Anumation map of Possible spread of radioactivity,...looks like it's heading to LosAngels CA.....

[ElsewheresDaughter]

— South of Alaska in less than a week: Hong Kong Observatory

Fears that America could be hit by the nuclear fallout from the Japan earthquake have dramatically increased as workers prepared to abandon a reactor crippled by the earthquake and tsunami last night in the face of what is set to become the world’s second worst nuclear disaster – topped only by Chernobyl. …

Scientists in the U.S. warned yesterday of a ‘worst-case scenario’ in which the highly radioactive material could be blasted into the atmosphere and blown towards the West Coast.

They said it could be picked up by powerful 30,000ft winds, carrying the debris across the Pacific and hitting the West Coast. Some estimates claimed the radiation could arrive on America’s shores by Tuesday evening, according to the AFP. …

“Right now it’s quite possible that there could be some radiation floating over the United States,’ said Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman David McIntyre. …

Must read this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1366341/Japan-tsumani-earthquake-America-nuclear-accident-radiation-alert.html

scroll down to see other charts

[Teaser]

1. Hopefully this will convince people that the US isn't threatened

and people will stop running out to buy potassium iodide.

[stockholmer]

3. you assume a huge amount when you make that statement (remember there are 600,000 spent fuel rods,..

stored in Fukushima Dai-Ichi, which are far more dangerous than active rods, plus these are NOT stored in any reactor vessels, but simply in pools of water.

The Fukushima Daiichi plant has seven pools dedicated to spent fuel rods. These are located at the top of six reactor buildings – or were until explosions and fires ravaged the plant. On the ground level there is a common pool in a separate building that was critical damaged by the tsunami. Each reactor building pool holds 3,450 fuel rod assemblies and the common pool holds 6,291 fuel rod assemblies. Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods. In short, the Fukushima Daiichi plant contains over 600,000 spent fuel rods – a massive amount of radiation that could soon be released into the atmosphere.



http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/accidents/6-1_powerpoint.pdf

plus

A MOX plutonium/uranium fueled vessel that is already in meltdown (Unit 3), an actual reactor vessel (Unit 2) that is now officially admitted to be breached, etc etc.


URGENT: SDF choppers unable to drop water on nuke reactor due to radiation
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78597.html

TOKYO, March 16, Kyodo

The Self-Defense Forces will not conduct a planned operation Wednesday to drop water from helicopters on the troubled No. 3 reactor of the Fukushima nuclear power plant because of the high radiation level around the plant, Defense Ministry officials said.

The Ground Self-Defense Force helicopters were on standby to drop water on the reactor as it is feared the reactor may have released radioactive steam due to damage to its containment vessel.

==Kyodo

[gateley]

13. Hmmmm - interesting. thanks. nt

[Teaser]

27. that tells me nothing about probable exposure levels

data without a model is meaningless.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

4. it will end up in our food chain ...this summer

[stockholmer]

19. there's already been massive amounts of radiation dumped into the ocean(Japan-biggest fishers global

[Teaser]

28. diffusion.

you do realize how many water molecules there are in our oceans relative to the amount of radiation released?

Radiation exposure over here will be minimized to near-negligible levels by diffusion.

[Johonny]

32. probably the concern is concentration up the food chain

like most marine pollutants. Small amounts in the water, but biological lifeforms might concentrate it. I imagine if you worried about it, that's what you would worry about.

[Teaser]

26. not enough for me to worry about.

The radon in basements in my area is a much more significant threat to me.

[Divernan]

8. Don't forget US Govt.'s record of lying to us about risk from disaster

The long history of exposing civilians around nuclear test sites to high dosages, going back to the 1950's,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob

"Radiological effects

Plumbbob released 58,300 kilocuries (2.16 EBq) of radioiodine (I-131) into the atmosphere. This produced total civilian radiation exposures amounting to 120 million person-rads of thyroid tissue exposure (about 32% of all exposure due to continental nuclear tests).

Statistically speaking, this level of exposure would be expected to eventually cause between 11,000 and 212,000 excess cases of thyroid cancer, leading to between 1,000 and 20,000 deaths.

In addition to civilian exposure, troop exercises conducted near the ground near shot "Smoky" exposed over three thousand servicemen to relatively high levels of radiation. A survey of these servicemen in 1980 found significantly elevated rates of leukemia: ten cases, instead of the baseline expected four.

