Why were the Egyptian protesters able to succeed where the Libyan protesters have not?

[oberliner]

Anyone have any insights into why the Egyptian movement was able to force Mubarak out relatively quickly while the Libyan movement is not having the same sort of results with Qaddafi?

[uppityperson]

1. The Egyptian army was unwilling to fire on their fellows. The Libyan army is different, is willing

That is one big difference. The Egyptian army was happy to get rid of Mubarak. Moummar has a lot of people willing to kill others for him.

[oberliner]

8. But what accounts for that difference?

Mubarak had no one willing to kill for him but Qaddafi does? Is there a reason for that?

[NJCher]

9. Qaddafi is paying

He is paying his soldiers. I heard some radio interviews where his soldiers said they were getting paid but that they actually sympathized with the other side.

Sick, yes?


Cher

[CommonSensePLZ]

33. ...And ordering anyone who disobeys him to be executed. If Libya wants freedom

They must continue doing what they've been doing. They can't let themselves get their spirits down because there is no turning back now. Qaddafi and his tyrannical family and friends will only abdicate the seat of power when dragged down off it like ill-mannered dogs on top of a dinner table.

I think it can be done. I was sitting in my room this morning feeling thankful how lucky I am to not have to go through the hell his family is making for people but also a bit sad that I can't do much but hope for the best, read the events like a volley and be freaked out when I see the videos of how this stuff is really happening. How some rich guy who never smiles is ruling over millions and killing a lot of them for disliking him.

[uppityperson]

10. Because the armies are different sorts is my thought

The Egyptian army was made up of Ali from next door who signed up to protect his neighbors and not shoot them. It doesn't seem this is very common.

Moummar hired mercs and has a nasty ass army, ready to follow his orders and shoot his people.

[Raksha]

25. Don't forget that Gaddafi also kills his own troops who refuse to shoot their neighbors.

He killed 200 of them at the beginning of the uprising and set the bodies on fire with flamethrowers. That tends to make the ones who are left at least pretend they are willing to kill their neighbors. No doubt some are, but many also desert and join the opposition at the first opportunity.

[WinkyDink]

24. Mercenaries.

[MichiganVote]

2. Er....guns? Real bullets?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Khadafi is crazier than Mubarak, and more willing to have people shot.

[tekisui]

4. Gaddhafi has had willing trigger men. Whether loyalists or mercenaries,

he has found those willing to kill for him. Mubarak ordered his military to do the same, but they refused.

[panader0]

6. Khadafi-Gaddhafi--- God-awful.........

[uppityperson]

11. It is difficult to translate between languages/alphabets.

[panader0]

20. I meant the man is God-awful

not the spellings.

[uppityperson]

30. gotcha, I very much agree. He used to be awful, now is god-awful

[tabatha]

5. Because the Eyptian military and the US military

have worked together for a long time, and the US has some influence over the Egyptian military.

(See Gates' statements about the Egyptian military.)

The military is key - whoever has its support, wins.

In this case, the US having worked closely with a dictator, helped the protesters win the first round. I hope they will win all rounds.

[oberliner]

7. Very interesting insights

So you think that US influence was the main factor?

[tabatha]

12. Links

"I think that the Egyptian military has conducted itself in exemplary fashion during this entire episode,” Gates said at the Pentagon. “They have acted with great restraint and, frankly, they have done everything that we have indicated we would hope that they would do."

http://www.stripes.com/news/gates-praises-egyptian-military-for-its-performance-amid-protests-1.134148

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The U.S. military is hopeful that whatever the outcome of the Egyptian crisis, the two militaries will continue working together on protecting the region from threats, according to an Air Force Times article.

"We have had for decades a very close relationship with the Egyptian military, and we certainly hope that relationship can continue," Navy Capt. John Kirby, a spokesman for Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "They have been an important partner in the region, and thus far, they have acted very professionally in this crisis."

http://usmilitary.about.com/b/2011/02/04/egypt-a-military-partner-in-safeguarding-region.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

and I heard a TV pundit (Chris Matthews or someone) say that Egyptian military personnel were frequently here, in US military buildings, etc.

[Pirate Smile]

18. Five or six of their top Generals were at the Pentagon when the protests started. They all train

over here and we do War Games with them every year over in Egypt.

