Leading edge of radiation to hit Cali by late friday

[nadinbrzezinski]

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Follow the latest events around the Pacific Rim after an 9.0-magnitude earthquake off Japan's coast triggered a devastating tsunami.

Blog: Mar11-12 - Mar13 - Mar14 - Mar15 - Mar16

(All times are local in Japan GMT+9)

12:37pm
The official death toll of the earthquake and tsunami has risen to 5,198, the Japanese police say. Thousands are still missing.

11:45am
The New York Times has reported that a United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific, and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/asia/disaster-japan-march-17-live-blog

mums the word

[Ptah]

1. How much radiation?

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. See post seven

[Quixote1818]

11. Nothing to even remotely worry about. nt

[calimary]

2. Time for that ol' standby duct tape and plastic sheeting.

:eyes: :shrug:

[Selatius]

3. If the Japanese can contain the situation, the radiation dose we'll get should be low.

I don't know what would happen if most or even all of the fuel rods at Fukushima Pool #4 melts.

[Hugabear]

5. That's a huge whopping IF

My gut feeling is that we haven't seen the worst yet, not even close

[Zoeisright]

8. Yep. And some people are much more sensitive to radiation than others.

We'll probably never how how many cancers this latest nuclear disaster causes.

[aquart]

47. You know what? Even that isn't the end.

My stepmother went to Nagasaki as a 20-something tourist (worked for the Red Cross) in 1946. Came home. Got thyroid cancer. Didn't kill her. Then it was stomach cancer. Supposed to kill her. Didn't. Got her finally with breast cancer IN HER 70s. She fought cancer for fifty years and it didn't get her till she was weak and old.

And that was all the old methods. We've gone past them.

Keep Rose Bassis in mind.

[Lars39]

53. You seem to be unaware that treatment depends on access.

No insurance, no money...no access to treatment, or at best minimal treatment.

[flamingdem]

20. Yes, this is the point, there could be more plumes coming our way nt

[AndyTiedye]

44. How Much Radiation If It All Goes Up?

Are there any estimates for how much radiation would be produced if all 6 plants go up, along with their 40 years worth of spent fuel suspended above each reactor?
:nuke::nuke::nuke::nuke::nuke::nuke: :scared:

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. I want to know WTF this is going to do to the Pacific Ocean and everything in it.

How much radiation is going to make it here? I want to know how prepared we need to be. This has to be worse than the "officials" are letting on. They're being so wishy-washy with the FACTS. That leads me to believe this is BAD. Am I right? Should we be worried here in the states? I don't trust ANY pro-nuke people. They're just covering their own asses and $$$$$. I want the TRUTH.

[Codeine]

6. It won't be much at all.

Presumably far less than a long plane flight or a trip to the dentist.

[readmoreoften]

43. So all the fish and plankton are taking a trip to the dentist?

[hlthe2b]

17. Remember that the Pacific withstood all that nuclear bomb testing...

which is quite different in its intensity and risk by many many orders of magnitude. And, even then the high radiation/harmful effects were fairly localized. Not that I relish any spread of radiation, mind you, but my concern still is largely for those in Japan. Yes, there will surely be some plume that arrives eventually to the west coast, HI, and AK, but it is very unlikely to hold much radiation, particularly since the bulk should have degraded by the time it gets there.

Remember, even after Chernobyl, the US never received any appreciable radiation-- not to diminish at all the horrendous impacts on neighboring countries to the Ukraine.

[flamingdem]

21. Watch out for arrogant know-it-alls who got an A on a physics test one time

and want to tell you not to even think about radiation, it's just like flying in a plane bla bla

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hlthe2b]

29. Who is saying not to even think about radiation?

Just curious...:shrug:

On edit... Never mind..... I see.

[upi402]

23. I

don't trust nuclear advocates either, I remember 3 Mile Island and all the lies. Still lying too.

I cleaned the store shelf of canned salmon. I wont eat anymore fresh. Canned is wild salmon - farm raise salmon turns to jelly when canned. I bought our last 2 gallons of milk for a while -thyroid cancer sounds bad.

I don't know how much will make it here, of course, but the only safe dose is zero. Here's a jet stream map if you're interested;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

[in_cog_ni_to]

24. Thank You.

I'll check it out.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Got a better map for you

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

and there is more, get dry milk, or tetrapack milk

[aquart]

54. Yes, thank you. Stays offshore Russia and gets the Aleutians.

Doesn't bother China at all with this map. That Milk from California Cows ad needs retirement immediately.

[aquart]

46. Wow. I can see why Russia and China were worried.

[Prometheus Bound]

48. Could you explain that? I feel like I've missed something.

It seems to be moving away from China and Russia.

[aquart]

51. Yeah, basically it heads straight for us.

Except where it doubles back and goes northwest. They aren't getting off, not by a long shot. Not by that map.