Then most of us are aware of how Bush's White House, acting through that tool, James Connaughton, Director of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, forced the EPA to declare air quality at Ground Zero as safe, within mere days of NineEleven, resulting in exposure of nearby residents and emergency workers to toxic levels of multiple lethal heavy metals, asbestos, etc. Why? Because he and his crew wanted Wall Street up and running again immediately.

Flash forward to Dear Leader Obama, and the whitewash of Big Oil and the dangers of air and water contamination in the Gulf Area. Would you eat seafood from the Gulf? The locals know better.

And we know the financial incentives General Electric will provide to politicians of both parties to cover up the risks revealed and dangers resulting from its products.

[leveymg]

2. Can someone please explain the dosage scale shown?

[stockholmer]

5. here is a chart, there are so many news releases that switch between milli (mSv) and microsieverts

1 Sv = 1000 mSv (millisieverts) = 1000000 μSv (microsieverts)

[leveymg]

10. Thanks. Can someone match up the two different color scales? e.g., blue on the map corresponds

with what SV on the scale above? Green and orange (shown nearer the site) corresponds to what level of threat to human health on the scale above?

Thanks again.

[leveymg]

18. NHK World just announced that dosages up to 80 mSv detected 25km away from the plant

That's enough to cause a statistical rise in risk of cancer.

[leveymg]

22. Japan public radio: max level in the plant (outside bldgs), 965.5 mSv near the No. 2 reactor.

That would be close to a dosage that is fatal if sustained over 30 days.

“As of 10:22 a.m. on Tuesday, 30 mSv of radiation dose was detected between the No.2 and 3 reactors of the Fukushima nuclear plant, 400 mSv of radiation near No.3 reactor, and 100 mSv of radiation near No.4 reactor,” agencies quoted Yukio Edano, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary as saying.

Putting that in perspective, a 400 mSv dose is eight times as much as the limit radiation workers are exposed to per year.

Japan’s national public broadcasting organisation, NHK, said 965.5 mSv of radiation per hour was detected near the No.2 reactor on Tuesday morning. http://planetsave.com/2011/03/16/fukushima-50-evacuated-as-radiation-levels-spike/

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. This MIT scientist blog is a must read and should help.....keep scrolling and read entire

http://mitnse.com/

[stockholmer]

20. thanks! bookmarked, excellent find

:hi:

[inademv]

6. When they say "blasted into the atmosphere"...

Are they assuming that it would be a Chernobyl style explosion or something? From what I understand there is not actually any way in which the reactors at Fukushima can create such a blast, last I read on the potential expulsion of material the predicted maximum height was something like 500m, quite a far cry from Chernobyl's 30,000m ploom.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

7. it could happen yet...reactors 5 & 6 hold more spent fuel rods then the other 4 reactors combined

and they were the first 2 to alert to failure

They are going to fail too

http://itn.co.uk/

[inademv]

9. Yeah but they still couldn't do what Chernobyl did

I forget the details but the jist of it was that the facility and materials lack the energy even under ideal circumstances of failure to produce the same kind of blast.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

12. It may not explode like Chernobyl did but, it will be many many times WORSE than Chernobyl

[stockholmer]

15. a floor breach would change that in a massive way,(Unit 2 has a breach) especially in Unit 3 (MOX)

If 1 or more of the units has a vessel floor breach,the world will get large varying dispersement doses of radiation. The super-reactive pile of fuel pellets will congeal into a nuclear fire-fueled mass, and bore into the containment building floor, then continue boring into the earth, until it hits the water table. At this point, the water is instantly turned into a super-charged radioactive steam jet that will blow upwards with such force that it shoot through the borehole, then the building and up into the atmosphere at jet stream level.

This will be dispersed world wide, and the radiation levels will be extreme. A nuclear steam kettle, if you will.

The true nightmare is if the floor breach occurs in Unit 3 (the MOX plutonium/uranium fueled one), as not only will the force of meltdown be greater but the deadly plutonium will increase the radioactivity by exponential levels. And if any of this plutonium, even at infinitesimal levels, gets into a person, they are a dead man/woman/child walking.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All 6 units at Fukushima Dai-Ichi were either built or designed by GE

Units 1, 2, and 6 were GE-built, Units 3 and 5 were Toshiba-built, GE-designed, and Unit 4 was Hitachi-built, GE-designed.