[spanone]

13. libya is keeping the media out.....we're not seeing the people getting shot

[tekisui]

15. Another good and important point. Gaddhafi took notes on what happened

in Egypt.

[Pirate Smile]

14. Professional Army in Egypt. Both Military and Government were close with US who could pressure

and influence them to not turn on their people.

We have none of that in Libya.

Edit to add - Egypt is also a strong, thousands-of-years old Country with a sense of Nationalism as opposed to tribes more loyal to their tribe then the Country as a whole like Libya.

[Blue Meany]

16. Libya has oil...

which means that Khadaffi has money to keep some military loyal and hire foreign mercenaries. The loyalty of the army is always key. Because Egypt has a huge army comprised of conscripts the generals could not rely on rank and file soldiers to fire on protestors. The army, naturally, wants to be on the winnning side in any conflict and they functioned as a "neutral power bloc" allowing Mubarak to fall, while keeping the military intact, which which was the overarching interest. However, Khadaffi has been able to peel off some loyal military leaders and bolstered them with, foreign mercenaries, who are willing to fire on protesters, when Libyans soldiers might not do so. This is similar to the strategy for suppressing protests in Iran, when ethnic minorities (mainly Arabs and Turks) were brought it from rural areas to repress protests made up mainly of Persians. As in Libya, oil revenues helped buy their loyalty. I think we can expect to see similar responses to protests in the Gulf countries.

[MedleyMisty]

17. Gaddafi is bombing them

and brought in mercenaries to shoot them.

Some of the military is defecting and joining the protesters - or at least not bombing them. It was reported that a few Libyan air force pilots landed in a nearby country rather than bomb their own people. One group of soldiers that refused to shoot the protesters was burned to death in their barracks.

Gaddafi is insane and is using everything that he has to hold on to power. He's not going to go until he's dead. He (or one of his sons, it was a few days ago and I can't quite remember) said that they would fight until they ran out of bullets.

Catherina's threads, where she keeps up a running thread of Libyan tweets, are a great resource.

[Pirate Smile]

19. One additional thing I just thought of - Egypt's top $$$ is tourism. Their economy needs

a stable, safe society for that to thrive. Libya has oil - the world will pay for it without paying much attention to what they are doing to their people.

Egypt asked Oprah to come to Tahrir Square to do a show because they need tourism to come back. (I believe she has said no so far). Egypt will be more responsive to the views of the rest of the world because of this economic imperative they have. Shutting out the news of what was happening in Egypt was not very effective although the Mubarak regime did try to do it to some degree. Of course, then they had to deal with the USA telling them to stop targeting journalists at the same time so ...

[oberliner]

21. That is a good point

I wonder if Oprah will take them up on that offer.

[JoePhilly]

22. Because the countries of the ME are not all the same.

Believing that they are is how the GOP got millions of Americans to think that Afghanistan and Iraq were the same country.

[oberliner]

26. No one thinks they are the same

Obviously there were factors that led to one result in one country and another in another country. I am curious to learn more about what people think the primary factors were in each case.

[JoePhilly]

31. There are many factors ... but here is one ...

Mubarak had been able to create a certain amount of stability for that country. And after mamy years, he really did not rely on the military to maintain control. And he was not encouraging his people to attack the US or Israel.

In Libya, that is not the case. Gaddafi's reign requires the military, and he has total control over it. And he has done as much as he could to encourage terrorism from his people against the west. And the military was used to suppress any discussion of alternatives.

So, we have two dictators, one who has tried to make his people hate the US, while also using the military to control all disagreements, and one who, in comparison was unable to do so.

In an ideal world, the people of Libya would be able to do exactly what the people of Egypt did. And so would those in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia.

In the end, the leaders, the governments, and the populace in these countries are very different.

[uppityperson]

32. Many think they are the same and they aren't. You and I don't, but yes, there are lots who do

which is quite sad (not you and I but those who see them all as the same).

[SoCalDem]

23. Libya is a fake nation, created by outsiders drawing lines on a map

outsiders who were then accepting of a tinpot despot, as long as they got some oil out of the deal..