[closeupready]

50. There are still people on this board saying TMI was a nuclear success story.

:eyes: So excuse me if I take everything such people say with a grain of salt.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Ok at the risk... time distance

here is some of the theory

Radiation dissipates exponentially. The best way to explain this is... if you are standing by a hose set on droplets.

You are at the mouth, you get soaked. You are at the end you may not even get that wet

The droplets in this case are even smaller, so what we should get here is much less than I got on my foot when it got x-rayed when it broke... by orders of magnitude.

Now if they get the pool go off and all that we may get some more.

The problem is not the extremely small rise in background, but that this is cumulative, so as long as they have a leak we will continue to get this...

This is part of the problem.

Oh and watch what they do, not what they say.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. oh and on furhter news US State will start geting americans out of Japan

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. The U.S. is now taking U.S. citizens out of Japan or IF they start

taking U.S. citizens out...we will know what's coming?

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. realize some of that might be military dependents

I am sure they started flying those out with the C5s... but they need to evac them for the military to fully do it's job.

The charters gong to Narita are probably for other civies.

realize other countries started upwards of two days ago

[hlthe2b]

19. they aren't moving them from Okinawa or Guam....

So, keep that in perspective. The US is 5000 miles away.

[Jmaxfie1]

14. How long do they think radiation will continue to drift.

Even after they fix the leak I would imagine that already escaped radiation would continue to make its way here. So this could be a long term concern then?

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. As long as they don't plug the leak as it were

Being coloquial here

[kestrel91316]

25. If there is a meltdown, the fuel fire will burn underground for millennia,

spewing radiation into the atmosphere all the while. And it all settles right here in SoCal, where we grow most the produce in the US.

Therefore send not to ask for whom the bell tolls - it tolls for thee. John Donne

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Why entombing the whole facility will have to be done

and hope that does not fail...

[glinda]

30. I think they hired BP & Hellaburton to help.

[aquart]

45. Bitter humor but you made me laugh.

[kestrel91316]

34. Prediction: total meltdown of all 6 reactors will occur. The US will eventually

decide that, as a matter of national security (to prevent the poisoning of our entire nation), they will take over the entombment project. Japan will step aside and allow this.

[flamingdem]

35. What do you think we can do here in terms of the continuing radiation

that will be coming out of that area for ? months?

It's really too much to contemplate.

[kestrel91316]

55. I am thinking about that, being in CA. I will have to reconsider my

foot transportation preference and maybe go with a bus pass and take the buses EVERYWHERE. I am car-free.

And I will have to consider daily showering and washing all my clothing after wearing outdoors once. And keeping the windows/sliding doors closed even in nice weather (and relying on AC far more). And not buying any more local produce. Or dairy.

And begging my clients to keep their cats 100% indoors so as to avoid radioactive dust in their fur (a danger to clients AND ME AND MY STAFF).

I do not want to have to do all this.

[kestrel91316]

56. On the up side, I can cancel plans to buy a bike to replace mine, which was

stolen recently. Outdoor exercise will be ill advised.

[aquart]

52. Why us???? Doesn't Russia know how to make a reactor grave?

[kestrel91316]

57. WE will be getting the lion's share of the fallout, so WE will be a lot more

upset by the situation than Russia.

[Ikonoklast]

12. Good thing I went shopping.

Moo.

[flamingdem]

22. bingo! At least it's something we can do nt

[handmade34]

15. work has me headed

to Seattle this weekend and then SF... ugh

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. pretty nifty weather simulation

and no the units are not in anything I can read... arbitrary

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

[Arugula Latte]

32. Seems like the jet stream is father north; I would have thought it would hit us here in the NW

:shrug:

[flamingdem]

33. You got lucky for this round!

It's usually more in the Washington zone from what I've seen.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. Think spring pattern... not winter pattern

[flamingdem]

40. So Socal gets more prevailing wind from Japan in the spring?

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Yeah, it comes down

the real cold lows over the north push it north.

In the sumer we even get trade winds go into Hawaii...

How to explain it...



Pictures are always best

[flamingdem]

37. Do you know if the isotopes in the plume are mostly cesium? Strontium?

Plutonium even? Does that play into whether this is different from other fallout like Chernobyl?

I'm starting my googlethon on this now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. All I know there is a plume coming

I HOPE the AF flies a sniffer plane or two.

[Hatchling]

39. How will the rain we are expecting in San Diego affect this?

Drizzle over the weekeand with solid rain on Monday. Is it good or bad?

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Bad, that will bring down whatever contaminaition is in the

atmosphere.

It stil should be ridiculously low, but

[tomm2thumbs]

49. website with tracking stations - as reference anyway

http://www.blackcatsystems.com/RadMap/map.html

I'm sure there are others, but it has a nice cross section compared to others I found