Units 1,2,3,4,and 5 have the 'light bulb torus' Mark 1 GE containment system (the weakest type), and Unit 6 has the 'over/under' Mark 2 GE containment system.

All 6 reactors at Fukushima Dai-Ichi are now in various states of meltdown and/or systemic cooling/containment failure, the two to watch most closely are Unit 2 (probable pooling-floor vessel breach) and Unit 3, due to the plutonium/uranium MOX fuel (this is one of only 2 MOX fueled reactors in Japan). All but Unit 6 are the weakest type (Mark 1) of GE containment systems. Unit 6 is Mark 2.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edano Press Conference - Reactors #5 and #6 Now Heating up - Cooling Failure Due to Power Loss

Edano announced that power is not functioning on cooling pumps for the pools in reactors in Units 5 and 6. Both units are filled with spent fuel (far more harmful in case of meltdown due to increased isotope levels) and other radioactive materials. They are preparing for hydrogen-caused blasts of 5 and 6.

Over 11,000msv detected at front gate earlier. He called this a lifetimes worth of Radiation in one hours time.

He also said temp have been rising in both units as well. They have just now started trying to ascertain a way to keep Units 5 and 6 cool, as their previous focus was on the other 4 units.

http://yokosonews.com/live / (english trans)

http://cpswire.com/ie/live-video-streams.html

[nebenaube]

25. until it blows over an active volcano... n/t

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. good point or a typhon

[Divernan]

11. Excellent, informative post, Elsewhere's Daughter. Thanks.

Unless one has a tremendous capacity to bury one's head in the sand, or is an employee of General Electric, or owns General Electric stock, why would anyone downplay the severity of the situation?

The 50 or so workers who are still trying to contain the situation are seen as martyrs in Japan.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

The workers are being asked to make escalating — and perhaps existential — sacrifices that so far are being only implicitly acknowledged: Japan’s Health Ministry said Tuesday it was raising the legal limit on the amount of radiation to which each worker could be exposed, to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts, five times the maximum exposure permitted for American nuclear plant workers.

Nuclear reactor operators say that their profession is typified by the same kind of esprit de corps found among firefighters and elite military units. Lunchroom conversations at reactors frequently turn to what operators would do in a severe emergency.

The consensus is always that they would warn their families to flee before staying at their posts to the end, said Michael Friedlander, a former senior operator at three American power plants for a total of 13 years.

“You’re certainly worried about the health and safety of your family, but you have an obligation to stay at the facility,” he said. “There is a sense of loyalty and camaraderie when you’ve trained with guys, you’ve done shifts with them for years.”

[L. Coyote]

35. IF, IF, IF, IF, IF

EMPHASIS ON IF

"if the radiation material was to reach the upper atmosphere, it could be carried over the Pacific Ocean"

[necso]

14. The 1st animation seems to stop midstream.

And the ranges seem to be different, on the 3rd image (smaller area):

10**-1 (1/10) to 10**0 (1)
10**0 (1) to 10**1 (10)
10**1 (10) to 10**2 (100)
10**2 (100) to 10**3 (1,000)
10**3 (1,000) to 10**4 (10,000)
10**4 (10,000) to 10**5 (100,000)
10**5 (100,000) to 10**6 (1,000,000)

On the 1st image (larger area), the scales are shifted lower:

10**-2 (1/100) to 10**-1 (1/10)
10**-1 (1/10) to 10**0 (1)
10**0 (1) to 10**1 (10)
10**1 (10) to 10**2 (100)
10**2 (100) to 10**3 (1,000)
10**3 (1,000) to 10**4 (10,000)
10**4 (10,000) to 10**5 (100,000)

I'm not sure what the m^-3 means, cubic meter should be m^3.

But the two lowest ranges (which seem to be what remains at the farthest reaches) are between 10,000 and 10,000,000 times less concentrated than the highest.

For another take, here's a recent Dr. Jeff Masters' blog entry:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.ht...

The "permalink" seems to no longer work.

