OMG? Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume - Southern California by Friday NYT

[flamingdem]

** WAIT A MINUTE: They are admitting there is a radioactive plume on the way to Socal?


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print

March 16, 2011
Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume
By WILLIAM J. BROAD

A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.

Health and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule.

The projection, by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, an arm of the United Nations in Vienna, gives no information about actual radiation levels but only shows how a radioactive plume would probably move and disperse.

The forecast, calculated Tuesday, is based on patterns of Pacific winds at that time and the predicted path is likely to change as weather patterns shift.



MORE AT LINK

[Skink]

1. We get mud rain in central Texas.

they say it is dust from the Sahara.

[peacebird]

2. extremely weak, low level "plume". Not a danger to health in SoCal from what I understand

Same happened after Chernoble.

[flamingdem]

4. The thing is they don't know do they? And no one can prove anything

since it take so long to see the effects, as in cancer deaths.

[peacebird]

I think people in Japan have every right to be concerned, and in Calif there is little reason to be

but, hey, we each have our own comfort zones. I am not overly concerned about being struck by lightening for instance, perhaps you are?
i posted a link to the Union of Concerned Scientists webpage earlier this eve that gave a lot of very good info on the probs in Japan. Did you see it?

[flamingdem]

14. I care about my health and avoiding radiation, so you can imagine

this is disturbing. I have family suffering from radiation and toxin induced cancers. If they could have only avoided it, and all because of scientific and medical arrogance.

[Ghost in the Machine]

47. Well, you can buy a dosimeter if you are so inclined...

PEN dosimeters

The advanced PEN carbon fiber dosimeters are greatly improved over other dosimeters of this type. They measure and directly read, at any time, accumulated dose or quantity of gamma and x-ray exposure. The PEN dosimeters are hermetically sealed, immersion proof and designed to satisfy military specifications for the RADIAC METER IM-264/PD and ANSI N 13.5 and N322 requirements.



http://www.drct.com/dss/INSTRUMENTATION/dosimetry/Pen-Dosimeters.html

[Maru Kitteh]

40. I think wringing our hands over minute possibilities here is an insult to Japan and her people.

I think it's selfish and classically "mee furst" Americanism.

[flamingdem]

43. It's natural to give a sh*t about oneself

Otherwise one doesn't have much left for others.

Over there for guilt trips.

[Union Scribe]

59. You know that's a damn good point.

I hadn't been able to put a finger on it until your post, but you're absolutely right. It'd be like me in the midwest worrying about the rain Katrina might push north as New Orleans drowned.

[skygazer]

54. I'm a lightning rod myself

I've been struck once and been close enough to feel the shock twice. Maybe it's that darn tinfoil hat...

:tinfoilhat:

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. to how much this will raise background yes, yes they do

cancers, again yes they do... we have the statistics.

You know I am not cheery or happy or bouncing bunnies, but I know this will be lower than the dose I got when I broke my toe, by orders of magnitude.


OUr cancer rates will go up by negligible rates as well, from all previous epidemiological data... that said WATCH what they do...

[Statistical]

68. Radiation is detectable. The amount of radiation can be easily quantified. n/t

[gkhouston]

6. but can I blame next year's crappy movie plots on radiation?

:shrug:

[flamingdem]

9. LO! yes! Mutant ninja turtle star in Battle LA! (shot in Louisiana though) nt

[Mojorabbit]

37. I am worried about the plutonium

I wish I knew more about the subject and I wish I could trust the authorities to be straight with us.

[flamingdem]

46. I will look for my Mox article but I'm with you, I'd like to know

if that is an issue or not.

[flamingdem]

49. Article: What is MOX? Not sure it answers concerns related to fallout

http://www.nirs.org/factsheets/basicmoxinfo.htm

[stockholmer]

58. the plutonium/uranium MOX-fueled Unit 3 is the true wild card(biggest explosion so far was Unit 3)

If one micro-particle of plutonium-239 (Pu-239) or any of its reactor-created isotopes formed via successive neutron capture , gets into a person, they are, unfortunately, going to die pretty quickly.



