders if they can set up a schedule that works for working people.


And that does not even discuss the problem of farming and food transportation. Who would have thought that democracy for others could means this to us!!!

[Doremus]

43. It's been well known in the oil industry for years (decades?) that peak oil was an eventuality.

They also knew approximately when it would occur.

Yet no preparation has been done to ameliorate its effects.

I guess we can thank the allmighty dollar, and those who prize the eternal quest thereof above all else.

[jwirr]

50. The almighty dollar and the oil companies and their booooshes

who ran this country for the last 30 years. If they had used their resources to get ready for this crisis they would have been the heroes instead of the villains now. Greed does rule in the hearts of man.

[lovuian]

42. Get ready because Saudia Arabia is going

and then America will be revolting

its a tsunami

[tekisui]

46. I agree.Cheap food is the only thing keeping us at home.

[Initech]

47. Someone sneezed in Libya. Gas goes up $0.19 a gallon.

[hulka38]

48. The system of ME despots

that we have dumped hundreds of billions of $ into to set up and maintain is imploding. It was inevitable. The stability we thought we had was an illusion. The $250 barrel of oil is the chickens coming home to roost.

[Posteritatis]

53. Definitely an interesting "put your money where your mouth is" situation...

Wonder how many people would stop hoping for the Saudi people to free themselves from their government if it meant it - gasp! - affected us.