I have no idea what Dr. Masters' politics are; but reading his blog from time to time, I have come to the opinion that he's a serious scientist.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

16. I agree with him and I suggest that we stay out of the rain in the US foreseeable future......

beginning in a few days...it will def rain "black rain" here in NY on my veggie garden this Spring and summer.

I remember the Neveda nuke tests in the 50's an d 60's the fallout was rain that fell on NY and contaiminated the soil, the forests and plant life.....and this is a beast of a different color....a huge ugly monster

[ElsewheresDaughter]

23. not stop midstream....that's just how far the radioactivity has traveled thus far

[necso]

24. If you look at the date/time-counter

on the first image, it goes through 20110318 060000; that is, March 18th.

Afaik, it isn't March 18th anywhere in the world.

[necso]

31. Another observation

(I was going to write "A final observation", but I'm still thinking about how to interpret the data):

If the model is based upon some particle (atom; contamination) count per volume-measure (as opposed to being a "drill down" along the vertical axis), then in addition to lateral dispersion (as shown on the 2-D maps) and deposition, there also exists the issue of vertical dispersion (propagating to that distance would seem to be consistent with considerable loft). (I'm still not sure what m^-3 means in this context; m^3 is usually taken as a volume (a cube measuring a meter in all three (natural) dimensions), as opposed to a (meter x meter x meter) length in one direction; and 1/(m^3) doesn't ring a bell.)

And if so, then a scrubbing event along this vertical axis could concentrate the contamination (to some degree) beyond the parameters displayed.

(I'm interested in what the data has to "say"; and if it's valid* (accurate) and contradicts what I otherwise think, then this is more important to me than if it agrees, because it might point to something inaccurate in my holdings... something that I need to correct.)

*: I have no essentially no way of knowing whether this particular data is accurate, except as actual measurements (insofar as these measurements can be trusted) might indicate. And even then, there's the question of at what vertical height these measurements are taken.

(I'm trying to get back on more "normal" hours.)


...

I think I get it: units/(m3) ; units per m3. (m3 = m^3)

It seems terribly obvious now.

I have the same issue with other x-y measurements: what's the measurement of the "stack", "column".

[ElsewheresDaughter]

21. MIT and American Nuclear Society and like sites with relevant updates

MIT
http://mitnse.com/

ANS
http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2011/03/11/media-updates-on-nuclear-power-stations-in-japan/

World Nuclear News
ttp://www.world-nuclear-news.org/default.aspx

Brave New Climate
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

[Lucinda]

29. Thanks much for the info!

♥

[hayu_lol]

33. At this point, we are still at "The Sky Is Falling" scenario...

According to Dr. Bill Wattenberg of Lawrence Livermore Labs, most of the radiation released in plumes of any sort will(heavier particles)fall into the ocean far from our shores. Chernobyl had no containment vessels, plumes were caused by graphite fires, and the resulting radiation only traveled a fairly short distance--perhaps only a few hundred miles. To reach our shores, the heavier particles would have to travel over 6000 miles.

A catastrophic situation to be sure, but we all tend to forget that the cause was not plant failure but earthquake of an intensity that has only been reached 4 times since earthquake recording began...and the resulting Tsunami which did the actual damage.

Few REAL numbers are being released yet. I note that the work parties have yet to take up playing the guitar(g. bush)during this problem.

We need to sit back and quit dreaming up worst case scenarios that have yet to be reached.

[hayu_lol]

34. At this point, we are still at "The Sky Is Falling" scenario...

According to Dr. Bill Wattenberg of Lawrence Livermore Labs, most of the radiation released in plumes of any sort will(heavier particles)fall into the ocean far from our shores. Chernobyl had no containment vessels, plumes were caused by graphite fires, and the resulting radiation only traveled a fairly short distance--perhaps only a few hundred miles. To reach our shores, the heavier particles would have to travel over 6000 miles.

A catastrophic situation to be sure, but we all tend to forget that the cause was not plant failure but earthquake of an intensity that has only been reached 4 times since earthquake recording began...and the resulting Tsunami which did the actual damage.

Few REAL numbers are being released yet. I note that the work parties have yet to take up playing the guitar(g. bush)during this problem.

We need to sit back and quit dreaming up worst case scenarios that have yet to be reached.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

36. are you still sitting back nice and relaxed?

[cbdo2007]

37. And it will all dissipate long before it reaches our coast.