The United States is building a MOX plant at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.
30+ reactors in Europe (Belgium, Switzerland, Germany and France) are using MOX.

[TheMightyFavog]

3. California probably saw much more radiation from the Nevada nuke tests ...

Than the radiation coming from Japan.

[flamingdem]

5. This one might have cesium, plutonium? - from the MOX fuel in No. 3

so it might different anyway. Plus, I've read that the test explosions burn off most of the radioactivity vs. a vapor/smoke plume.

[ClarkUSA]

8. Cesium-137 was present in the fallout from the Cold War test blasts in Nevada

In fact, everyone in the US probably has a bit of it in their bodies because of the produce grown in CA and air patterns. It has a half-life of 30 years, after all.

[flamingdem]

Potassium Iodide doesn't work against that, but I think it does get into milk nt

[ClarkUSA]

15. It stays in the soil and water for hundreds of years. All of us probably have it in our bodies.

In varying amounts, of course.

[Cerridwen]

55. You want to play this game? I'm native Las Vegan as were my

mother and her four brothers; two of whom are (now retired) Air Force and my father who was career Air Force (look up Nellis Air Force Base). I have 2 family members who worked at Nevada Test Site and one long time friend who was responsible for Radiation health services at the Nevada Test Site.

My grandparents came here to build the highway now known as the Las Vegas Strip and two great-uncles who worked on Boulder (now Hoover) dam.

I worked with some of the Shoshone elders to get their lands back from the US gov't who was using their "barren" lands as nuclear testing sites and nuclear storage sites.

I have family members living in southern Utah who were what are now referred to as "downwinders."

Wanna play? Where, exactly, do you reside in the US that you can take radiation exposure so lightly?

[ClarkUSA]

56. WTF are you ranting about? I stated a fact. If you don't like it, I could give a shit.

[guruoo]

29. BTDT...

Last map's data taken from year I was born...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=667703&mesg_id=668037

[ClarkUSA]

45. Good find. That really puts things in perspective, doesn't it?

[guruoo]

51. Not sure how it compares...

I do recall quite clearly my mother's warnings about the tests making
it dangerous to drink rainwater, or eat snow (in eastern Tennessee).

[ClarkUSA]

57. Sure. You had a good mom. Japanese mothers will be telling their kids that, too.

But there is no reason for US mothers to be doing that. Every nuclear and biophysics expert I have heard or read concur on that point.

[Cerridwen]

53. It sure does. What part of the country do you live in?

Cancer and test site
<delete sentence for four paragraph rule>

A significant excess of leukemia deaths occurred in children up to 14 years of age living in Utah between 1959 and 1967. This excess was concentrated in the cohort of children born between 1951 and 1958, and was most pronounced in those residing in counties receiving high fallout.<11>

In 1982, a lawsuit brought by nearly 1,200 people accused the government of negligence in atomic and/or nuclear weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site in the 1950s, which they said had caused leukemia and other cancers. Dr. Karl Z. Morgan testified that radiation protection measures in the tests were substandard.<12>

In a report by the National Cancer Institute, released in 1997, it was determined that ninety atmospheric tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) deposited high levels of radioactive iodine-131 (5.5 exabecquerels) across a large portion of the contiguous United States, especially in the years 1952, 1953, 1955, and 1957—doses large enough, they determined, to produce 10,000 to 75,000 cases of thyroid cancer. The Radiation Exposure Compensation Act of 1990 allowed for people living downwind of NTS for at least two years in particular Nevada, Arizona or Utah counties, between 21 January 1951 and 31 October 1958, or 30 June and 31 July 1962, and suffering from certain cancers or other serious illnesses deemed to have been caused by fallout exposure to receive compensation of $50,000. By January 2006, over 10,500 claims had been approved, and around 3,000 denied, for a total amount of over $525 million in compensation dispensed to "downwinders".<13> Additionally, the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000 provides compensation and medical benefits for nuclear weapons workers who may have developed certain work-related illnesses.<14>

