Worst Case Scenario Imminent-situation at the most stricken plant has spiraled out of control

[kpete]

Worst Case Scenario Imminent
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2011
Mar 14, 2011 22:28 EDT

FUKUSHIMA, Japan (Reuters) - Japan's prime minister said on Tuesday that radioactive levels had become high around an earthquake-stricken nuclear power plant after an explosion there, and there was a risk of radiation leaking into the atmosphere.

Naoto Kan urged people within 30 km (18 miles) of the facility north of Tokyo to remain indoors and the French embassy in the capital warned in an advisory that a low level of radioactive wind could reach Tokyo within 10 hours.
/03/japan_warns_radioactive_levels_high_around_plant_a.php?ref=fpblg

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Japan Faces Potential Nuclear Disaster as Radiation Levels Rise
By HIROKO TABUCHI, KEITH BRADSHER and MATTHEW L. WALD
Published: March 14, 2011

Important new developments in the Japan nuclear crisis which suggest that the situation at the most stricken plant has spiraled out of control, forcing the evacuation of workers who were trying to regain control of the reactors, according to the New York Times.

The blast appeared to be different — and more severe — than those that at two other troubled reactor at the same nuclear complex because this one, reported to have occurred at 6:14 a.m., happened in the “pressure suppression room” in the cooling area of the reactor, raising the possibility to damage to the reactor’s containment vessel.

MORE HERE:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?hp

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Live English language coverage from NHK World here
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/03/live_feed_from_japan.php#more?ref=fpblg
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4th reactor now on fire at nuke plant in Japan
by John Aravosis (DC) on 3/14/2011 10:29:00 PM
UPDATE: From Kyodo News:
http://english.kyodonews.jp/
NEWS ADVISORY: Radiation of up to 9 times normal level briefly detected in Kanagawa
11:37 15 March

BREAKING NEWS: Radiation 400 times annual legal limit measured near No. 3 reactor
http://www.americablog.com/2011/03/4th-reactor-now-on-fire-at-nuke-plant.html

Blast heard at Fukushima's No.2 reactor, radiation shoots up
TOKYO, March 15, Kyodo
MORE: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78021.html

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gamma-radiation-fukushima-downwind-ibaraki-disclosed-30-times-above-normal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/at-two-reactors-a-race-to-contain-meltdowns/2011/03/13/ABtdVDU_story.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japan-faces-catastrophic-radiation-leak-warns-people-to-stay-indoors/2011/03/14/ABdwq2V_story.html
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-20042852-76.html
http://my.firedoglake.com/scarecrow/2011/03/14/japan-nuclear-watch-third-explosion-possible-cracked-containment-at-unit-2/
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv
http://www.livestation.com/channels/123-nhk-world-english
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/14/956475/-Japan-Nuclear-Disaster-liveblog


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NYT is no longer holding back...

If all workers do in fact leave the plant, the nuclear fuel in all three reactors is likely to melt down, which would lead to wholesale releases of radioactive material — by far the largest accident of its kind since the Chernobyl disaster 25 years ago.

Reports of an imminent worsening of the problem came after a frantic day and night of rescue efforts focused largely on the No. 2 reactor. There, a malfunctioning valve prevented workers from manually venting the containment vessel to release pressure and allow fresh seawater to be injected into it. That meant that the extraordinary remedy emergency workers have been using to keep the nuclear fuel from overheating no longer worked.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?_r=2&hp

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Cooper tweeted they are leaving Sendai

due to safety concerns (ie: radioactivity) so they can't broadcast the 2nd hour live. I see on twitter that BBC, ITN & Sky News are also evacuating.

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i hardly know what to do next, go to bed, stare at the wall, go for a walk, sit and cry....
pray and kiss a loved one....
kpete


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FINAL UPDATE: from Kyodo News. Reported #4 explosion at 11:53 a.m. local time and 10 minutes later reported the fire is apparently out (as a result of explosion?)

Here's the feed:
http://english.kyodonews.jp/

BREAKING NEWS: Small amounts of radioactive substances detected in Tokyo
#
12:04 15 March
BREAKING NEWS: Fire at No.4 reactor apparently put out: Tokyo ElectricNote
#
12:02 15 March
U.S. geological body revises magnitude of Japan's mega quake to 9.0
#
11:54 15 March
Kyodo news summary -2-
#
11:53 15 March
BREAKING NEWS: Hydrogen explosion occurs at Fukushima No. 4 reactorNote

[AC_Mem]

1. Question

Could one of these reactors blowing up cause all of them to blow up?