Egypt has been a functioning "state" for THOUSANDS of years:)

[oberliner]

27. Egypt has been a functioning state for thousands of years?

I don't think that is accurate.

Wasn't it absorbed into various different empires for hundreds of years until the early part of the 20th century?

[Swede]

28. Maybe in the end Mubarrak wasn't willing to start a civil war.

Tunisia's president said something along the lines that he would not give another order that would cause deaths.

[robdogbucky]

29. The regimes confronted were very different in nature

Mubarak had what I understood to be a smaller family surrounding him for example. I have heard only of the jetsetting son, fond of money, etc.

Whereas the Gadaffi klan is enormous to begin with and very crazy and xenophobic compared to the Mubarak clan and operated with the mentality of the terrorist outsider until recent get out of terrorist jail cards were issued by US and Europe to those nuts in about 2004. Egypt has been a legit player (Arab League leader, most populous Arab nation) on the world stage for ages. As stated upthread, the relationships with the US military industrial complex has been there for one and not the other. The entire psychology of Gadaffi's regime is xenophobic, volatile and violent.

He has 7 sons out of 8 kids. The two oldest are pieces of work, with Saif el Islam being the one the world has seen front and center being interviewed and lying on behalf of da's regime. He has his PhD from LSE and is listed as an architect. Was the modern, intellectual, progressive face of this family of vampires. His one older brother is head of the Libyan Olympic Committee. The other brothers are the head of the Libyan Football Federation, nother was a lieutenant colonel in the Libyan army and is now head of Libyan State Security, and young Hannibal has a party animal bad boy reputation around Europe, causing stress to such a degree against Switzerland, well, let me just cut and paste this puppy:


"...The fifth eldest, Hannibal Muammar al-Gaddafi, once worked for General National Maritime Transport Company, a company that specializes in Libyan oil exports. He is most notable for being involved in a series of violent incidents throughout Europe. In 2001, Hannibal attacked three Italian policemen with a fire extinguisher; in September 2004, he was briefly detained in Paris after driving a Porsche at 140 kilometres per hour (90 mph) in the wrong direction and through red lights down the Champs-Élysées while intoxicated; and in 2005, Hannibal in Paris allegedly beat model and then-girlfriend Aline Skaf, who later filed an assault suit against him.<158> He was fined and given a four month suspended prison sentence after this incident. In December 2009 police were called to Claridge's hotel in London after staff heard a scream from Hannibal's room. Aline Skaf, now his wife, was found to have suffered facial injuries including a broken nose, but charges were not pressed after she maintained she had sustained the injuries in a fall.<159> On 15 July 2008, Hannibal and his wife were held for two days and charged with assaulting two of their staff in Geneva, Switzerland and then released on bail on 17 July. The government of Libya subsequently put a boycott on Swiss imports, reduced flights between Libya and Switzerland, stopped issuing visas to Swiss citizens, recalled diplomats from Bern, and forced all Swiss companies such as ABB and Nestlé to close offices. General National Maritime Transport Company, which owns a large refinery in Switzerland, also halted oil shipments to Switzerland.<160> Two Swiss businessmen who were in Libya at the time have, ever since, been denied permission to leave the country, and even held hostage for some time.<161> (see Switzerland-Libya conflict). At the 35th G8 summit in July 2009, Gaddafi called Switzerland a "world mafia" and called for the country to be split between France, Germany and Italy.<162>
Gaddafi's two youngest sons are Saif Al Arab (his name means "the sword of the Arabs") and Khamis. Khamis is a police officer in Libya.."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar_Gaddafi

As you can see, they are drenched in oil money and are rogues in even the Arab world. The boss man has accused everyone of being responsible for what foreign provocateurs say is happening but isn't, Al Qaida, the Beards (radical fundy Muslim clerics), USA, Egypt, let's see did I leave anyone out? Oh, yeah drugged up youths being duped by his undefined enemies in Africa. This is a much less sophisticated, much more violent, primitive family than Mubarak's.

I think that is a big difference. This is just a much more brutal regime. I know how can anyone say that after what the protestors that stormed state security torture headquarters in Cairo and Alexandria yesterday saw and confiscated?

Amazing times just now.


The Revolution will not be telvised but it will be on Twitter