Uranium miners, mill workers, and ore transporters are also eligible for $100,000 compassionate payment under the Radiation Exposure Compensation Program, while $75,000 is the fixed payment amount for workers who were participants in the above-ground nuclear weapons tests.

link <scroll down>

[stockholmer]

61. all 6 units have produced cessium, unit 3 plutonium as well, and there are 600,000 spent fuel rods

stored at Fukushima Dai-Ichi, of which, at least 5 to 10 thousand have plutonium-238, plutonium-240 (Pu-240), plutonium-241 (Pu-241), plutonium-242 (Pu-242) and other transuranium (atomic numbers greater than 92) or actinide isotopes in them. Transuranium elements do not occur in sizeable quantities in nature and are commonly synthesized via nuclear reactors.

[kestrel91316]

39. The nuke tests were a one-time event, a point source in time. The

meltdowns in Japan will be releasing radiation for millennia.

[flamingdem]

52. This is the point that is not being perceived, this is going on for a while

milenia ... and:

In a conference call with reporters, Ira Helfand, past president of the Physicians for Social Responsibility, said a meltdown of each reactor at Japanese plant would be the equivalent of "a thousand Hiroshimas."

He said that people living as far away at Tokyo are at risk, and that any assurance that the total dose of radiation is low "needs to be taken with a grain of salt." He said that people could be susceptible to cancers if they inhale or ingest just a small dose of radiation, even if they're far away from an exploding reactor.

"No dose is safe," he said.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/16/2118661/japans-crisis-intensifies-debate.html#ixzz1GnkpNq00

[Union Scribe]

60. How so?

Both release radiation into the atmosphere. It is dispersed. The elements last as long as their decay chain dictates. I don't see how you can say that one (there were hundreds upon hundreds of atmospheric tests spanning decades, btw) is a one-off and the other "will be releasing radiation for millennia."

[stockholmer]

62. because most radioactive material in a bomb is burned during detonation,in a meltdown,it lasts long

[Union Scribe]

64. Not that I don't believe you,

but I'd like to read more about it if you have a link, as to material that's burned off versus dispersed in a bomb I mean. Obviously that's what the energy is meant to go towards, detonation, but I'm not sure of its efficiency--particularly in those early days of weapon development--and am having trouble imagining it being that much cleaner in that instant than a meltdown over days.

[stockholmer]

65. here are links on the subject, there is tonnes of info out on the net regarding this subject

http://www.scribd.com/doc/50854213/Nuclear-Fallout-From-a-Nuclear-Reactor-Accident

http://www.scienceclarified.com/Mu-Oi/Nuclear-Weapons.html

http://www.hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q5367.html

"In a nuclear reactor, the fission products build up in the fuel over time as the reactor operates; shorter-lived radionuclides, such as 131I with a half-life of about eight days, build up quickly and reach equilibrium values in the reactor core within relatively short times, whereas longer-lived nuclides, such as 90Sr, with a half-life of about 30 years, require much longer time periods to approach their maximum activities.

In a nuclear explosion, typified by a bomb, the major burden of fission products is produced essentially immediately within the very short duration of the nuclear event. When a nuclear explosion occurs in the air atmosphere, the entire inventory of fission products that is produced is, in theory, available to produce external radiation dose from the radiations, especially the gamma radiation, and potential internal dose, following inhalation and ingestion of the material. Naturally, many of the fission products become quickly unavailable because of their very short half-lives; such nuclides disappear by radioactive decay. There are many species that may be significant contributors to external dose from gamma radiation and sometimes beta radiation; these include radioactive isotopes of noble gases, such as radioactive isotopes of krypton and xenon, radioactive isotopes of halogen elements, especially iodine, and radioactive isotopes of barium, lanthanum, cerium, zirconium, niobium, cesium, and many others....."


cheers

[flamingdem]

7. NOTE: the NRC declined to givie this info and NYT got it anyway

If you ask me this is why they sent all the EPA monitors here and to the islands.