Thanks,
Annette
:(

[Paradoxical]

4. What do you mean by "blowing up"?

[PhillySane]

9. Like the three that already blowed up

[Paradoxical]

10. They haven't blown up. The reactor buildings suffered from hydrogen explosions.

The reactors did not blow up.

[PhillySane]

13. Okay

The buildings housing the reactors blew up. Not sure I feel better about hydrogen explosions inside the buildings that house the reactors.

[Paradoxical]

14. Pretty much anything is better than exploding reactors.

[jpak]

19. Never in my life did I ever expect to see multiple reactor building explosions/fires

happening within three days of each other

do you really appreciate what is going there?

well do you?

[Paradoxical]

20. I probably appreciate it more than most.

As I have a fairly good understanding of nuclear energy and radiation. And I live less than 50 miles east of the larget nuclear power station in the United States.

[dixiegrrrrl]

7. They ARE pretty close together, and damaged. I would imagine a blowup would affect them all.

Just a logical guess.

Plus any explosion would play hell with cooling pools around the reactors.

[Peace Patriot]

17. It's the fire spreading that is the big danger...

About an hour ago I began to understand that spent fuel rods in the containment buildings could catch fire and fire will spew their nuclear material into the atmosphere. And if a complete meltdown occurred in the core also, fire would spread that material as well. The spent fuel rods contain much more radioactivity than in the cores, as I understand it, and are much "hotter" (I'm no expert)--more vulnerable to catching fire.

I don't think that the nuclear reactors' cores can explode (not sure of this) but, in a meltdown, the nuclear material is supposed to sink into a containment vessel below the core. However, spent fuel rod fire could send the material into the air--and all these reactors have tubs of spent fuel rods near them (which apparently can catch fire if the water level just goes down, not even completely).

I'm not sure what to make of this fire in Reactor #4. This reactor was shut down but it does have spent fuel rods (which are cooled in tubs of water). If workers--who must be utterly exhausted and distraught at this point--neglected to pump water to those fuel rods (and there has been evidence of mistakes--due to non-alertness, fatigue?--over the last 24 hours), or the water pumping system malfunctioned, that's possibly how the fire started. No cause has been mentioned. But why else would a plant that is shut down catch fire? This may explain the high levels of radioactivity in the area--it's the No.4's spent fuel rods on fire.

My fear is that the fire in No. 4 will spread. These units are very close together.

There has been misreporting on two fronts. (Don't know whose fault.) One, the spent fuel rods situation has received almost no attention. Two, Japan's PM just told people the following:

"Mr Edano said the figures that have been released to date measuring the level of radiation around the plant have been misquoted as micro sieverts. He said the unit attached to the figures should have been milli sieverts which are 1,000 times stronger and much more damaging to human health."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/#entry-6a00e0097e4e6888330147e33686b3970b

Jeez.

[Nothing Without Hope]

2. K & R - Here is another site that is updated frequently

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/#entry-6a00e0097e4e6888330147e33686b3970b

[Peace Patriot]

18. Thanks for that tip, Nothing Without Hope. nt

[Tx4obama]

3. Here's two links to Live Blogs

Al Jazeera Japan Live Blog: http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/asia/japan-crisis-live-blog

HuffPo Japan Live Blog (begins under the article): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/11/japan-earthquake-tsunami_n_834380.html

[jschurchin]

5. If you are a religious person

Pray for the Japanese people. They are in dire straits.

[AC_Mem]

16. Thank you

That, I can do. I will pray for the best possible outcome, whatever that may be.

Blessings,
Annette

[Ikonoklast]

6. Reported on NPR Japanese techs at the plant were in "full panic mode".

Nothing they have done so far has been successful.

It will soon do whatever it is going to do, and there is no way on Earth to stop it.

[CoffeeCat]

8. What does that mean for Japan? The rest of us?

This sounds completly dire. It sounds like a chain reaction was set off at all of
these sites, and that all of them are getting worse. It's possible that there
could be meltdowns at all sites.

What is a realistic scenario for the people of Japan if this happens and also for the
rest of the world?

Is is possible, that if big radioactive clouds get into the jet stream that this stuff
is disseminated worldwide???

[PhillySane]

11. It's possible

but we've never seen anything like this before, so no one can say for sure just yet. Best to be prepared.

[Ikonoklast]

15. All unknowable. Time will tell.

They better hope for the least awful scenario (every scenario so far is completely awful) and aggressively plan for the absolute worst, employing every available resource at their command.

What I want to know is who was the idiot that OK'ed the plan for the backup diesel generators for that plant to be located in an area that would have been flooded in a tsunami event?

If they only had power to spin the cooling pumps, maybe, just maybe this might have been averted, or at least minimized to a level below absolute catastrophe.

