NYT: In Libya, Both Sides Gird for Long War as Civilian Toll Mounts

[pinboy3niner]

In Libya, Both Sides Gird for Long War as Civilian Toll Mounts

By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM
Published: March 6, 2011

TRIPOLI, Libya — Both sides of the conflict in Libya were girding for more confrontations on Sunday, a day after militia forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi launched a new round of attacks on the rebel-held city of Zawiyah, just 30 miles west of the capital, and a ragtag rebel army moving from the east won its first ground battle to take the oil port of Ras Lanuf, about midway down the Mediterranean coast.

An hour before dawn on Sunday, Tripoli erupted in gunfire, the sounds of machine guns and heavier artillery echoing through the capital. The spark was unclear - — there were rumors of some conflict within the armed Qaddafi forces — but soon Qaddafi supporters were riding through the streets waiving green flags and firing guns into the air. Crowds converged on the city’s central Green Square for a rally, with many people still shooting skyward. The shots rang out for more than three hours, with occasional ambulance sirens squealing in the background.

Government spokesmen called it a celebration of victories over the rebels, but the rebels denied any losses; 6:00 a.m. Sunday morning is an unusual time for a victory rally, and the rally was notably well armed. Protesters in the capitol suggested it was a show of force intended to deter unrest or possibly cover up some earlier conflict. A rebel spokesman, reached over the phone, said his leadership was relying on international media reports to try to make sense of the early morning gunfire in Tripoli.

“It is very hard to reach trip, ” he said, alluding to the pervasive surveillance and recent spate of arrests. “When we talk to someone in Tripoli you put their life in jeopardy.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/07/world/africa/07libya.html

The prospect of a protracted conflict in Libya--entailing far more bloodshed and civilian casualties--is a major factor in how U.N., EU, NATO, Arab League, and African Union member states assess the necessity for establishing a no-fly zone. The more it looks like there's no quick end in sight, the greater the likelihood of strong international intervention.

[Iterate]

1. One of the more sobering comments from the past weeks

was on Feb. 22 from the UNHCR spokesperson Sybella Wilkes, who warned the EU to prepare for a possible mass exodus of Libyans.

These are not people typically given to hyperbole, but more to the point, the comment was only meaningful by realizing that they saw a conflict that would extend into months or more, the only timescale in which a large exodus could occur. This was on a day when others were hoping for a quick conclusion.

Most of the other international actions are similarly constructed -as a backstop, a point where it all ends for G, one way or another. He's a dead man walking.

[pinboy3niner]

2. "He's a dead man walking" is right

The opposition's military victories--both offensive and defensive--of the past few days suggest that a relatively quick resolution may not be unrealistic. The worst thing for Libya (and for the rest of us, in many ways) would be a protracted conflict.

The surprising news is that Gaddafi seems to be losing on all fronts--from the battlefield to the P.R. war (despite his communications advantage there). The power and strength he had as dictator seems to be evaporating before our eyes.

I really appreciate hearing your views on this, and I hope we'll see more of you in Catherina's threads.