They know it is potentially much worse than they are saying but they don't want panic
or blame later on.

[ClarkUSA]

10. Probably because they didn't want to freak out all those prone to conspiracy theories & hypochondria

[flamingdem]

12. I know you're smart enough to know they are in uncharted territory with this

and you are kind enough not to resort to snarky bs if that is directed at me.

[ClarkUSA]

17. Absolutely. Don't you know about the hysteria driving sales of Geiger counters and KI pills?

Besides, all accounts concur with this news report re: the lack of danger to those living on the west coast of North America.

[flamingdem]

22. I do agree it's out of hand with the Iodide pills but holding back info

is unacceptable.

[ClarkUSA]

42. I agree but I really do think they did it out of good intentions.

[bobbolink]

11. I suspect that you have that pegged exactly right.

[WolverineDG]

13. Remember that big dust cloud from China a few years back?

I do. And I'm in South Texas.

dg

[flamingdem]

16. What was that all about? nt

[WolverineDG]

69. Happened in 2007

I worked with a lady who has breathing difficulties & she had to stay home for several days, as well as wear a mask for a few more when the doctor finally let her come back to work.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/20/us-dust-china-idUSTRE56J3YH20090720

dg

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Notice that *IS* the UN

not OUR weather service...

I can hear it now, black helicopters and all

[flamingdem]

32. Beck will be joyful that the lefties in Hollywood are getting dosed!

And the UN is in cahoots!

[Angry Dragon]

20. The battle lines are drawn

DU has people on both sides trying to figure out if this is something that we should worry about

How about we DEMAND that our elected officials tell the American people the truth for a change
If they feel that they have trouble doing that then all congress people from states on the west coast can stand on the beaches and tell the people that there is nothing to worry about instead of hiding behind lies.

[slay]

27. Oh we're far past truth at this point

we are in - let's avoid panicing "the people" - mode. I'm all with ya - i'd rather know the truth. Just don't expect it from our government and certainly not the Obama admin which is turning out to be just as secretive as the Bush one! Hopefully our scientists will tell us the truth.

[Angry Dragon]

35. And if the scientists do tell the truth they will be charged

with violating National Security

[camila flor]

21. Laguna Verde

We have a nuclear plant in Veracruz. Supossedly near a fault line.

[suffragette]

36. Welcome to DU camila

:hi:

[flamingdem]

23. Happy News: There's nothing like a good plume! nt

[flamingdem]

26. Sad News: This is perhaps the beginning of many plumes nt

[Iwasthere]

24. Some is already there

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x662854

[flamingdem]

28. Yup, holding back information from the public

There will be workarounds on the web popping up. Funky geiger counters though and it may be more important to know the composition of the plume.

[Hannah Bell]

44. independent monitors

http://www.radiationnetwork.com/

been watching it for two days. no trend.

[guruoo]

25. Maps showing fallout patterns from 50's 60's atomic testing in the US

[flamingdem]

30. Wow, it went so far and wide nt

[kestrel91316]

41. No one could have forseen that.....

:sarcasm:

[kestrel91316]

31. Just try to imagine how very happy I am right now......

[flamingdem]

34. It would be nice to have access to info to really know

whether this warrants staying inside.. but then there will be more later so..

[HarveyDarkey]

33. I usually ignore threads that start with OMG

I should have ignored this one.

[flamingdem]

38. You can't connect the reference? OMG refers to Valley Speak y'know Southern California..? nt

[chowder66]

48. wonder if insurance companies

will say we have a pre-existing condition (minute exposure) and our rates must go up again.

[flamingdem]

50. You know it!

They are scheming right now about how to deny cancer claims that are related to nuclear disasters.

[stockholmer]

63. in the for-profit USA insurance industry, life is a pre-existing condition

:grr:

[Modern_Matthew]

66. You have a right to inquire about it. Anyone that disagrees has issues. nt

[Tanelorn]

67. Should we be reading 'On The Beach' again?