New Polling – Democrats Lead in Three Potential Recall Elections in Wisconsin

[Ellipsis]

David Dayen Monday March 14, 2011 5:14 pm


PPP/Daily Kos has released polling for each of the “Republican 8″ State Senate districts in Wisconsin up for recall. While State Senate polling is almost unheard of due to the low name recognition, in this case the response rate was quite high, and the topic has blanketed the news in Wisconsin for the past month, so I think it’s at least credible as a good baseline. Based on this polling, Democrats lead in enough districts – three – to flip the State Senate in Wisconsin.

The poll tested each of the Republican 8 Senators – Dan Kapanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, Rob Cowles, Sheila Harsdorf, Alberta Darling, Mary Lazich and Glenn Grothman, against a generic Democrat. This is probably the best way to gauge this right now, as they are recall elections, and the actions of the Republicans in stripping public employee collective bargaining rights will be the main, if not the only, issue of the election. Here are those topline numbers.

Democrat 55
Dan Kapanke 41

Democrat 49
Randy Hopper 44

Democrat 49
Luther Olsen 47

Rob Cowles 45
Democrat 43

Sheila Harsdorf 48
Democrat 44

Alberta Darling 52
Democrat 44

Mary Lazich 56
Democrat 34

Glenn Grothman 60
Democrat 32

Grothman and Lazich were never considered winnable districts. I’m a bit surprised at the baseline spread on Alberta Darling’s race. Local progressives think that district is very winnable, in part because there’s a credible Democratic candidate, former Assemblyman Sheldon Wasserman, willing to run. In addition, Darling is the co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee, which reported out the rights-stripping bill. And, Darling will be in attendance at that big fundraiser in Washington this week for the state GOP. So I have reason to believe that one could be closer, especially when you plug in the actual candidates.

more :

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/03/14/new-polling-democrats-lead-in-three-recall-elections-in-wisconsin/



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[Arkana]

1. And they're within the margin in two more with plenty of undecideds to convince.

I'd expect you could get maybe 4-5 new Democrats out of this deal.