But lots of ifs there...if the cooling pipes weren't damaged, if the pumps still were functional, if the power lines to them weren't damaged or severed, if, if, if....




This is just plain horrible.

My heart goes out to those brave souls that are fighting to save the lives of so many others, knowing that they are sacrificing their own in the process.

[truedelphi]

21. A geo physicist I once spoke with said

Once something gets into the jet stream, within five days it has equalized.

Meaning that it will be dispersed via the wind currents so that the penguin in Antarctica and and the polar bear in the Artic get the same amounts.

Now people on the ground near the site of the catastrophe get much much more, as they're also getting stuff that doesn't go high enough to be absorbed into the jet stream.

Very shades of "On the Beach" -- a movie that showed a submarine crew that went to Australia (I think it was), as the weather man on their sub showed that beach head to be the last place the wind current would bring the radioactive fallout from a major nuclear war.

[Tsiyu]

12. Latest BBC Update

: "Just passed Eneos gas station in Yamagata where line went for over 1 km, station attendant bring out portable battery charger for cars."0309: Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano says: "Now we are talking about levels that can impact human health. I would like all of you to embrace this information calmly. These are readings taken near the area where we believe that the release of radioactive substances is occurring. The further away you get from the power plant or reactor the value should go down".0306: Winds over the stricken nuclear plant are blowing slowly towards the Kanto region, which includes Tokyo, Reuters reports.0303: Radiation is 400 times the annual legal limit near Fukushima's reactor 3, the Kyodo news agency reports.





.0256: Apologies for the delay with updating - this was due to technical problems.0241: And Mr Kan also confirms earlier reports that a fire has broken out at Fukushima's reactor 4.0210: The premier also urges people within 19 miles (30km) of the Fukushima complex in the area "to remain indoors".0207: Addressing the nation, Prime Minister Naoto Kan says that "there is a high risk of futher radioactive material coming out"



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

[Hannah Bell]

23. that is from the last presser hours ago. fire is out in #4.

[Hannah Bell]

22. there are still workers at the plant working. tbs japan presser going on right

now, 12:09 am pacific time, in japanese here:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tbstv

workers haven't "fled."

most were taken out to avoid exposing everyone to high dose; they're rotating workers.

the presser will probably be repeated with english translation on nhk english.

[suffragette]

24. kpete, I think there may have been a timeline issue with the explosion at #4

I posted this as a correction in my thread about it. But, yeah, far too many large scale events happening in succession :



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x647375#648282

***CORRECTION***

From reports I'm seeing now, this looks like timeline confusion.
I am now seeing:
The fire at the No. 4 reactor was related to the other explosions, Edano said.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/0...


OR

Early today a blast hit the number-two reactor there. And Mr Edano later said there was also an explosion which started a fire at the number-four reactor.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/fire...


Either way, that would mean there was not an explosion AFTER the fire, but that either there was an explosion before the fire in #4 OR the explosion in #2 was a factor in starting the fire.

That also means no explosion while fighting the fires (looking for a :whew: icon now).

[Hannah Bell]

26. i think the problem is that the information release goes like this:

earliest information comes from the japanese language pressers.

these are being carried live on all the japanese tv stations.

some of the japanese media + foreign media (bbc etc) broadcast translated versions of some of the japanese pressers simultaneously or immediately after.

then the foreign print media comes out sometime later. and put their spin on it like "spiralling out of control," workers "fleeing". which 100% comes from the writer.

then you have posters who are reading things at different times & posting them thinking they're the latest. then people read the old report & think it's new.


maybe 90% of the info in print, or anywhere, comes from the various pressers.

i wish there was a thread devoted to just reporting the pressers as they occur, because pretty much that's where all the info is coming from.

[suffragette]

28. Thanks Hannah. Good points all.

I even watched that presser on NHK. Of course, what I am hearing is the translation of Edano. And he sometimes starts with some info, then clarifies when reporters asks questions, as was happening yesterday.

In this case, I think it was also compounded by Kyodo's breaking headlines since those times seemed to indicate fire first then explosion.
Then, in the patterns you note, other reporters sourced Kyodo.

Now I think Kyodo may have also been putting these up as they heard the info from Edano. So they (and we) heard about the fire at #4 first, and they put up the banner, then later in the presser, he added the detail on its cause, so that was posted later and from the timeline posted looked as if it occurred after instead of before.

I kept looking for more info and once I saw the disparity, posted the correction.

You are spot on about the pressers. I saw a good report from France24 where the reporter made the same point about that being where all the info was coming from.

[jannyk]

25. BBC: Live Presser on Now - PM Japan

[Kalun D]

27. Pray For The Workers

Pray for the workers staying until the last to try to put this fire out.